se o pior ainda está para vir...
--------------------------
But first take a look at this chart that shows how a company that provides bond insurance has taken a beating over the past seven months. Ambac Financial Group, which guarantees commercial and municipal bonds, is just one bond insurer being hurt by concerns over the declining value of the bonds they have insured. And, to top it off, bond-rating agencies have promised to review the AAA ratings of the bond insurers themselves. When will it end?
A Fitch Ratings já reduziu o rating da Ambac para AA-
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/bloomberg-on-ambac-ratings-cut.html
Pelos vistos andam também um pouco desorientados... :-\
S&P Will Review Bond Insurers With New Assumptions (Update3)Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's will start a new examination of bond insurers, one month after affirming the companies' AAA ratings, because losses on subprime mortgages will be worse than the firm anticipated.
The ratings company will examine whether insurers including MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. have enough capital to withstand reductions in the ratings of the mortgage-backed securities they guarantee. The credit test will be completed within a week, said Mimi Barker, a spokeswoman in New York.
S&P is now assuming losses on 2006 subprime mortgages will reach 19 percent, up from 14 percent, as housing prices decline further than previously thought. That may make S&P more likely to downgrade the companies along with the mortgage-backed securities they guarantee, threatening the viability of the bond insurance business itself. Issuers buy insurance for the sole reason of attaching the AAA rating to their debt.
``The rating agencies have lost as much credibility as the bond insurers,'' said Richard Larkin, a municipal bond analyst with JB Hanauer & Co. in Parsippany, New Jersey.
``Every time you turn around they're changing their minds about what's going to happen in the subprime mortgage market.'' After completing a test of the financial guarantors on Dec. 19, S&P put the AAA ratings of MBIA, Ambac, Security Capital Assurance Ltd. and CIFG Financial Guaranty on negative outlook. The firm placed FGIC Corp.'s AAA rating under review for a possible downgrade.
19 Percent Losses
The new loan-loss assumptions ``reflect the growing economic consensus that U.S. home price declines will be larger than previously forecasted and that the slump in the U.S. housing market is expected to last far longer than previously anticipated,'' S&P said yesterday.
Late last year the three major credit rating companies said they were reexamining the capital levels of bond insurers after widespread downgrades of securities backed by subprime mortgages. The reviews triggered efforts by the bond insurers to raise capital.
Earlier today Ambac announced plans to sell $1 billion in equity and equity-linked notes and said it was cutting its dividend by 67 percent. Fitch Ratings had given the company until the end of the month to raise $1 billion to avoid a cut of its insurance rating to AA+.
Fitch also affirmed MBIA's AAA rating, citing its completion of a $1 billion surplus note sale last week. The notes priced at a yield of 14 percent. Over the long term, MBIA and the rest of the industry will still have to address additional losses related to subprime-mortgage securities and a drop in new business, Fitch said.
Moody's Investors Service said today it may cut Ambac's AAA credit ratings after the company reported $3.5 billion of writedowns on securities it guarantees and replaced its chief executive officer.
To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Richard in New York at
[email protected] Last Updated: January 16, 2008 23:02 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a29C7jiILKT8&refer=home
Bond insurers may see AAA ratings cut: FitchPosted On:
Nov. 08, 2007 12:19 PM CST
...
Fitch also said there is a "moderate probability" Ambac Assurance Corp. and Security Capital Assurance may experience contraction in their capital cushions, under Fitch's analysis. Ambac said Tuesday that it named Paul Burke head of fixed-income investor relations to deal with investors who "analyze and invest in securities backed by Ambac's triple-A rated guarantee."
Investors are questioning bond insurers' "AAA" bond guarantees due to their subprime mortgage exposure. Before joining Ambac, Burke was a managing director of JPMorgan Chase's securitization business.
Fitch also said MBIA Insurance Corp. has a "low probability" of a reduced capital cushion due to a lower level of exposure to higher-risk CDOs.http://www.businessinsurance.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?newsId=11550
S&P warns it may downgrade bond insurers' AAA ratingsBy Alistair Barr
Last update: 12:15 p.m. EST Dec. 19, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's said on Wednesday that it may downgrade the AAA ratings of bond insurance units of Ambac Financial, MBIA Inc., Security Capital Assurance, and Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., part owned by private-equity giant Blackstone Group. The agency also slashed the rating of ACA Capital, to CCC from A. S&P said expectations for the performance of insured subprime residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations have deteriorated. Bond insurers exposed to these securities may have to pay claims or see downgrades to parts of their portfolios, leaving their capital levels too low to keep AAA ratings, the agency explained.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/sp-warns-may-downgrade-bond/story.aspx?guid=%7BB86BF092-FFD4-4B0C-938E-549534E15FDA%7D&siteid=msn
Isto parece uma espécie de Agoirento:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=112411
No entanto não deixa de ter alguma razão!...as bond insurers são sem sombra de dúvida a peça vital na engrenagem!...é para acompanhar de perto!
cump.
Ui...ui....
MBIA: Priced for Catastrophe
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120071150488302379.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&page=1
Ambac downgrade may restrict municipal bonds
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/348115_bondinsurers21.html
ACA Capital Gets Second 'Forbearance Agreement'
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120088749602104183.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Ambac on negative watch after cancelled equity offering - S&P
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22392149.htm
TFN NEWS BRIEFING: Banking and insurance highlights to 15:45 GMT
2008-01-19 11:45:52
Ambac downgraded, cities seen at risk
NEW YORK (AP) - A downgrade of bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:AKT) (NYSE:AKF) (NYSE:AFK) (NYSE:ABK)
is likely to have far-reaching effects, making it more difficult for cities to
issue new bonds and forcing further write-downs at financial services companies,
analysts said Friday.
Ambac posts $3.3 billion loss but shares surge
http://www.reuters.com/article/bankingfinancial-SP/idUSN2247543820080122
E pronto...por aqui me fico...já fiz muito serviço público por estes dias!! ;)
UI!.............................
Municipal bonds downgraded with Ambac
January 22, 2008: 02:12 PM EST
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22435993.htm
.......... :o
Boa noite
Apenas mais um pedaço para os interessados
Ambac Reports Loss, Talks With `Potential Parties' (Update3)
By Christine Richard
Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc., the first bond insurer to lose its AAA credit rating because of subprime mortgages, is considering ``strategic alternatives'' after posting its biggest-ever loss. The shares jumped as much as 52 percent on optimism the company may be sold.
The second-largest bond insurer posted a fourth-quarter net loss of $3.26 billion, or $31.85 a share, after writing down the value of credit-derivatives tied to loans made to homeowners with poor credit by $5.21 billion, according to a statement by the company today.
New York-based Ambac, which replaced its chief executive officer and scrapped a $1 billion equity sale last week after the shares dropped 71 percent, said stockholders and ratings companies are ``underestimating'' its ability to weather a decline in the value of mortgage securities. Fitch Ratings cut Ambac to AA from AAA, casting doubt on the company's guarantees on $556 billion of municipal and structured finance debt.
``They can't issue equity and they can't issue debt,'' said Robert Haines, an analyst at bond research firm CreditSights Inc. in New York. ``The new CEO might be prepping the company for a potential sale.''
Michael Callen, who became interim CEO after Robert Genader left last week, said in a statement today that Ambac is ``exploring the attractiveness'' of various alternatives. He wasn't more specific.
in Bloonberg.com
Artigo completo
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHJS0.q_ZGrg&refer=home
Boas leituras antes de bons negócios
Ui..........não há dúvida que estes gajos são uns inconscientes!!!...tanto bilião a arder por erros tão estúpidos...a sustentar crescimentos falsos! >:( :o
Ambac, MBIA woes could spark more bank losses
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2263708920080123
..."That could mean more volatility for global financial markets, which swooned on Monday partly on fears about the fate of U.S. bond insurers.
"Further downgrades would likely kick off yet more write-downs" by banks and brokers, said Christian Stracke, an analyst at research firm CreditSights, in a report on Tuesday.
Global banks have already announced nearly $100 billion in potential losses, according to figures from brokerage Friedman Billings Ramsey.
But a severe downgrade of the bond insurers "could have truly systemic implications for the global banking system," Stracke said."....
Massachusetts' regulator subpoenas bond insurers MBIA, Ambac
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2314877120080123
....
"The market relies on the insurance provided by these companies to price the bonds and to insure that investors get paid in the event of a default," Galvin said in a statement, adding, "If the credit quality of these companies comes into question, the impact on cities and towns is enormous.".
....
New York Regulator Pushes for Banks to Rescue Bond Insurers
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVPlJ2WgCKyw&refer=home
;D ;D ;D
Fitch Downgrades SCA to "A"
Associated Press 01.24.08, 10:30 AM ET
NEW YORK - Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings said Thursday it downgraded bond insurer Security Capital Assurance Ltd.'s crucial financial strength rating to "A" from "AAA."
Bond insurers essentially need a "AAA" rating to generate new business. Fitch had said the bond insurer needed to raise $2 billion to cover potential future claims and maintain its rating.
The downgrade comes a day after SCA said it would scrap a capital raising plan that might have staved off a downgrade. SCA said current market conditions would make it difficult to raise fresh capital.
Shares of SCA fell 54 cents, or 14.3 percent, to $3.25 in morning trading.
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/01/24/ap4570046.html
Ambac, MBIA White Knight Might Be Named Eric Dinallo: Joe Mysak
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aUqPEwr5c8h4&refer=home
Bond insurer woes may mean end of loophole: report
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2964512020080130
US STOCKS-Wall St off high on CNBC bond insurer report
http://www.reuters.com/article/usMktRpt/idUSN04BIGMOVE20080130
Bond Insurers May Be Downgraded As Soon As Today
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22918845
??? :o ??? :o
MBIA Posts $2.3 Billion Loss Because of Writedown
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22928311
Buffett poised to cash in on bond insurer woes
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN3021550320080131
...será que é desta que os bilionários avançam?!!! ???
Boas,
Parece ser evidente que o Warren já avançou, mas por outra forma. Não através da compra de participações nestes downgraded bond insurers, mas através da criação de uma empresa própria.
A Berkshire vai ganhar quota de mercado, nomeadamente do mercado premium à velocidade da luz.
Obrigado pela vossa atenção.
Paff.
Poixxxx....certas pessoas não são nada parvas! ;)
E com a fama que o homem tem para os negócios...
Mas não creio que deixem cair também a Ambac e a MBIA...teria um custo muito elevado...já existe muita movimentação no mercado...estão é ver se compram o mais barato possível...
cump.
Como eu dizia.... ;)
Pressure Grows to Delay Bond Insurer Downgrade
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22932650
US STOCKS-Market rebounds after bond insurer comments
http://www.reuters.com/article/usMktRpt/idUSN3132794920080131
U.S. Stocks Rise, Erasing Decline, Led by Banks, Chain Stores
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRZfExXcXK44&refer=home
Bruised bond giant puts on brave face
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/31/news/companies/boyd_mbia.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008013115
Rating Agencies Hold Off Downgrading MBIA, Ambac
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22932650
State Regulators Working with Berkshire Hathaway on Nationwide Bond Insurance License Application
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22886319
MBIA, Ambac Understate Losses: Short Seller
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22916460
Wilbur Ross in talks to buy Ambac :)
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSL2535276320080125
Pronto....estava-se mesmo a ver!...encerra os states e bommm! E será que a Europa é que paga amanhã?....
S&P Cuts FGIC's AAA Rating, Puts MBIA on Watch, Affirms Ambac By Christine Richard
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., the world's fourth-largest bond insurer, lost its AAA credit rating at Standard & Poor's, which said it may cut the top ranking on MBIA Inc.'s insurance unit as well.
Security Capital Assurance's bond insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries were also placed under review for a downgrade by S&P, according to a statement today by the New York-based ratings company. Ambac Financial Group Inc.'s insurer unit had its AAA credit rating affirmed by S&P.
``This review is part of Standard & Poor's ongoing assessment of the potential subprime-related losses that these bond insurers might incur and how they are managing their capital positions to handle the losses,'' S&P said in the statement.
Financial Guaranty, a unit of New York-based FGIC Corp., was cut two levels to AA, S&P said. The company had been AAA since at least 1984.
MBIA, which announced earnings earlier today, told investors during a four-hour conference call that its capital raising plan is on track and it expected to maintain its AAA insurance rating.
``Although MBIA has succeeded in accessing $1.5 billion of additional capital, the magnitude of projected losses underscores our view that time is of the essence in the completion of capital-raising efforts,'' S&P said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Romaine Bostick in Washington at
[email protected] Last Updated: January 31, 2008 16:36 EST
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDm9RPTxoUn0&refer=home
Estava difícil....mas finalmente alguém avança!.... :D
Buffett Offers to Assume Muni Liabilities of Insurers (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJG80urJzEgM&refer=home
Warren Buffett propõe ressegurar dívidas municipais
O investidor norte-americano Warren Buffet ofereceu-se para ressegurar 800 mil milhões de dólares (550,5 mil milhões de euros) de dívida municipal das seguradoras de emissões obrigacionistas MBIA, Ambac Financial Group e FGIC.
Uma empresa recusou a oferta e as outras duas ainda não responderam, disse Buffett à CNBC.
O presidente da Berkshire Hathaway declarou que a sua proposta não inclui os activos relacionados com os empréstimos "subprime", que provocaram mais de cinco mil milhões de dólares (3,4 mil milhões de euros) de perdas no último trimestre de 2007.
As seguradoras obrigacionistas emprestam o seu "rating" AAA ao correspondente a 1,2 biliões de dólares de dívida municipal, mas o mercado tem mostrado receio de que esse valor se deprecie no caso de haver revisão em baixa das notações financeiras dessas empresas.
Se a dívida for ressegurada com o "rating" AAA que a Berkshire detém, os municípios também conseguirão manter as suas notações iniciais, adiantou o investidor, citado pela Bloomberg.
As cotações da MBIA e a Ambac, as duas maiores seguradoras obrigacionistas, estão a ganhar bastante terreno no mercado de futuros, sustentadas pela proposta de Buffett.
Publicado 12 Fevereiro 2008 14:35
Existe para todos os gostos... ::)
Saving the bond insurers: 5 fixes for the crisis
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/news/0802/gallery.bond_insurers/index.html
Vamos ver o que vai dar...dizem que o anúncio poderá sair Segunda ou Terça...
Cump.
Boas,
Tiago, acabo de ouvir na Bloomberg que as conversações não foram sobre um bail-out.
Assim, segunda feira parece que vai ser engraçado, sinto uma linha vertical descendente no horizonte para a MBIA e a AMBAC. :o
Paff.
Não sei não....quem é que ouviste? (ou em que programa?)
Se assim fosse, os futuros já estavam em baixa... ;)
A malta não gosta de ser enganada!
Cump.
Boa noite a todos :)
Mas os futuros não estão "fechados"?
Por acaso há pouco estive a ver o vídeo da CNBC e confeso que a sensação que fiquei na parte final é que era mesmo só um boato.
Fiquei com a sensação que o repórter dizia algo do género: "Mas atenção que isto pode não dar em nada..."
Ou seja, largam a bomba e fogem...
Vou ver se vou continuar pela net a tentar perceber um pouco mais o que é que se passou ou se está a passar.
Havia de ser bonito se nada sair cá para fora na segunda ou na terça...
Só para deixar as notícias...para acompanhar o seu desenvolvimento:
Banks Closing in on Deal for Ambac Bailout
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23291851
MBIA Says Muni, Corporate Units Should Split
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23293244
Buffett's Berkshire Backs Over 100 Muni Bonds In Last Two Days
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23295017
(...Berkshire Hathaway does own 48 million shares, now worth about $1.8 billion, in Moody's. (See our new Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio Tracker.) That's about 19 percent of its outstanding stock, making Berkshire the biggest Moody's shareholder.
This week, the New York Post said that "allegations of conflicts came from insurance industry sources" because Moody's "began pulling the rug out from under (Buffett's) rival insurers to force them into 'egregious' deals with Buffett." That is, the argument goes, by threatening their AAA credit ratings, Moody's is trying to force Ambac and MBIA to accept Buffett's reinsurance offer. The Post did not identify the source of what it called the "cries of foul.") Ah poixxx... ::)
BN e bom fds.
U.S. Stocks Gain, Led by Energy, Drug Shares; Ambac, MBIA Rise
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSkmsIkjDqOU&refer=home
MBIA Removed From Review at S&P, Ambac May Be Cut (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPjmF0WcLZWc&refer=home
Update: No downgrade for MBIA
http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/02/25/ambac-almost-out-of-the-woods/
U.S. stocks jump higher in relief over S&P move
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Market+Snapshot
Stocks Rise As Ambac Ratings Reaffirmed
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/02/25/ap4693436.html
:)
Ambac Deal Set But Needs Ratings Agency Approval
http://www.cnbc.com/id/23337607/site/14081545?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo
OOooppppssss!!!....contem histórias agora! ::) ::) :-X Credibilidade acima de tudo! ??? ::)
Moody's atribui "top ratings" por engano a títulos de dívida
A Moody's atribuiu, incorrectamente, "ratings" AAA a um tipo de produto de dívida complexo, no valor de milhares de milhões de dólares, devido a uma falha nos seus modelos informáticos, descobriu o "Financial Times" numa investigação.
Os documentos internos da agência de notação internacional analisados pelo "FT" mostram que alguns colaboradores séniores da Moody's sabiam, desde inícios de 2007, que havia produtos que tinham sido classificados no ano anterior com "ratings" de triplo A (primeira classe) e que, depois de um erro de codificação informática ter sido corrigido, esses "ratings" deveriam ter descido quatro níveis.
Esta notícia de um erro de codificação surge numa altura em que as agências de notação estão a ser pressionadas pelas autoridades reguladoras e governos, que vêem as falhas no "rating" de complexos produtos de dívida estruturada como parte integral da actual crise financeira. Se bem que possam ocorrer "bugs" deste tipo na codificação, o "FT" salienta que nunca se soube de nenhum tão significativo como este.
A Moody's referiu que está a "rever criteriosamente" o "rating" de títulos de dívida de proporção constante (CPDO), que são instrumentos de derivados concebidos no auge da bolha do crédito e que prometiam aos investidores retornos bastante elevados, com pouco risco. Estes produtos eram destinados aos investidores institucionais.
Ao descobrir o erro, em inícios de 2007, a Moody's corrigiu o "bug" na codificação e instituiu alterações a nível de metologia. Um documento a que o "FT" teve acesso refere que "o impacto do nosso problema com o código, depois das melhorias no modelo, foi reduzido". Os produtos continuaram a usufruir de "rating" AAA até Janeiro deste ano, altura em que foram alvo de "downgrade", já que o resto do mercado estava a fazer o mesmo.
Publicado 21 Maio 2008 14:10
Moody's error gave top ratings to debt products
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0c82561a-2697-11dd-9c95-000077b07658.html
Moody's Begins Probe on Report Bug Caused Aaa Grades (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA57lFH5Exj4&refer=home
Erros da Moody's levam índices de Wall Street para terreno negativo
A praça nova-iorquina encontra-se em queda, com os títulos das empresas do sector Financeiro a liderar as quedas, devido aos receios dos investidores de que erros informáticos ocorridos nos sistemas da agência de notação Moody's possam levar a revisões em baixa das notações de várias emissões obrigacionisats, reduzindo os resultados dos bancos.
Pedro Duarte
Às 18h10, o índice Dow Jones descia 0,60% para os 12 747,99 pontos, enquanto o Nasdaq Composite da bolsa electrónica recuava 0,1% para os 2489,49 pontos.
A maior descida pertence aos títulos da Moody's, que registam a maior queda diária desde 1999, depois desta empresa ter revelado se não atribuiu por erro notações de 'AAA' a emissões de dívida que mais tarde se desvalorizaram, devido a um erro no seu sistema de cálculo.
"Há já algum tempo que temos assistido a um cepticismo relativamente às notações de crédito (...). Isto pode dar aos cépticos alguma confirmação de que as suas preocupações têm fundamento", afirmou à agência Bloomberg um gestor de portfólios da Pioneer Investment Management.
Outro título que se destaca pela negativa é o do banco de investimento Lehman Brothers, que desce depois da sua estimativa de lucro no segundo trimestre ter sido revista em baixa de 93% pelos analistas do Merrill Lynch.
Os títulos das empresas que dependem do consumo também estão em terreno negativo, em particular as acções da Home Depot, depois dos preços do petróleo terem superado a barreira dos 132 dólares no NYMEX de Nova Iorque.
EUA/Meio da Sessão 2008-05-21 18:18
U.S. Stocks Extend Drop on Fed Minutes; Financials Lead Retreat
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asdWzpozwRF0&refer=home
Moody's Falls Most in 9 Years on Ratings Error Probe (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1b.s62ur5no&refer=home
Computer bug bites Moody's
http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/05/21/computer-bug-bites-moodys/