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"April 28:Market Risk - China Stock Markets Hit Six-Year Low
Author: Ellen J. Silverman
Date: 2005-04-28
Share prices on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, China's two stock markets, again hit new six-year lows amid thin trading on Monday on fears of market capacity expansion caused by new stock issues.
Share prices on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, China 's two stock markets, again hit new six-year lows amid thin trading on Monday on fears of market capacity expansion caused by new stock issues.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, the widely accepted benchmark index for the Chinese stock market, fell 11.22 points to close at 1157.97 points, a new record low for the six-year period since 1999. The previous record low of 1162 points was set less than a month ago. Meanwhile, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index lost 0.51% to finish the day at 3160.60 points. Combined transactions of the two markets were about 12 billion yuan (or $1.5 billion) for the day, a relatively thin volume. This indicated that investors were still reluctant to enter the market despite the record low index.
As the two markets have slid for eight consecutive days, with the Shanghai composite index declining almost 8%, observers expect a technical rebound may appear at any time. Over the past few days, high-tech stocks and cheap stocks led the fall, while a dozen or so mid-size capitalization blue-chips heavily invested by securities investment funds and QFIIs (qualified foreign institutional investors) were the leading gainers.
All Chinese listed companies are required to announce their 2004 annual reports and 2005 first quarter reports before April 30th. Many poorly performing companies have been in announcing annual reports, leading to concentrated release of price risks. Analysts say the market is now at a bottom, though it is still difficult for a rally to occur. Investors fear that following the giant additional stock issue of Baosteel, Chinas top steelmaker, some leading banks such as Bank of China, China Construction Bank and the Bank of Communications may make huge initial public offerings this year.
However, there has been positive progress made in restoring the financial heath of the Chinese stock markets. A solution to reverse recent declines is to the split share structure of listed companies, which many observers feel was the most direct cause of the 40% market decline since 2001. Shares of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed companies have been divided into two types: negotiable shares held by the public, and nonnegotiable shares held by the state and legal entities. The government planned to make all shares negotiable, and this triggered a market plunge because the prices of negotiable shares are much higher than those of nonnegotiable shares.
Several weeks ago, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the regulator of the securities industry, said that appropriate conditions now existed to resolve the split share structure problem. Investors might be given compensation when shares held by the state and legal entities were redefined as negotiable shares. But a specific plan to resolve the problem has not yet been unveiled. Before this problem is solved, it is difficult for the market to rally because investors find it difficult to choose which stocks they should invest in.
Another problem may be a lack of new money flowing into the stock market. In the Chinese stock markets, 90% of investors are individual investors and are usually reluctant to enter the market when the market is still bearish and the share price is still falling. In this sense, investor confidence is a critical prerequisite for a turnaround.
When the shares held by the state and legal entities, which are valued at more than twice the current market capitalization, become negotiable on the secondary market, who will buy these shares? Tremendous downward pressure will be put on the market if a proper solution is not found. On April 24th, the Chinese legislature began to debate revisions to the Securities Law, which may remove state-owned enterprises and banks from the list of those banned from trading on the secondary stock market. This may send a favorable signal to the market, but these firms are unlikely to be permitted to enter the market in the short term.
The securities authorities and even the central government have adopted favorable policies one after another over the past few months to rally the stock market. Most recently, the healthy development of the stock market was stressed at Premier Wen Jiabao's government report delivered to the annual session of the National Peoples Congress on March 5. Earlier, the stamp tax rate on securities trading was lowered from two per thousand to one per thousand beginning on January 24th and on January 21st at the plenary meeting of the State Council, China's highest governing body, ensuring steady operation of the financial sector and promoting the healthy development of the securities market was stressed as one of the nation's seven key tasks for the first quarter of 2005. All these developments represent a policy signal to stimulate the domestic stock markets, which have plunged more than 40% since June 2001."