Crude - weekly inventories

[Paciente]

Saíram muito maus os indicadores dos stocks de crude nos EUA.


BULLET: US Energy Dept oil data: "U.S. commercial crude oil..


US Energy Dept oil data: "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories
(excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 1.8
million barrels from the previous week, the first weekly drop after nine
weeks of consecutive builds. At 318.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are at the upper end of the average range for this time of
year. Total motor gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels last
week, putting them at the upper end of the average range. Distillate
fuel inventories remained unchanged last week, and are now near the
middle of the average range for this time of year. A decline in
low-sulfur distillate fuel (diesel fuel) last week counterbalanced a
build in high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil). Total commercial
petroleum inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week, but
remain in the upper half of the average range."



O que era esperado:


BULLET: CRUDE OIL: Attention turns to weekly crude inventory.

CRUDE OIL: Attention turns to weekly crude inventory data at
1030EDT/1430GMT, where oil analysts are forecasting a 1.4mln build in
crude oil supplies as of 15 April. This would be the 10th consecutive
increase and as of last week crude supplies were at their highest level
since June 28, 2002, according to the Department of Energy. Gasoline
inventories are expected to show a decline of 275,000 barrels -- sixth
weekly drop in seven and distillates seen rising 450,000 barrels. Also
key is the refinery utilization rate, which dropped 2.7% of 8 April.
Concensus forecast is for utilization rate to rise 0.9%, but another
strong fall will only highlight the current refinery problem.

[Paciente]

Para os que acham que vamos ver o preço do crude abaixo dos $40, deixo aqui o último relatório da EIA.

Com a procura a aumentar desta forma, com aumentos de +1,2% (motor gasoline), +3% (distillate fuel) e +4,3% (jet fuel) face ao mesmo período do ano anterior, não vejo grandes hipóteses de termos preços baixos no crude.

Em contrapartida do lado da oferta, o aumento foi apenas de +0,7%. Isto apesar de a capacidade operacional das refinarias ter aumentado a semana passada para 91,8%.

Com as refinarias a laborarem próximo da sua capacidade máxima, a verdade é que não conseguem satisfazer a procura de produtos transformados.

E não esquecer que estamos apenas a analisar o mercado norte-americano (o maior do Mundo). Mercados como a China (actualmente é já o 2º maior consumidor mundial) e a Índia têm taxas de crescimento da procura muito superiores às dos EUA.

Ponderando todas as condicionantes deste mercado diria que, infelizmente, é mais provável vermos o crude nos $65 - $70 do que abaixo dos $40.




Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending April 15, 2005

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.4 million barrels per day
during the week ending April 15, up 137,000 barrels per day from the previous
week's average. Refineries operated at 91.8 percent of their operable capacity last week.  Despite the increase in refinery inputs, gasoline production fell slightly last week, averaging nearly 8.7 million barrels per day.  However, distillate fuel production increased slightly compared to the previous week, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.7 million barrels per day last week, down
145,000 barrels per day from the previous week.   Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged over 10.0 million barrels per day, which is
58,000 barrels per day less than averaged over the comparable four weeks last year.  Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and
gasoline blending components) averaged 1.1 million barrels per day last week, while distillate fuel imports averaged 282,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week, the first weekly drop after nine weeks of consecutive builds.  At 318.9 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the upper end of the average range
for this time of year.  Total motor gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million
barrels last week, putting them at the upper end of the average range. 
Distillate fuel inventories remained unchanged last week, and are now near the middle of the average range for this time of year.  A decline in low-sulfur
distillate fuel (diesel fuel) last week counterbalanced a build in high-sulfur
distillate fuel (heating oil).  Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased
by 1.2 million barrels last week, but remain in the upper half of the average
range.

Total product supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 20.3 million barrels per day, or 0.7 percent more than averaged over the same period last year.  Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, or 1.2 percent above the same period last year, while distillate fuel demand has averaged over 4.2 million barrels per day, or 3.0 percent above the same period last year.  Kerosene-type jet fuel demand is up 4.3 percent over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year. 

[Garfield]

e não nos esqueçamos que todos os anos há Inverno 

Abraço

Garfield