DAX
Da posição anterior bullish passou a neutro(+)
Formação de uma candle com máximos abaixo dos 6033 fá-lo passar a neutro
Stop alerta a 5866 que accionará o neutro(-) , vai manter-se na próxima sessão no mesmo valor
Neste momento só abaixo dos 5860 passa a bearish,
Gráfico mensal neste momento com uma spinning top
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IBEX
Gráfico mensal tb nos mostra um spinning top
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NDX
Desde Janeiro que não consegue fazer novos máximos, tendo feito em Março um dos maiores volumes dos ultimos 36 meses.
Penso que devemos começar a desconfiar de um possivel topo de médio prazo, que será confirmado com a quebra dos 1633 , seguido de perfuração convincente dos 1600.
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SPX
Neste momento é o unico índice que através da "teoria de candlesticks" não nos mostra um padrão de possivel topo, mas esta ultima candle embora fazendo novos máximos(com volume inferior à anterior) não o conseguiu em fecho
The Elliott Wave Pattern in the Dow Industrials and S&P 500
April 30th, 2006Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
We are seeing the final thrust up in the Dow Industrials to complete the multi-month Rising Bearish Wedge, a.k.a. Ending Diagonal Triangle. That final thrust higher is labeled below as
wave e up.
The parallel trend-channel targets about 11,500 for this top, but that is merely a reasonable target. Being so close to the all-time 11,750 mark, it could decide to top there (giving us a huge six year double top) or it could truncate around the 11,350 to 11,450 area where the DJIA topped four other times over the past eight years and represents formidable resistance.
Any way we cut it, we are approaching a very significant historical top here. The first two of five waves for {c}, wave {i} up and {ii} down have completed, as have the first two sub-waves of {iii} up. There is the possibility of a short-covering rally for 3 of {iii} of {c} up, the timing of which is interesting, coming during the normal beginning-of-month bullish bias early next week.
While the e wave up of the final rally Minuette wave c up to a top is an overlapping triangle within a parallel trend-channel in the Dow Industrials, clearly in the S&P 500 we see a more traditional Rising Bearish Wedge. In both cases, the Elliott Wave count is completing perfectly on cue, the patterns are finishing up nicely, and this should be the final rally to a top. Once it tops, there should be a huge decline starting that we will all be able to identify when it arrives. We will rely upon our proprietary Stochastic and Purchasing Power Indicators to identify this coming turn. Our preference is to let our trading be guided by those indicators, rather than the Elliott Wave labeling, which is subject to influence from liquidity intervention short-covering rallies that can morph the labeling.
Aqui fica o mensal
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