EUA: Dados económicos e resultados da semana

[notiCIas]

Roller coaster, week 3

Two tough weeks. Now investors brace for big inflation read and Microsoft earnings. What to expect.

April 24, 2005: 8:28 AM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money staff writer


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Ready for another one?

Investors hoping to catch a break after two weeks of whipsawing are in for a disappointment -- next week looks to be just as bumpy.

Over the past two weeks, the Dow industrials index has zig-zagged in a 500 point range, leaving investors battered and just as confused as they were earlier in the year about the pace of growth.

Two weeks ago, it looked like first-quarter earnings might be set for a bigger slowdown than thought -- thanks, IBM. This week, it looked like, well, maybe the slowdown won't be so bad -- thanks, Google.

But instead of gaining comfort, investors began to focus again on oil prices -- back up above $55 a barrel -- and the economy.

Depending on the day, the economy is feared to be slowing down substantially enough in a rising rate environment to hint at "stagflation," or speeding up enough to force the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate increases.

The confusion stems from the economy's transition from a period of more rapid growth -- both in terms of earnings and the economy -- to a period of slower growth, said Peter Brodie, director of investments at Bryn Mawr Trust Wealth Management. At the same time there is confusion about how fast the Fed will need to move to respond to this change.

"Until we move out of this transition period, and get some clarity on these issues, the market is going to remain very volatile," Brodie said.

Key economic reports due next week that will address these issues include: the preliminary read on gross domestic product growth, and its inflation component, the chain deflator index and reads on personal income and spending. There are also earnings due from approximately 165 members of the S&P 500.

GDP will be watched, but the chain deflator index, a key figure watched closely by the Federal Reserve, is likely to be the key economic number next week, said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management.

"The chain deflator is something that (Fed chair) Alan Greenspan supposedly watches closely, and it has so far remained pretty benign even while the consumer price index has risen," Ghriskey said. "If it shows higher inflation, that's going to be upsetting for stocks.

Ghriskey said that earnings from Microsoft after the close Thursday, as well as fellow Dow component Altria's annual meeting on Thursday will be among the highlights on the corporate front.

Biggest earnings week yet
Around 42 percent of the S&P 500 has already reported first-quarter earnings, and so far, the results are looking good, according to earnings tracker Thomson Financial/First Call.

Around 66 percent of those companies have reported higher-than-expected earnings, in particular, the financial sector.

Currently, earnings are on track to rise 12.1 percent versus the same quarter a year ago, according to Thomson Financial; the number is a "blended' figure, representing a mix of reported earnings and earnings forecasts.

Highlights next week include Microsoft and seven other Dow components, including Exxon Mobil. Exxon leads a pack of energy companies due to report results next week.

Energy companies are expected to benefit mightily on the earnings front from the sustained rise in oil prices. As such, should some of these companies post improved earnings next week, that would give a significant boost to the overall year-over-year earnings growth forecast, said David Dropsy, Thomson Financial research analyst.

Key earnings in the week ahead

SBC Communications (Research) is the first Dow component up at bat next week. On Monday, the telecom is expected to report earnings of 33 cents per share, according to First Call estimates, down from 37 cents a year ago.


DuPont (Research), due to report Tuesday, likely earned $1.01 per share, analysts estimate, down from $1.02 a year ago.


Also Tuesday, American Express (Research) is expected to report earnings of 75 cents per share, versus 66 cents a year ago.


Amazon.com (Research), due after the market close Tuesday, likely earned 22 cents per share, analysts estimate, down from 23 cents a year ago.


Boeing (Research), due to report Wednesday, is expected to have earned 55 cents per share, 10 cents less than what it earned a year ago.


Verizon Communications (Research), also due Wednesday, is expected to post earnings of 60 cents per share, versus 58 cents a year ago.


Bristol-Myers Squibb (Research), due Thursday, is forecast to have earned 34 cents per share.


Exxon Mobil (Research) is expected to report earnings of $1.18 per share, when it releases its results Thursday morning. The oil behemoth earned 83 cents a year ago.


Procter & Gamble (Research), another Dow component, is expected to have earned 61 cents per share in the quarter, according to forecasts. The consumer products company, which reports results Thursday, earned 55 cents per share a year ago.


Microsoft (Research) reports earnings after-the-bell Thursday. The technology leader is expected to have earned 32 cents per share, two cents less than what it earned a year ago.

Economic news of note

Existing home sales, due Monday, are expected to have risen to a 6.80 million unit rate in March, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Sales stood at a 6.79 million unit rate in February. New home sales, due Tuesday, are expected to have risen to a 1.200 million unit annual rate from a 1.226 million unit rate in February.


The Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday. Confidence is expected to have fallen to 98.0 in April from 102.4 in March.


Durable goods orders for March are due Wednesday. Orders are expected to have risen 0.3 percent in the month, according to forecasts, after rising 0.5 percent in February.


The preliminary read on gross domestic product growth in the first quarter is due Thursday. GDP is expected to have grown at a 3.5 percent rate in the quarter, after growing at a 3.8 percent rate in the fourth quarter.


Paired with the GDP report, the chain deflator index, closely watched for signs of inflation, is expected to have grown at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the quarter after growing at a 2.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter.


Personal income and spending figures are due Friday. Spending is expected to have risen 0.4 percent in March after rising 0.5 percent in February. Income is expected to have risen 0.4 percent in March after rising 0.3 percent in February. The core PCE index, the spending report's main inflation gauge, is expected to have risen 0.3 percent after rising 0.2 percent in February.


The Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, is expected to have fallen to 62.5 in April from 69.2 in March.

[Francisco Monjardino]

Boeing (Research), due to report Wednesday, is expected to have earned 55 cents per share, 10 cents less than what it earned a year ago.


Verizon Communications (Research), also due Wednesday, is expected to post earnings of 60 cents per share, versus 58 cents a year ago.


Durable goods orders for March are due Wednesday. Orders are expected to have risen 0.3 percent in the month, according to forecasts, after rising 0.5 percent in February.