Dois artigos para os garimpeiros: leitura de fim-de-semana

[Francisco Monjardino]

Bom dia,

Aqui ficam dois artigos publicados esta semana no site Safehaven.com, textos que penso ser do interesse dos garimpeiros cá da casa.  Boa leitura!!!


-
Gold: The Contra-Cyclical Bull Market is Starting (June 16, 2005)

Gold: The Contra-Cyclical Bull Market is Starting
by Bob Hoye
   

"Bell, book and candle shall not drive me back, when gold and silver becks me to come on." - William Shakespeare

The action over the past week for gold has been very constructive, but to place this in perspective it is worth reviewing that three aspects of gold have been in a bear market since 2003. These include the important exploration sector (www.goldcolony.com has an index of 50 stocks), gold's price in real terms as measured against commodities and, with their failure in April, senior golds. In April, this letter again reviewed that for a real bull market in gold investment demand should be increasing as the business, stock, as well as credit markets rolled over to the next contraction. Until that melancholy event, any rallies in dollar terms, as key currencies strengthened, had to be considered as "faux" bull markets.

Since March, orthodox economic reports indicate that the economy is weakening rather quickly and this should soon bring down the rate of CPI inflation and, thankfully, this will diminish the common goldbugs' ravings about an inflation-driven bull market for the golds or their opposite error, the dismal forecasts about a deflation-driven bear market for golds.

The possibility of a post-boom disinflation, or perhaps outright deflation, is daunting to conventional wisdom about gold. History shows that the real rise in the price of gold following a bubble has prompted some dramatic increases in production and this typically prevailed for some 20+ years. Of course, these have been interrupted by the usual 3-4 year business cycle, such as the one ending now.

It is appropriate then that the three components of the gold market should have been in a contra-cyclical bear against the boom in business, commodities, and credit expansion. The key is to determine that it is ending or, indeed, over.


(Continua...
Gold: The Contra-Cyclical Bull Market is Starting (June 16, 2005))

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- A Gold-Euro Bust! (June 17, 2005)

A Gold-Euro Bust!
by Alex Wallenwein
   

Does this title confuse you? I'll bet it does, because in the minds of most gold investors it seems backwards. To most, it should read: "A Euro-Gold Boom!" That signifies that gold is booming in euro terms. The title of this essay, on the other hand, states that the euro is losing ground against gold, and fast - a far more accurate representation of what's happening.

Going back to an analogy I used in a two year old essay, both the euro and the dollar (and all fiats) are really but hikers on the side of the mountain that represents gold. The mountain's height (i.e., value) never changes as the hikers climb up or down its side, but the good folks of the government/banking sector like to make us believe that does.

The bank/government controlled and managed 'indexes' price gold in terms of the fiat unit. They pretend that the hikers are the measure of value, not the gold, and they solidify that idea in our minds by always expressing the "price of gold" in terms of fiat rather than the other way around. And out of sheer long-standing habit and convenience, even us gold analysts follow their lead.

That grossly distorts the real picture.


(Continua....A Gold-Euro Bust! (June 17, 2005))



Abraço,

[Francisco Monjardino]

Este retirado do FinancialSense.com.


COMMODITY BULL RESUMPTION, Jim Willie CB

Mark down June 10, 2005 as the day the great commodity bull market resumed. The USDollar continued to rise, but that story must be put aside. The euro currency finally reacted to the much anticipated EU votes. The real story was the move back above 4.0% in Treasurys, a jump in gold, continued upward momentum in energy, the upward lift in the HUI goldbug stock index, and the move back to 80 cents in the Canadian Dollar. It all happened last Friday. As in the spring of 2004, the lows in long-term interest rates marked the beginning of the renewed dominance of commodities over debt-backed paper.

.............


(Nota: o artigo é um wrapup da sessão de ontem, logo é provável que o durante o fim-de-semana o link seja alterado. Para o encontrar basta clicar em Wrapup e procurar o de 5ª feira.)