U.S. Nov. capital flows up to $81 billion

[notiCIas]

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Capital flows into the United States increased in November to their highest level since June, the Treasury Department said Tuesday, spurred by jumps in U.S. stock purchases and foreign central bank purchases of U.S. Treasurys.

Purchases of U.S. financial assets rose across the board. Total net capital inflows rose to $81 billion in November from an upwardly revised $48.3 billion in October. Official data showed that inflows exceeded expectations and was more than enough to span the 60 bln usd US trade deficit during the month, easing somewhat long-term concerns over the yawning gap.

The dollar improved after the data was released. The euro fell back to $1.3037 from $1.3065 earlier. The dollar rose to 102.57 yen from 102.50 earlier. Net foreign purchases of domestic securities rose to $99.7 billion in November from $65.4 billion in October.

Foreign purchases of U.S. Treasurys rose to $32 billion in October from $20.9 billion in September. And foreign purchases of U.S. equities rose to $14.5 billion in November, the highest level since May 2001.

Private net purchases rose to $71.8 billion in November from $50.5 billion in October.

Foreign central banks bought $27.9 billion of U.S. assets, including $21 billion of Treasurys, $3.5 million of agency bonds, $1.9 billion of corporate bonds and $1.5 billion in equities.

[notiCIas]

LONDON (AFX) - Fund managers have raised their forecasts for US interest rates in the wake of the very hawkish tone to the minutes of the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, according to a survey by Merrill Lynch

Merrill Lynch's survey of global fund managers for January reveals that the assessment of what constitutes a 'neutral' Fed Funds rate has risen from 3 pct six months ago to 3.4 pct in the case of equity fund managers and 3.5 pct for debt fund managers

David Bowers, chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, pointed to two aspects of the FOMC minutes which had a significant impact on market expectations

Firstly, investors were surprised at the extent to which the FOMC is concerned about inflation risks. Secondly, some FOMC members felt that high levels of liquidity are leading to excessive risk-taking, a warning which investors "ignore at their peril", Bowers said

Concerns over possible aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed have lowered fund managers' risk appetite this month and prompted a shift out of cyclical sectors such as basic materials and into more defensive sectors such as consumer staples, he said

The hawkish tone of the recent Fed minutes also appears to have "awakened the hawks in Europe", with European fund managers far less relaxed about the prospects for monetary policy and inflation this time round, the survey found

Among European fund managers, 71 pct believe the next rate move by the European Central Bank will be up, a rise from 51 pct last month, and reckon a 'neutral' rate to be around 2.6 pct against 2.4 pct in December

Among UK managers too, 55 pct believe the next rate move by the Bank of England will be up, against 33 pct last time, while 36 pct believe the next move will be down. They see a 'neutral' rate at around 5.0 pct

Bowers pointed again to the FOMC's concerns about excess liquidity and said they appear to have prompted concerns across the board

"If excess liquidity is a risk in the US, it is probably a risk elsewhere too," he said

Inflation is also more of a concern, with 71 pct of global managers expecting core inflation to be higher one year from now

"For the first time in six months, higher wages and lower productivity combined are believed to constitute a greater threat of inflation than higher commodity prices," the survey said

Among other findings in the survey, Merrill Lynch global strategy analyst Sarah Franks pointed to a notable bullishness on the European banking sector. Investors are overweight on the sector to a degree not seen since the first quarter of 2004 and continue to view it as undervalued, she said

Investors in Asia and Japan are more optimistic on the regional economic and profit outlook -- although they still expect growth in China to slow and inflation to rise -- and are also very positive on the outlook for the banking sector

Global fund managers continue to want to see companies return cash to shareholders, more than for them to use the money to increase capital spending or to improve their balance sheets, the survey said

[Garfield]

... não achaste a correcção do euro ( e já agora da libra ), muito fugaz para tão grande número ? A importância que foi dada ao financiamento do twin deficit, que foi o motôr, por assim dizer, da queda continuada do dólar, não foi capaz de produzir um efeito à escala. E ainda por cima, contra o iene acabou por deslizar !

Nos meus gráficos, o movimento ascensional do euro só ficará em causa se houver um fecho semanal abaixo dos 1,25, neste momento. Também identifiquei "uma espécie de padrão" no euro (velas diárias ) que ocorreu entre finais de Janeiro e finais de Abril de 2003: depois de uma subida prolongada, houve uma pequena lateralização, com ruptura para novos máximos apenas de  +- 200 pips e depois correção de +- 6%. Reacção à queda mas a ficar aquém dos máximos, volta a cair, faz os mínimos acimo da primeira correcção e reinicia o movimento ascendente de fundo. No meu gráfico, o aspecto com que está a ficar é semelhante. Será que 

O que achas de tudo isto ?

Cumprimentos

Garfield

P.S.: já agora, eu queria colocar aqui o gráfico mas não consigo. Como é que que se faz ?

[Joao Henriques]

Também acho que a reacção foi fraca para tão bom relatório. Além do mais, ontem e hoje a valorização do dólar estancou por várias vezes a 1,30 e no gráfico diário nota-se reacção a um suporte ascendente e também a estes valores foi quando o euro realmente iniciou uma subida mais forte e há qual não tinha havido um retest. Entre 1,285 e 1,3, a subida foi mais vagarosa e com alguma acumulação.

Para colocar um gráfico, tens de o ter gravado no teu computador e depois é fácil, quando estiveres a escrever a mensagem clicar em baixo em "Opções Adicionais", e carrega no botão "Procurar" para ir buscar o gráfico ao teu computador. Se quiseres pôr mais de um gráfico, clica em "mais anexos" e permite pôr até quatro gráficos.