repescado do próprio clubeinvest.
gráfico do dow corrigido da inflação. notem o tempo que é preciso até recuperar realmente o capital investido no topo dos bull markets.
cumprimentos,
bluexip
Só para dar uma continuação....sugiro o seguinte artigo:
An Anatomy of Bear Markets (April 13, 2006)
http://www.safehaven.com/article-4965.htm
penso que seja uma leitura deveras interessante para se perceber toda a complexidade deste fenómeno...
BN.
PS: também tem bonecos... ;D ;D ;D
Boas ,
Pelo grafico podemos considerar que estamos num periodo de acalmia comparando com outros periodos de elevadissima volatilidade .
Acho que os meios de comunicação(internet, comunicação ao nível global ) vieram tornar o mercado mais previsivel e por isso mesmo menos volatil .
Abraços
só um aparte...não estou de acordo com tudo o que vem escrito no artigo...
nomeadamente a parte final.... ;)
BN.
Semitela...aquela queda de 29 a 32 então, faz parecer tudo uma maravilha! ;D ;D
bluexip repare que nesse gráfico há descidas fortes da bolsa nos anos imediatamente a seguir a altas dos preços do petróleo, designadamente após 1973-74 e após 1980-81, alturas em que os preços do crude tiveram subidas fortíssimas.
Para bom entendedor... ::)
Citação de: alpino em Janeiro 06, 2008, 23:38
bluexip repare que nesse gráfico há descidas fortes da bolsa nos anos imediatamente a seguir a altas dos preços do petróleo, designadamente após 1973-74 e após 1980-81, alturas em que os preços do crude tiveram subidas fortíssimas.
Para bom entendedor... ::)
está tudo muito certo alpino mas quando é que sabe que a subida no petróleo acabou ou está no pico para determinar que a queda das bolsas vem a seguir? é que a sopeira do vizinho tem-me chateado desde 2006... lol
cumprimentos,
bluexip
Achei didático este texto...se bem, que é sempre mais fácil falar do que resistir... :-\
"Market's Sell-Off Got You Worried?
January 08, 2008: 08:05 PM EST
Jan. 9, 2008 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --
Market slumps often take big chunks out of the value of stock funds, tempting long-term investors to take remedial action. They might want go to cash. They might feel compelled to rotate to defensive areas like bond or value funds.
It's probably a big mistake -- not so much the move, but the timing.
Since the market's high in October, the Nasdaq composite is 14% off its high. The S&P 500 is down 11%. And the average U.S. diversified stock fund tracked by Morningstar was off 9.57% for the three months ended Jan. 7.
But whether you're a pedal-to-the-metal growth investor or a follower of modern portfolio theory with assets spread from here to kingdom come, reacting to short-term market fluctuations can be harmful to your financial health.
Why? Because it increases your chances of buying high and selling low. And that just about guarantees worse results than a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.
Timing disrupts the natural process of compounding earnings, and bad timing destroys it. Take a fund that earns an average annual 10% a year. It may fall 10% or more in any given year and rise 12% or more in other years.
If you're like most knee-jerk investors, you may sell after a fund has fallen 10%, 15% or 20%. You may save your portfolio from further decline of 15%, 10% or 5%.
But when do you get back in? Investors ruled by emotion often won't re-enter until the market or a leading fund is up 10% or 20% from the bottom. That's a lot to leave on the table after taking a 10% to 15% hit.
After a double-digit rise, how much more can you expect the market to rise before it noses over into another correction?
Smoothing The Ride
And make no mistake, timing fund buys and sells to beat the market is not easy. Fabian Wealth Strategies of Costa Mesa, Calif., uses moving averages to determine when to enter and exit funds in portfolios. The Fabian compounding plan has generated a solid average annual return of 12.11% over the past 30 years. Along the way, it's avoided some nasty dips.
But since the end of 1999 -- near the start of the crippling 2000-02 bear market -- the compounding plan's annual return averaged -0.45%.
What if you had tried to buy and hold? Since March 31, 2000, through Dec. 28, 2007, the average U.S. stock fund tracked by Morningstar Inc. (NASDAQ:MORN) delivered an average annual return of 3.35%, while the S&P 500 came in at 6.35%.
The best many advisers hope to do is smooth out the ride so their clients will see a 10% decline when the market is down 20% or more.
There is a price: upside potential. No system is perfect. Most will get you in either before or after the low and get you out either before or after the high. So instead of a gain from, say, a low of 10 to a high of 20, you're more likely to get a gain from 12 to 18.
Defensive timers argue that their way serves the purpose of keeping their clients positively engaged in the market. They can sleep at night. They never have to explain to their spouse that they lost 30% or more of the nest egg, with hollow-sounding promises that it's only temporary.
But savvy investors know there is gold in volatility -- even for buy-and-hold investors. Sitting through corrections and bear markets can do wonders for your financial health, as long as you're in a properly diversified portfolio.
Many stock funds fit this bill, including many growth funds and funds based on the major market indexes.
Look what happened to the average U.S. stock fund over the past 10 years, which included the worst bear market in a generation. It returned an average annual 6.8%. That was below the S&P 500's long-term average annual gain of closer to 10%. But U.S. stock funds still beat bond funds' average annual 4.52%.
If you had held on to a diversified portfolio, you would have done better than just about any other strategy. All it took was guts and knowledge.
Why does buying and holding a diversified portfolio work over the long run? Because every bear market is followed by a bull market that pushes values to new highs. And much of the gain often comes in a quick, initial spurt upward.
So if you're a long-term investor in a diversified portfolio and are biting your nails over the market's recent sell-off, what's your best more?
Probably sticking with your plan, whether it's buy-and-hold or another approach that's gotten you through tough times in the past.
Newstex ID: IBD-0001-22119764
Originally published in the January 9, 2008 version of Investor's Business Daily"
Citação de: bluexip em Janeiro 06, 2008, 22:16
repescado do próprio clubeinvest.
gráfico do dow corrigido da inflação. notem o tempo que é preciso até recuperar realmente o capital investido no topo dos bull markets.
cumprimentos,
bluexip
Boas Bluexip,
Fizeste bem em repescar esse gráfico ;)
Esse gráfico foi por sua vez «repescado» por mim algures no ano 2000, depois de se ter já iniciado o Bearmarket, na altura publiquei um artigo no Bolsainvest, que por sua vez trouxe para o Clubeinvest uns anos mais tarde ;)
Aproveitei para re-compilar o artigo aqui:
-
Será que a Bolsa é tão rentável no longo prazo como se pensa ? (//bolsa/show_futures_technical_analysis.php?id=8)Apesar do artigo ter sido escrito num contexto especifico (no ínicio de um dos maiores Bearmarkets de sempre), e do meu próprio sentimento ser extremamente bearish nessa altura, penso que continua actual, embora se o escreve-se hoje em dia possivelmente iria retirar conclusões um pouco diferentes ;) Afinal nessa altura tinha apenas 4 aninhos de mercado ;)
Citação de: alpino em Janeiro 06, 2008, 23:38
bluexip repare que nesse gráfico há descidas fortes da bolsa nos anos imediatamente a seguir a altas dos preços do petróleo, designadamente após 1973-74 e após 1980-81, alturas em que os preços do crude tiveram subidas fortíssimas.
Para bom entendedor... ::)
Alpino, o periodo de quedas a que te referes no gráfico deflaccionado, refere-se a 1965 a 1981, se comparares com o gráfico não deflaccionado (que podes ver no artigo que mencionei acima) o que vais encontrar é um grande periodo de lateralização...
A grande «crashada» que se verifica no gráfico deflaccionado é exactamente a grande inflação que esteve presente nesse periodo.
um abraço !
muito interessante esse estudo, lembro-me de o ter lido faz muito tempo, mas foi bom reler outra vez.