100% em 12 meses

[Jameson]

Artigo The Street publicado a 11 de Agosto 2005

http://www.thestreet.com/_top/funds/supermodels/10237506.html

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Beaten Up, Bouncing Back

So, which companies might double in the next 12 months? I screened for stocks that are at least 50% lower than their five-year high but are up 25% from their lows, have seen increasing trading volume, trade at a low multiple of sales, have the right type of institutional owners and are in a sector on the upswing.

One that looks promising is Danka Business Systems, which leases and distributes business machines. It has a $150 million market cap and a price-to-sales multiple of 0.12, and it trades at $2.37. It's down from a one-year high of $4.15, and its most recent earnings report, posted last week, showed that a recent restructuring had led to an improvement in margins and revenue growth and a reduction in expenses. The stock traded at $4.75 as recently as April 2004, and if the resurrection effort continues on its current path, along with a global economic recovery, Danka can get back there again.

I've been early and wrong on fiber-optics components makers for more than a year, so I have nothing to lose by making Bookham (BKHM:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) my top pick. Its earnings report last week suggested that business has stabilized and turned around. Revenue shows sequential and year-over-year increases of 22% and 57%, respectively. Gross margins improved by 19 points. Its liquidity position was enhanced by an asset sale, and pricing and demand among end users such as Nortel Networks (NT:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) are improving. With a really cheap valuation -- its price/sales multiple is around 0.6, vs. the 1.1 average of its peers -- there are few reasons other than global recession why the stock can't get back to the $6.50-$7 area by the end of 2006.

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The likelihood of more than one of these ideas advancing more than 100% in the next 12 months is pretty small. If you'd like to propose a few of your own, send me an email and put "2X" in the subject field. Candidates must currently trade over $1, have a market capitalization of more than $50 million and trade more than 25,000 shares a day on average. Include the reason for your speculation, and I'll publish the most interesting ideas in a future column.