O urânio continua em grande!
Acabei de ver o fixing da cotação semanal para o spot e fiquei espantado com a forte subida que registou em relação à semana anterior. Valorizou $3,50 para os $52, uma variação superior a 7%!!!
Costumo acompanhar a evolução da cotação do urânio e não me lembro de, nos tempos mais recentes, ter assistido a tamanha valorização numa única semana.
Continua imparável.
Paciente,
Nunca aconteceu um aumento em valor absoluto desta dimensão. Além disso, na minha opinião, este tipo de cotação do urânio U3O8 (através da UxC) pode não reflectir logo o real potencial de subida.
Mas $3,50 de subida numa semana é espantoso!
Abraço
Comentador
Para quem ainda não notou, o uránio ultrapassou a semana passada os 70 dólares.
A subida continua sem quebras. Há duas semanas havia subido $2,50 ena semana passada foram mais $6,50 de valorização, passando este metal a cotar nos $72.
Esta forte subida do urânio (+10%) foi concerteza a razão pela qual as acções ligadas a este metal registaram forte valorização na passada segunda-feira.
Será que vamos ver a cotação do urânio com três dígitos?
Parece-me claramente uma commoditie em ascençao e corrijam-me se estiver errado mas :
A procura por este material tem superado a oferta ao longo destes ultimos anos.
A substituiçao do petroleo por uranio na produçao de energia electrica em centrais nucleares tem aumentado para alèm de estarem previstas cerca de 1 dezena de novas centrais .
A abundancia deste minerio certamente vai contribuir para uma maior utilizaçao do mesmo.
E outras que os nossos amigos forenses se lembrem de aqui postar .
E Paciente gostava de saber a tua opiniao pessoal sobre as perspectivas para 2007 sobre o Uranio , a sua abundancia nao levara a que os preços tendam a baixar no medio prazo ? , o facto das populaçoes temerem desastres como os ja ocorridos nao inibirá a sua total implementaçao ? A UREX (urxe) parece -te uma empresa viavel , que sabes sobre ela ?
Desculpa tanta pergunta , mas como sei que és um entendido no assunto :)
Caro Semitela,
É de facto muita pergunta!
Vamos por partes. Eu não sou nenhum especialista em urânio. Apenas tenho seguido este metal mais de perto pelo facto de estar em claro Bull Market. Tenho algumas posições em empresas do sector (que já aqui divulguei) mas não acompanho activamente todos os factores que influenciam o preço deste metal. A minha especialidade (se é que se pode dizer assim) é mesmo os metais preciosos OURO e PRATA.
Não tenho qualquer informação da "abundância " deste metal. Agradecia que o amigo Semitela colocasse aqui no Fórum alguns dados sobre este aspecto, até porque me parece algo estranho essa abundância.
O que eu penso é que em 2007 o urânio vai continuar a subir de preço. Como é óbvio este nível de preços actual já leva muitas empresas para a exploração deste metal com a possibilidade real de virem a ser construídas novas minas de urânio no futuro.
Mas esse futuro poderá ser ainda algo distante uma vez que a construção e entrada em funcionamento de uma mina deverá demorar em média 10 anos. O único reforço (substancial) do lado da oferta, que se esperava para o curto prazo, era a mina de Cigar Lake (pertencente à Cameco) que foi vítima de uma inundação grave que fez disparar a cotação do urânio.
Este acontecimento, foi um duro golpe para a oferta de urânio, num mercado ávido por este metal. Não se esperam grandes aumentos dos lado da oferta nos próximos dois anos.
As populações e grupos ambientalistas são de facto um problema sério mas que afecta sobretudo a procura deste metal. O facto de haver uma oposição às centrais nucleares (sobretudo no Ocidente) leva a que a procura esteja restringida. Não obstante, o preço tem subido o que se deve básicamente ao facto de a oferta não ser suficiente para a procura (que tem sobretudo aumentado em países a oriente, como a China), com consequências evidentes no preço.
Quanto à URXE, não me posso pronunciar pois não faz parte da minha lista de empresas deste sector. As minhas escolhas neste sector são, actualmente, a FRG e a URZ.
Abraço
Citação de: Paciente em Dezembro 28, 2006, 21:59
Caro Semitela
Não tenho qualquer informação da "abundância " deste metal. Agradecia que o amigo Semitela colocasse aqui no Fórum alguns dados sobre este aspecto, até porque me parece algo estranho essa abundância.
Desculpa ,foi eu que ao ler o artigo postado em baixo , ao ler que era mais abundante que o ouro e a prata presumi erradamente que era abundante . :-[
Obrigado pela resposta rapida e concisa que nos deste .
Abaixo fica um link da Homepage da Urex Energy em que se explicam razoes da procura e processos de exploraçao deste minerio .
http://www.urexenergy.com/s/AboutUranium.asp
Ah bom, isso já é outra coisa! Ser mais abundante que o OURO e a PRATA é "normal". Não é por acaso que estes dois metais são considerados preciosos.
Mas já agora quero deixar aqui mais uma empresa que passou a figurar, a partir de hoje, da minha "Top List" de empresas do sector do urânio. Trata-se da Mega Uranium (Ticker: MGA.TO) e só está disponível no mercado canadiano.
Fez um violento breakout, com volume estrondoso e espectacular subida.
Boas Paciente ,
Sabes onde posso acompanhar a cotaçao do Uranio ?
É que entrei na URXE à 0,49$ e gostava de acompanhar esta commoditie. O seu Price target é de 3,00$ :P
Abraços
Viva Semitela,
Podes acompanhar a cotação do urânio no site www.uxc.com, mas só é actualizada uma vez por semana.
Não conheço nenhum site que tenha cotações diárias de urânio (se é que existem).
Abraço
Citação de: Semitela em Janeiro 08, 2007, 16:51
É que entrei na URXE à 0,49$ . O seu Price target é de 3,00$ :P
Abraços
Encontrei o tal artigo onde tinha visto a recomendaçao à URXE.OB
http://www.wallstreettradingalerts.com/URXE120506.html
Profiting from the Next Phase of the Uranium Bull Market
Doug Casey, Casey Energy Speculator
January 13th, 2007
When the fundamentals of uranium first caught my eye back in 1998, it was a contrarian's dream. At the time it was, to my thinking at least, the proverbial manna, an ultra-clean, ultra-safe, ultra-efficient and virtually unlimited source of mass energy, yet due to environmental hysteria was viscerally and universally despised. Its price had fallen to only about $9.00 on its way even lower, a price that made it uneconomic to produce, let alone explore for. As a result, there was a huge and growing short-fall in new mine production to meet demand. That short-fall was largely covered by reprocessing nuclear weapons, mostly from the former Soviet Union, but it was clear to me that that supply was finite, whereas demand was not.
A lot has happened since my first recommendation of uranium, or, more specifically, uranium stocks, back in 1998. Including, I am happy to say, my subscribers and I have made a lot of money (click here to learn how to become a subscriber). That is the reward for being early into a trend. But the trend has now been in motion for some time, and so it is worth revisiting. Is the big up-move in uranium prices over? Can you still find good value in uranium stocks? Marin Katusa, a uranium analyst here at Casey Research recently took on the task of answering those questions, the results of which follow. If you are invested in uranium stocks at the moment, or are thinking about it, you owe it to yourself to read on.
Doug Casey
With the spot price of uranium appreciating by 927% over the last 6 years, there's little question the easy money in the sector has been made. If, however, you pick your investments closely, there is a lot of upside remaining in the uranium bull market.
The uranium bull has come about due to the simple fundamentals of supply and demand, exacerbated by a global resurgence of interest in nuclear power as a mass energy solution. A resurgence helped by widespread concerns over global warming: unlike carbon-based fuels, nuclear emits no greenhouse gas.
In fast growing economies such as India and China, debate over the role of nuclear energy in providing mass power is effectively over: there are no other realistic alternatives to provide desperately needed baseload power. That explains why, in Asia alone, 57 new nuclear power plants are projected by 2015, a feverish pace. For these countries, nuclear is not just an option, but an imperative.
A corresponding growth in demand for uranium fuel is inevitable, but that demand only makes a bad situation worse, with new mine supplies already running about 40% behind demand. That deficit largely explains why uranium has skyrocketed in recent years, moving from just over $7 in January of 2001, to over $72 today.
Until relatively recently, there has been only one way to profit from this opportunity; by investing in companies involved in uranium production, processing or exploration. If you were in on the trend early, it was like the proverbial shooting fish in a barrel. Big fish.
Before the recent mania, back in October of 1998, Doug Casey was a lone voice in the woods when he issued a 16-page special report for subscribers detailing the reasons uranium was a screaming buy. At that time, you could count the number of junior uranium explorers on two hands. Many of his readers literally made fortunes from the small universe of stocks he brought to their attention (to provide just one example, his lead recommendation, Paladin, subsequently appreciated by over 3,000%, turning $10,000 into $300,000).
But that was then, and this is now. Today, interest in uranium has exploded and, as you would imagine, the market has become flooded with freshly-minted "uranium explorers"... close to 400 companies at last count. Make no mistake, the vast majority are nothing more than overpriced, over-hyped shells with little more in the way of assets than mildly radioactive moose pasture and aggressive corporate promoters who know how to spin a good story.
Put another way, the initial, "easy money" phase of this play is over. If you're looking to profit from rising uranium prices going forward – and we are convinced they will continue to rise – you'll have to pay a lot more attention to your securities selection. We'll discuss some of the key criteria to consider on that front momentarily, but first a quick look at the uranium spot price.
Where is the Spot Price Going?
To understand where the spot price is headed you first have to understand the purchasers and their roles. The primary purchasers of uranium are nuclear power utilities. Historically, they have contracted for fuel for a set period of time, stockpiling when they grew convinced that prices would be rising.
There is, however, a relatively new secondary market that has developed, devoted to buying and holding the metal itself. Funds such as the Uranium Participation Corporation (www.uraniumparticipation.com) effectively stockpile uranium, with the full intent of selling it later to the nuclear industry at substantially higher prices. These organizations have served to provide a baseline of support for the spot price of uranium between buying cycles. It's an important role, because higher prices provide the incentive for companies to navigate the many geological, engineering and, most importantly, political challenges required to bring a new deposit to market, a process conservatively estimated to take between 10 and 20 years.
One important point to understand about uranium is that, unlike oil and gas, higher spot prices trigger no consumer protests, or Washington hearing complete with grandstanding politicos trying to "protect" their constituents from the greedy price-gougers, a nearly monthly affair for oil and gas executives. The reason is that the amount of uranium used in creating nuclear power makes it a relatively minor component in the overall cost. A double in oil's spot price would result in energy cost increases of 40% or more for oil-based power generation plants and send the cost of gasoline at the pump soaring. A double in the spot price of uranium, however, would result in a mere 5% increase in the cost of electricity from a nuclear power plant. That's why you haven't heard anyone complain about the 927% price increase in uranium since 2001. Indeed, uranium could trade at $200 per pound and the utilities would hardly blink.
In sum, uranium is still cheap by any measure, including: what the market is willing (and able) to pay, prior highs and supply/demand ratios. Speaking of prior highs, in inflation adjusted terms, the price of uranium has been as much as 70% higher than it is today, a price level we see being taken out in this cycle.
Profiting from the Second Phase of the Uranium Bull Market
If you're looking strictly to ride the rising tide, stick with a fund such as the Uranium Participation Corporation, as that will appreciate pretty much 1:1 with the spot price, less holding and management fees, of course.
If, however, you are looking at getting (much) more bang for your uranium buck, then you'll want to look to get positioned in a portfolio of carefully selected junior uranium stocks.
As the Casey Uranium Index (CUI) below shows, juniors can widely outperform the spot price of uranium alone.
(The Casey Uranium Index is made up of the stocks meeting the criteria required for recommendation in the Casey Energy Speculator newsletter from Casey Research)
The secret to finding winning uranium stocks? Start by aligning yourself with high-quality management teams with proven uranium expertise. A surprising number of companies now claiming uranium expertise have little to no on-staff experience with this specialized metal. While it is hard to find one that has not already had extreme appreciation, look for "early mover" companies -- those which were actively acquiring projects before uranium became the flavor-of-the-day. They are most likely to be sitting on the most prospective concessions, in the best geological and political settings.
Finally, look for companies that are actually doing the hard work necessary to prove-up their resources, because verified pounds in the ground will be, for most of these companies, the trigger that gets them taken over – at much higher prices -- by a larger company with the specific skill sets to move the project into production.
And make no mistake, finding an economic uranium deposit, then bringing it to market is a Herculean task – far harder and more complex than, say, a gold or silver deposit, and even those are challenging in the extreme. Consequently, it is hard to overly stress the importance of investing with a proven management team; of the nearly 400 uranium companies fighting over your investment dollars, only a handful actually are worthy. Caution is the keyword.
Conclusion
During this second phase of the cycle, the uranium price is headed to $100, then $200. As the market matures and investors become more informed about uranium, the pretenders will be exposed and the contenders, those working hard to prove-up economic deposits, will be rewarded. Getting positioned today will still get you in ahead of the crowd, but don't be in a rush, and don't make the mistake of jumping into a pretender that has already had a big run up on nothing more than hype.
Citação de: Semitela em Janeiro 08, 2007, 23:43
Citação de: Semitela em Janeiro 08, 2007, 16:51
É que entrei na URXE à 0,49$ . O seu Price target é de 3,00$ :P
Abraços
Encontrei o tal artigo onde tinha visto a recomendaçao à URXE.OB
http://www.wallstreettradingalerts.com/URXE120506.html
Aqui fica mais uma actualizaçao :
Boa valorizaçao , fecho à 0,57$
Boas Semitela,
Pode ser útil para adicionares mais algumas empresas à tua shortlist.
www.321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye011707.html
Abraço
A Ma (200) parece ter chamado de volta o preço ao seu nivel .
O volume normal , mas nota-se o macd inverteu a duas sessoes atras e cresce tal como o rsi.
Acredito que o Uranio se continuará a valorizar por isso a minha aposta numa penny em que nao necessito de investir muito capital . Se subir será um bom negocio , se descer nao perco muito ;D
Aquele valores de 0,4x parecem ter sido um fundo mas a ver vamos ::)
http://www.urexenergy.com/s/Home.asp
Deixo um grafico com o fecho de ontem
Abraços e bons negocios.
Alexandre Semitela.
Boas,
Fecho semanal à 0,57$ á que corresponde uma valorizaçao de + 22,58% nesta semana.
Abaixo deixo o grafico semanal , reparem no slow stochastics : quando cruzar os 20 em alta dará sinal de compra o que com o macd a inverter para positivo e o rsi a passar outra vez acima dos 50 virá confirmar a reacçao desta semana.
Bom fim de semana
Aqui fica uma explicaçao facil de como a energia nuclear funciona e o que é o URANIO.
http://www.uic.com.au/uran.htm
Relembro que China e India têm em construçao dezenas de centrais nucleares e outras tantas em projectos como por esse mundo fora .
Imaginem ao ritmo que estes paises crescem a energia que será necessaria produzir para alimentar as necessidades de energia para qualquer coisa como 2 300 000 000 de pessoas.
Energia barata e limpa , o uranio é a commoditie que mais vai ver o seu preço subir ( mesmo que o preço suba 500% continuará a ser mais barata que o petroleo :o)
Por isso tudo o que esteja ligado à este sector tenderá em circunstâncias normais à explodir nos proximos anos. ;D
Boas,
Dia mau este, para as empresas do sector do Uranio.
Com a URXE a nao ser excepçao >:(
Abaixo deixo o grafico , o volume tem vindo a diminuir; Será algum sinal ?
Abraços
Boas,
Ligeira recuperaçao das empresas do sector e da URXE também.
Abraços
Abraços
Boas,
Nada a assinalar, pouco volume , pouca variaçao -- lateralizaçao pura.
Vamos acompanhando
Boas,
Fecho Semanal à 0,50$ , o que corresponde à uma desvalorizaçao de 12,28% na semana.
Fecho do Gap que ficou da semana passada está agora executado :)
Abraços e fica o grafico semanal.
Boas,
A URXE , hoje fez uma gracinha e trepou 20% ;D
Vamos acompanhando .
Abraços e o respectivo grafico da sessao de hoje.
Alexandre Semitela.
Boas ,
Ligeira correcçao à espectacular subida de ontem
Abraços
Boas,
Uranium warms up again
Globe and Mail Update
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Uranium prices have resumed their upward climb after an apparent five- week lull.
The spot price for the fissile metal, the key component of atomic fuel, rose to $75 (U.S.) a pound in the week ended Monday, up $3, Ux Consulting Co. LLC of Roswell, Ga., said in a weekly report.
Uranium has been one of the hottest performers among commodities in the past several years. Its spot price has more than tripled since 2004, and a number of analysts expect it to approach the $100-a-pound mark this year.
The metal does not trade on any public market, and Ux Consulting tracks prices by keeping tabs on private deals.
Buyers have been reluctant to make firm-price offers in recent weeks, but the firm said there has been enough activity "to discern firm offer prices."
A key recent impetus for the upward climb was the flooding late last October of a massive planned Cameco Inc. mine at Cigar Lake, Sask., that, assuming it can be saved and brought on stream down the road ,could churn out as much as 17 per cent of annual world production.
As well, hedge funds and other financial players have become substantial buyers of the radioactive metal.
© The Globe and Mail
Boas,
Mais um fecho com o respectivo grafico.
Boas,
Nada a acrescentar.
Abraços,
ficam uns rabiscos e o grafico semanal.
Alexandre Semitela
Boas,
Nada acrescentar, vamos acompanhando.
Boas,
Aqui no passa nada ;D
Enquanto nao houver noticias ou algum tubarao que entre ou saia , nada se passa.
Abraços
Boas,
O uranio voltou a subir , e desta vez foram apenas 10$ - de 75 para 85 ;D
Os 100 , estao aí a porta , e nada parece impedir que isso aconteça.
As empresas do sector deverao benefiniciar e de que forma destes sucessivos aumentos do preço desta commoditie.
Abraços
Não tenho dúvidas de que os $100 vão mesmo ser atingidos. A partir do momento em que se deu o acidente na mina de Cigar Lake, a probabilidade dos $100 serem atingidos subiu vertiginosamente.
Deixo aqui dois gráficos das minhas apostas neste sector: a Fronteer Development (Ticker: FRG) e a Uranerz (Ticker: URZ).
A FRG atingiu o target ($13,41) e começou a corrigir. Esta correcção também tem a ver com o facto da FRG ter anunciado um financiamento através da emissão de novas acções, colocação essa feita a C$14,50 (cerca de $12,50).
Quanto à URZ, realizou um poderoso breakout seguido de uma quebra do anterior máximo histórico. Target: $7,50.
Boas ,
Mais um record , desta vez aumentou para os 90$ , a barreira psicologica aproxima-se e a cotaçao é atraida por ela.
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070312/29263_id.html?.v=1
Depois desta correcçao nos mercados financeiros haverá concerteza grandes negocios a fazer neste sector tao promissor à longo prazo.
Abraços .
Pois é, o urânio não descansa na sua toada ascendente. Está cada vez mais perto de atingir a barreira mágica dos $100.
Agora foram mais $4 de valorização, que colocaram este metal nos $95.
Impressionante mesmo é o facto do gráfico não apresentar nenhuma correcção. Desde Jun2002 que não há nenhum mês em que a cotação tenha sido inferior ao mês anterior!
Em termos reais (descontando inflacção), para igualar o anterior máximo o urânio tem que chegar aos cerca de $120 atingidos em 1975-1976.
Bom dia.
Uranio continua a subir. :)
Os 100$ Uranium Spot serão atingidos para a semana.
Os atrasos e os problemas na mina Cigar Lake de Cameco diminuem a oferta.
A procura continua a subir:
(http://images.angelnexus.com/ms/20070326-bluechart.png)
Os Investimentos em empresas de uranio ma minha opiniao oferecem boas opurtunidades Os Riscos tambem são elevados. O importante é filtrar as companhias já em produção ou quase em produção, dos Explorer que nunca irão tirar uma só grama de urânio do solo.
Os meus favoritos: Ambos activos em Namíbia: Paladin Resources (Ja em Produção) e Forsys Metals ( PFS esperado para a semana, Começo de Produção para 2008).
Se tiveren interessados em mais informaçoes sobre estas companhias poço me dar ao trabalho em fazer um resumo.
(http://www.u3o8.biz/i/front/chart.gif)
RBC says uranium bull market thriving and forecasts average $100/lb price in 2007
In a recent study, RBC Capital Markets advised that mining remains in the middle of a uranium bull market with an average $100/lb price this year.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 04 Apr 2007
RENO, NV -
An RBC Capital Markets research report released last month asserts that uranium remains in the middle of a bull market, with an average price of $100/lb forecast for this year.
In their report, "Investing in Uranium Companies," RBC provides a good introduction to the mining sector, which is applicable to a broader range of hardrock minerals and metals.
RBC's analysis asserts that a supply-gap will exist in uranium after 2013.
The analysts suggest the two best strategies that a uranium producer or developer can use to drive shareholder returns are "becoming a producer and positioning the company for acquisition. Other strategies include land/area plans or simply the acquisition of as many 'pounds in the ground' as possible regardless of asset quality-but we believe these are inferior strategies," RBC Dominion Securities Analyst Adam Schatzker wrote.
RBC uses a formula of forward earnings per share (EPS) or CFPS multiples to reflect the valuation of uranium companies with existing operations. For those developing new projects, the analysts use a net asset value (NAV) approach. "For exploration companies where it is too early to calculate an NAV, we look to the enterprise value per pound of U308 (EV/lb) in resources."
The report advises that the most important criteria that needs to be evaluated when examining a uranium project include grade, deposit types, the kind of mining and extraction methods to be used, permitting issues, political risk, production timeline, and reserves, resource and historical resources.
"Due to the lower level of confidence, the application of mining dilution and cutoff grades, and the fact that the final reserve/resource may be smaller, we believe inferred resources should command lower EV/lb than measured and indicated resources and, of course, reserves," according to Schatzker.
He advised that is it worthwhile for investors to focus on uranium ISL (in-situ leach) deposits "as we expected that the contribution from ISL uranium deposits will increase dramatically over the next 10 years. ...ISL mines have the benefit of relatively low capital costs and lower environmental footprints, and they can often be brought into production in a much shorter timeframe than conventional mines."
RBC's top uranium company picks include Canada's Cameco (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ) which is the world's largest publicly traded uranium producer. Currently Cameco is developing two new mines in Canada and Central Asia. Analyst H. Fraser Phillips forecast a 12-month target of Canadian $60/share.
Australia's Energy Resources (ASX: ERA), the world's third largest uranium producer, was selected by analyst Chris Lancaster as "SECTOR PERFORM, ABOVE AVERAGE RISK." Lancaster also selected Paladin Resources (ASX, TSX: PDN) because of its potential to write contracts of five or more years at prices around the current uranium price of US$85/lb. "Over the next four years to 2010, we estimated that PDN will ramp up production quickly to approximately 5.9 million pounds per annum of U308," he said. Lancaster rated Paladin "OUTPERFORM, ABOVE AVERAGE RISK" with a 12-month target of A$12/sh.
London analyst George Lequime picked First Uranium (TSX: FIU), citing its Ezulwini and Buffelsfontein gold and uranium projects in South Africa. He rated the company "OUTPERFORM, ABOVE AVERAGE RISK," with a 12-month target of Cdn$12/sh.
Toronto-based Schatzker likes sxr Uranium One (TSX: SXR), which recently announced its planned merger with UrAsia to form Uranium One. He highlighted SXR's Dominion Uranium Project in South Africa, forecasting that its atmospheric leach circuit will ramp up to 3.5 million pounds by 2008 and eventually double production by 2015. He rated the company 'SECTOR PERFORM, ABOVE AVERAGE RISK," with a 12-month target of Cdn$18/sh.
"The EPS and NAV used to calculate our target price incorporate our valuation of UrAsia and assume that the deal proceeds as announced," Schatzker explained. "We believe that SXR will enter into contracts in 2007 that will determine a significant portion of the company's value; the ability of the company to successfully complete these contracts at the prices we forecast will likely be reflected in the share price."
Among the "NOT RATED" uranium companies highlighted in RBC's report were Aurora Energy, Berkeley Resources, Denison Mines, Energy Metals, Forsys Metals, Khan Resources, Laramide Resources, Mega Uranium, OmegaCorp, Strathmore Minerals, Tournigan Gold, Ur-Energy, Ur-Asia Energy, UraMin, Uranium Power Corporation, and Western Prospector Group.
(http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=CA%3APDN&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=2&maval=38&uf=8&lf=16&lf2=16&lf3=2&type=4&size=2&state=11&sid=1960320&style=320&time=9&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=7267&mocktick=1)
Que dizem a este chart?
Espectacular! ;D Os 15 CAD são a minha meta para este ano
(http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=CA%3Afsy&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=2&maval=38&uf=8&lf=32&lf2=4&lf3=2&type=4&size=2&state=11&sid=2050940&style=320&time=6&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=9109&mocktick=1)
Para depois da páscoa será publicada a PFS (prefeasibility Study).
Até lá um correção até 8.5 será tecnicamente possivél.
No entanto espero a partir daí uma subida em flecha e os 11 CAD ainda este més.
Até o fim do ano os 20 CAD serão possiveis.
Espero que estas sugestoes interessam.
Nuno
Urânio a 113$ já esta semana. Fantástico :o :o ;D
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04072007/uranium-price-history.gif)
http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04072007/uranium-price-history.gif (http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04072007/uranium-price-history.gif)
Embora no curto prazo a realização de mais valias não seja má opção, estas duas empresas por certo seguirão na frente das valorizações do sector:
USU E CCJ (gráficos em anexo)
Cumps,
Boas Scuba,
Embora sejam ambas boas empresas para ter em carteira, não considero as mais atractivas em termos de valorização.
Penso que as melhores opções se situam em empresas de pequena-média dimensão.
Dá uma olhada na FRG e na URZ (para só falar de empresas a cotar nos EUA) e compara a sua performance nos últimos 2 anos face a esses dois gigantes do sector.
Abraço
Respeito a tua opinião mas o risco inerente a negociar empresas com liquidez média inferior a 1 milhao de títulos é muito mais elevado.É necessário mt maior ponderação de factores e maior controle de money management.
Abraço,
nota: quando se faz um almoço??? ando mortinho de estar com a malta amiga do CI.
"... o risco inerente a negociar empresas com liquidez média inferior a 1 milhao de títulos é muito mais elevado.É necessário mt maior ponderação de factores e maior controle de money management."
Concordo com isto! Apenas referenciei a FRG e URZ porque afirmaste que "a CCJ e a USU por certo seguirão na frente das valorizações do sector".
Abraço
NOTA: a FRG e a URZ já apresentam uma liquidez muito apreciável. Ontem ambas negociaram mais de 1 milhão de acções. A FRG aproxima-se rápidamente da fasquia do "1 billion dollars" de capitalização bolsista sendo que a seu volume médio (em quantidade) se situa acima das 700.000 acções negociadas por sessão.
(http://www.resourceinvestor.com/MediaLib/Images/Home/Sections/Uranium/Ustockchart.png)
Como já escrevi a dias: O uranium bull market vai continuar.
Daqui para a frente será importante selecionar as exploradoras em estado avançado ou as produtoras das exploradoras que nunca iram tirar uma só grama de urânio do solo.
A esta tabella não foram incluidas pelos analistas o forsys metals, em excellente posição.
Não esquecer que o projecto Valencia fica perto da Rossing Mine do Gigante Rio Tinto e tambem de Heinrich de Paladin.
Tive hoje resposta de e-mail do CEO Parnham. "Shortly" iram ser apresentados os detailos do spinn off dos projectos de non uranium (ongopolo gold project). :o
Tambem a qualquer Momento poderá sair a Prefeasibility study.
Nas minhas contas, Forsys ficará assim um grande candidato para um Take Over pela parte de Rössing. Este oferta, pelos valores actuais (Reserva confirmada de Urânio, número de acçoes, Cut off na produção, no mínino será de 14 a 15 $ kanadianos.
Tenham atenção a esta exploradora.
FSY em Canada
www.forsysmetals.com (http://www.forsysmetals.com)
Bons investimentos
Uranium Bull Market Too Overheated?
By Jon A. Nones
12 Apr 2007 at 01:08 PM GMT-04:00
LAS VEGAS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research, told listeners at the Uranium Stock Summit that there are three stages of a bull market: Stealth mode, worry mode and mania mode. He said the uranium bull market is entering the mania mode.
Although the bull cycle is nearing and end, Casey said a lot of money can still be made. He said that mania stage in the dotcom era lasted about 2 to 3 years, and some of the best profits came out of it.
Rick Rule of Global Resource Investments today told listeners that we are already in the midst of a uranium mania, "an insane mania." He recommended selling.
Casey introduced Rule as one who perpetually sells early. Rule agreed.
"I always buy too early, I always sell too early," he said. "My yearly return is 60%, so I'm going to continue to sell early."
Rule began his presentation saying "the thrill is gone; the easy money has been made." He preached minimizing risks as opposed to maximizing reward giving three serious risk factors in the market today:
1. At 113/lb, the price of uranium does not have to go up for miners to make it worthwhile.
2. Only 20-40 management teams survived the 20-year bear market in the industry, which leaves about 550 uranium companies searching for expertise.
3. Most of the companies don't have any uranium, perhaps only in the company name, and therefore the spot price is irrelevant.
"What's free in the uranium market today?" Rule asked. "Nothing."
Rule used an analogy of betting on horse races. He said when a person places a bet on a horse, he or she is betting on the horse to win, show or place. Too many uranium companies today are merely threatening. Only 10% will win, place or show and 50% won't finish the race at all, he said.
"We have two choices in this market, we can be contrarians or we can be victims," he added. "Every great party leaves a vicious hangover, so why not stock a little Alka-Seltzer."
He said every investor should have two exit strategies in mind:
1. What's the exit strategy of the company? Are they looking to be bought out or eventually to produce?
2. What's your exit strategy? Why do you own the stock?
"Make the money, take the money," he said.
In a discussion panel, Jim Mustard of Haywood Securities, Kevin Bambrough of Sprott Asset Management and Dave Forest of Casey Energy Confidential all concurred that taking some profits is never a bad idea.
Mustard said investors should keep an eye on the psychology of the market and spot prices for indications of overheating.
"Don't be afraid to sell," he told listeners. "I do not see dark clouds on the horizon" in the commodities bull market, he said, but investors should cut back on the "pages of investments" on occasion to concentrate on the quality plays.
Mustard added that the market still has a long way to go, but "I don't think we're going to see this kind of growth" in the next five years.
Bambrough said Sprott has already exited Cameco [NYSE:CCJ; TSX:CCO], Paladin [TSXZunge rausstreckenDN] and SXR Uranium One [TSX:SXR] because "everyone is looking at these companies." He said uranium prices will top out in the next 12-18 months.
Forest told investors to take profits on market hype minus fundamentals.
"We are late in the cycle," he said. "We've gone from homeruns of 10-baggers to doubles and triples."
He recommended closely watching other commodity markets as precious and base metal price fluctuations can affect the uranium market.
"Don't rely on the rising tide to lift all boats," he said. "Keep in mind that things turn quickly."
Although the easy money has been made, analysts all agreed that there are still investment opportunities available in the industry.
Investor's just need to be "very selective," Rule concluded.
Check back here soon for top stock picks from Rick Rule, Jim Mustard, Kevin Bambrough, Phil O'Neill of MP1 Capital and Marin Katusa of Casey Research.
Get Ready for U.S. Uranium Futures!
The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) said on Monday that it signed an agreement to introduce uranium futures on its electronic platforms next month.
NYMEX Chairman Richard Schaeffer told reporters, "We expect to create a benchmark contract for this important and underserved global market."
Penso que o aparecimento de futuros sobre o urânio irá desviar capital especulativo do sector das acções de urânio. Numa primeira fase o sector poderá ser algo afectado pelo saída de dinheiro para os futuros. Mas o potencial do sector é grande e as 16 fusões e aquisições que ocorreram nos últimos 12 meses provam isso mesmo.
Por outro lado, os futuros vão ser um catalizador ainda maior da cotação do urânio. Mas atenção, a volatilidade quase inexistente neste metal (que não pára de subir há vários anos sem qualquer queda semanal) vai sofrer grandes alterações . Preparem-se para grandes variações de preço (as quedas serão um novidade neste metal).
Inicialmente, a liquidez dos futuros deve ser reduzida, mas depois terá tendência a aumentar pois há muito boa gente que prefere especular directamente no metal.
Já agora deixo aqui mais uma informação, que julgo ser importante para quem não tem acesso ao mercado Canadiano e deseja investir em acções do sector do urânio.
A Denison Mines (Ticker: DML.TO) vai passar a cotar nos EUA, na AMEX. O símbolo que a Denison Mines adoptará nos EUA será DNN. O início das transacções na AMEX será já a partir de amanhã, dia 19ABR07.
NYMEX URANIUM FUTURES SURVEY RESULTS
By James Finch and Julie Ickes
April 27, 2007
More Interest in Uranium, More Volatility in Price
Earlier this week, Dow Jones MarketWatch reporter Myra Saefong contacted us with some very interesting questions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. These contracts will commence trading on May 7th. Previously, we had made inquiries about the viability of this futures market, and realized that a few expert opinions would be insufficient to do this story justice.
Rather than simply respond with our opinion, we decided to poll a cross-section of our readership. While not everyone was surveyed (we randomly emailed only about 1500 subscribers), we did receive an adequate response – nearly 400. We gave those subscribers less than 36 hours to respond by clicking on a hidden web page, which automatically tabulated their responses for us. Because of the service we utilized, their names and email addresses remained anonymous.
We are aware that our emails reached utilities, banks, financial institutions, hedge funds, stockbrokers, and retail investors. We emailed to readers in about 60 countries. More than 60 percent of our readership is in the United States. Other key geographical regions include Japan, Canada, Germany, Israel, France, Spain/Portugal, Scandinavia, United Kingdom, Mexico, and Australia/New Zealand.
Below are the responses to our survey questions. The polling service also provided us with a bar chart to illustrate those responses. We would like to expand our sampling by encouraging anyone reading this article to also vote their opinion on these same questions. The deadline for voting is Noon U.S. Eastern Time on Thursday, May 3rd.
Following these results are two expert opinions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. Both experts discussed this new development with various utility executives and fuel managers at the recent World Nuclear Fuel Conference in Budapest, Hungary. We wanted to share their insights with you.
1. Are you currently investing in uranium mining stocks?
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response1.gif)
2. Are you currently investing in one or more funds which holds physical uranium?
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response2.gif)
3. Over the next twelve months, do you plan on trading the new physical uranium futures, soon to be available on the NYMEX?
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response3.gif)
4. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will provide uranium price transparency?
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response4.gif)
5. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will attract more interest in uranium?
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response5.gif)
6. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will add more volatility to the uranium price?
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response6.gif)
7. Which categories do you believe the NYMEX Futures contracts will most benefit? (Choose one or more)
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response7.gif)
8. Which direction do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will cause the uranium price to go?
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/04272007/response8.gif)
Two Expert Opinions
Over the past week, we've spoken to several industry experts about the impact of uranium futures on the uranium price. Will it work? Yellowcake Mining director Dr. Robert Rich, who has spent several decades in every aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle, talked to a number of utility executives at the recent nuclear fuel conference in Budapest. He felt they were pretty excited about the prospects for uranium futures trading. "It may be too early to tell," Dr. Rich told us, "but I think futures trading shows promise."
In a prepared response, TradeTech chief executive Gene Clark wrote of those he has talked with, "The most interested parties have been the electric utility company fuel managers, who seem to be willing to try anything new that will give them the power to halt the price run-up." He also pointed out utility fuel managers have "little, if any, experience in such (futures) markets."
By contrast, after having discussed futures trading with professional traders, Dr. Clark wrote, "The folks we talked to, who have the most experience in these types of markets, are the most skeptical." He explained, "They don't see how such a market could take hold, given (in their words) 'the lack of the basic elements for such a market to evolve.'" He cited the absence of a 'liquid spot market and absence of a linkage to the physical market for the commodity.'
Dr. Clark also pointed out an interesting observation, "The NYMEX futures market potentially sets the stage for a very interesting battle between the traditional market participants and a new set of players. The traditional players have no interest in transparency and liquidity. In fact, that's how they make their money – by making sure it is transparent only to themselves as individual parties."
Clark's conclusion, "Utility fuel managers want to use futures trading to hedge their upside price risk, while potential sellers generally expect prices to keep rising precipitously."
Deixo aqui também a minha opinião:
Penso que o nymex uranium futures irá atrair mais investidores. Espero tambem um continuação de preço de ínicio. Mais tarde se verá.
mas também acredito qua a votalidade até agora practicamente inexistente íra aumentar.
As grandes ganhadoras serão empresas já em exploração ou os near tearm producer.
BTW Forsys com um inverted hammer hoje no Canada, e a PFS a sair dentro de dias.
Novo preço de urânio: :)
(http://www.stockinterview.com/News/05052007/price-graph.gif)