Tópico do OURO e da PRATA

[Paciente]

Caro fig,

Obrigado pelo alerta. De qualquer forma, e como disse, as posições são para  ir refazendo aos poucos uma vez que a queda pode ainda não ter terminado. É sempre muito difícil acertar com os fundos e topos dos movimentos.

Dos títulos que mencionei apenas a DROOY merece especial atenção pois, apesar de últimamente ter dado boas indicações, está a tentar saír de uma situação técnica difícil que já dura há vários anos. É claramente uma aposta especulativa.

A GG está a fazer o retest à zona de breakout (nos $17,55) e desde que não quebre significativamente dos valores actuais parece-me uma boa aposta. É, de longe, a blue-chip com melhores fundamentais.

A SSRI e a SLW são a minha aposta para o próximo movimento ascendente que espero na PRATA. A TRE é a líder (em termos de força relativa) do sector do OURO e a minha aposta entre as as empresas que sutentam o seu crescimento no modelo de royalties.


Abraço

[RunJo]

Caro Paciente, ou Cª.

Como vou começar a seguir mais de perto a Prata, porque considero um bom investimento de médio/longo prazo, tenho aqui uma questão, relativamente à evolução da cotação, em Abril e Dezembro 2004, a que se deve aquelas fortes quedas ?

Também verifico que as quedas se verificaram após ultrapassarem os $8 

Obrigado pela atenção, e continuação do trabalho interessante neste tópico.

RunJo


P.S. - Tomei a liberdade de utilizar um gráfico mais antigo deste tópico, para uma melhor visão do que falo.

[Paciente]

Em primeiro lugar felicito-o pelo facto de ter tomado a decisão de seguir a PRATA mais de perto. O próximo passo será investir neste metal.

Quanto à questão que colocou, o que se passou em 2004 foram duas situações em que foi visível a manipulação a que este metal está sujeito por parte do Cartel. Se não está a par do que estou a falar sugiro que leia todo este tópico com atenção. São várias as referências que fiz sobre a problemática da manipulação a que o OURO e a PRATA estão sujeitos e as enormes posições "short" detidas pelo Cartel.

Por outro lado, e uma vez que está a pensar dedicar-se mais a este mercado da PRATA, convém saber que este metal tem uma volatilidade muito acentuada (bastante superior ao OURO) e que essa é uma das características específicas deste metal. Por isso mesmo considero que, para além de ser um excelente investimento para o longo prazo, a PRATA é uma excelente activo para "trading".


Abraço

NOTA: As minhas desculpas por só agora responder mas ontem e hoje quase não pude acompanhar os mercados e o Fórum.

[RunJo]

Caro Paciente,

Agradeço a explicação ás minhas dúvidas, aquelas quedas foram mesmo muito feias, é preciso ter uns bons stops, para imprevistos do caminho 

Relativamente à Prata vou fazer mais algumas pesquisas, para aprofundar conhecimentos sobre a especulação a que este metal está sujeito.

Já tinha lido alguns artigos deste tópico de qualidade em especial o ouro, que ajudou bastante quem esteve atento a realizar umas boas mais valias, por isso 1 ponto pelo trabalho desenvolvido.

Continuação do bom trabalho, conta a partir deste dia com mais um leitor, e caso tenha mais algumas dúvidas vou voltar a chatear .... 

RunJo

[Scubawarrior]

     No imediato penso ser prudente estar afastado do ouro também!

   Retiro a "bearish stance" com fecho semanal acima de 480$ ! aliás neste cenário faço SAR!


    abraço ao amigo paciente e james espero que este post vos encontre bem...

....e cumps a todos!

[Paciente]

ONZA LIBERTAD receives green light from the Mexican Congress

Today, Thursday October 27/05, the Mexican Senate has approved the law draft that institutes the one ounce silver coin, 'Onza Libertad' ('Liberty Ounce'), as legal tender. The law draft will now be sent for discussion and ulterior approval to the House of Representatives.

[Paciente]

Barrick Announces Offer for Placer Dome at Value of US$9.2 Billion

Monday October 31, 7:25 am ET



Highlights

- Separate Agreement provides for the sale to Goldcorp of certain Placer Dome assets and interest in a development project for approximately US$1.35 billion in cash.

- Combined company to have a solid foundation of operating assets and financial resources, and an unrivalled pipeline of development projects.

- Placer Dome shareholders to receive US$20.50 per share: approximately 87% in Barrick shares and 13% in cash.

- Offer represents a premium of 27% based on the average closing price of the last ten days.

- Approximately US$240 million in annual synergies have been estimated to date as a result of the proposed transaction and the Barrick/Goldcorp Agreement.

- Transaction is expected to be accretive to Barrick's Net Asset Value, earnings and cash flow.

Barrick Gold Corporation announced today that it will make an offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of Placer Dome Inc. to further strengthen its competitive position within the gold mining industry in a transaction valued at about $9.2 billion (or $9.5 billion on a fully diluted basis). The cash and share offer represents a premium of 24% over Placer Dome's NYSE closing price on October 28, 2005, and 27% over the average closing price of Placer Dome's shares over the last 10 days.

"I am very excited about the value that Barrick can deliver for Placer Dome and Barrick shareholders by combining our assets, people and projects," said Greg Wilkins, Barrick President and Chief Executive Officer. "We will have a solid foundation of operating assets and financial resources, and an unrivalled pipeline of development projects and exploration properties to expand our business internationally. And this pipeline of projects will benefit from Barrick's proven track record in developing new mines."

In the offer, Placer Dome's common shareholders will have the right to elect to receive $20.50 in cash or 0.7518 of a Barrick Common Share plus $0.05 in cash for each Placer Dome Common Share, subject to pro ration based upon the maximum amount of cash and Barrick Common Shares offered. The maximum amount of cash to be paid by Barrick will be approximately $1.224 billion, and the maximum number of Barrick Common Shares to be issued will be approximately 303 million, taking into account the conversion of Placer Dome's outstanding convertible debt securities and outstanding share options. Assuming full pro ration of these maximum amounts, this would result in $2.65 in cash and 0.6562 of a Barrick Common Share for each Placer Dome Common Share subject to the offer.

Barrick and Goldcorp Inc. have entered into an agreement under which Goldcorp will acquire certain of Placer Dome's subsidiaries and an interest in a development project for which Goldcorp will pay Barrick approximately $1.35 billion in cash.

Many Barrick, Placer Dome and Goldcorp operating mines, development projects and exploration properties are in close proximity. The key operational synergies between Barrick and Placer Dome are international in scope: Nevada, Chile, Australia and Tanzania. For Goldcorp, the complementary assets are primarily in Ontario. As a result, total synergies from Barrick's acquisition of Placer Dome and the Barrick/Goldcorp agreement are estimated to be $240 million per year. Barrick currently expects to capture synergies of approximately $200 million a year, due to cost savings in operating and capital efficiencies, general administrative expenses, exploration, tax efficiencies, debt optimization and procurement practices.

This transaction is expected to be accretive to Barrick's Net Asset Value, earnings and cash flow.

The pro forma combined Company, excluding assets to be acquired by Goldcorp, will have:

- 149.8 million in proven and probable gold reserves and 63.3 million ounces in resources(1) based on 2004 year-end figures and Placer Dome's publicly-announced adjustments in 2005;

- Proven and probable copper reserves of 6,542 million pounds as at December 31, 2004;

- Estimated production of between 8.3 and 8.4 million ounces of gold and about 370 million pounds of copper for 2005 from a portfolio of quality operations in key gold-producing districts;

- Estimated total cash costs per ounce of gold in the range of $245-250 for 2005;

- Proven cost-containment strategies to mitigate industry-wide cost pressures;

- Opportunities to grow, with an unrivalled pipeline of nine projects on four continents and extensive land positions for exploration in 16 countries - reflecting a balanced geopolitical risk profile;

- Cash position (assuming cash proceeds from the exercise of stock options) of $2.4 billion as at September 30, 2005, and EBITDA of approximately $1 billion for the twelve months ended September 30, 2005;

- The ability to finance a combined project pipeline without equity dilution; and

- A performance-driven management team with demonstrated expertise in developing, financing and operating large scale mines worldwide.

"There is a natural fit between key Placer Dome assets and our own," said Mr. Wilkins. "We have an established track record of integrating quality assets, aggressively developing projects and tapping the skills of talented employees such as Placer Dome's. We can combine all of these strengths and deliver value for all concerned."

Upon Barrick's acquisition of 100% of Placer Dome, Goldcorp has agreed to acquire Placer Dome's interests (2) in the Campbell, Porcupine, and Musselwhite gold mines in Ontario and the La Coipa silver mine in Chile, as well as Placer Dome's Canadian exploration and reclamation properties. Goldcorp also has agreed to acquire a 40% interest in the Pueblo Viejo development project in the Dominican Republic. The total purchase price for these interests will be approximately $1.35 billion payable in cash on closing, subject to specified purchase price adjustments.

Goldcorp's Chief Executive Officer, Ian Telfer, said: "We believe that our partnership with Barrick adds a unique element to Barrick's offer for Placer Dome. Together, we have been able to create further value by bringing additional synergies to the proposed transaction, and we at Goldcorp will have acquired additional quality operating assets and gained the gold industry's premier mine builder as a joint venture partner in a significant development project."

Barrick's CEO Greg Wilkins added: "We believe that our offer represents a compelling opportunity for Placer Dome's shareholders. It is also an exciting opportunity for Placer Dome employees, whose dedication and skills we value highly. We look forward to working with them in realizing the potential growth of the combined Company."

After the completion of the acquisition, Barrick will remain headquartered in Toronto, Canada, and will consolidate an exploration/technical services office in Vancouver, building on Placer Dome's existing technical services group. Barrick will adapt its regional business unit structure to its new geographic profile by reconfiguring some units and increasing their total number to five: North America, South America, Australia/Asia, Africa, and Russia/Central Asia.

Full details of the offer will be included in the formal offer and take-over bid circular to be mailed to Placer Dome shareholders. Barrick will formally request a list of Placer Dome's shareholders today and expects to mail the take-over bid documents to Placer Dome shareholders as soon as possible following receipt of the shareholders list. The offer will be open for acceptance for 35 days following the date of the mailing. The offer will be subject to certain conditions of completion, including receipt of all necessary regulatory clearances, absence of material adverse changes and acceptance of the offer by Placer Dome shareholders owning not less than two-thirds of the Placer Dome common shares on a fully-diluted basis. Once the two-thirds percentage acceptance level is met, Barrick intends, but is not required, to take steps to acquire all outstanding Placer Dome common shares.

Barrick's financial advisors are RBC Capital Markets and Merrill Lynch; its legal advisors are Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg LLP in Canada and Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP in the US.

(1) Includes Cerro Casale which Placer Dome has entered into an agreement in principle to sell its interest to Arizona Star and Bema Gold.

(2) In the event that Barrick and Goldcorp are unable to complete any part of the proposed transaction as a result of any legal or contractual impediment associated with a particular asset, the parties have agreed to make certain adjustments to the purchase price to reflect that fact.

[Paciente]

Goldcorp Agrees to Acquire Assets Increasing 2006 Annual Gold Production by 50% to Over Two Million Ounces

Monday October 31, 7:30 am ET


VANCOUVER, British Columbia--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 31, 2005--Goldcorp Inc. ("Goldcorp") (TSX:G - News; NYSE:GG - News) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Barrick Gold Corporation ("Barrick") (TSX:ABX - News; NYSE:ABX - News) to acquire certain mining assets and interests of Placer Dome Inc. ("Placer Dome") (TSX:PDG - News; NYSE:PDG - News), in the event that Barrick is successful in its bid to acquire Placer Dome. The consummation of this transaction would increase Goldcorp's annual gold production by approximately 50% to more than 2 million ounces at a total cash cost of less than US$150/oz. Proven and probable gold reserves would increase by 83%.

Barrick announced today that it will make an offer to acquire all the outstanding shares of Placer Dome for approximately US$9.2 billion in shares and cash. Barrick and Goldcorp have entered into a separate agreement pursuant to which Goldcorp will acquire, for approximately US$1.35 billion in cash, certain of Placer Dome's Canadian assets, including the Campbell mine in Ontario and a portfolio of producing and development assets with significant exploration potential.

Highlights of this transaction for Goldcorp include:

2006 gold production will increase by approximately 50% to more than 2 million ounces.

Gold reserves will increase by 83% to approximately 23 million ounces.
Measured and indicated gold resources will increase by 195% to 16 million ounces.

Inferred gold resources will increase by 86% to 11 million ounces.

Goldcorp will maintain its position as the lowest cost producer, with 2006 cash costs below US$150/oz.

The transaction is accretive to earnings per share, cash flow per share, reserves and resources per share, and production per share.

Acquisition of the Campbell mine will allow Goldcorp to consolidate its position in Canada's leading mining district and provides the potential to extract significant synergies given Goldcorp's adjacent Red Lake mine.

Goldcorp estimates total annual synergies of US$30 - US$40 million.

Participation in a large-scale, long-life development asset as well as significant exploration potential related to the Canadian assets to be acquired should significantly enhance Goldcorp's growth profile and its long-term exposure to gold.

No share issuance will be required as Goldcorp's strong cash position and current balance sheet strength will allow it to offer 100% cash consideration.


Subject to any required consents and government approvals, Goldcorp will acquire Placer Dome's interests in the Campbell mine, the Porcupine JV and the Musselwhite JV in Ontario, as well as the La Coipa gold / silver mine in Chile. Under the terms of the agreement, Goldcorp will also acquire a 40% interest in the Pueblo Viejo development project in the Dominican Republic. Barrick intends to retain the remaining 60% interest and will develop and operate this world-class asset. In addition, Goldcorp will acquire Placer Dome's interest in its Canadian exploration properties.

"Acquiring these assets makes a lot of sense due to the geographical synergies with Goldcorp's existing operations. It is accretive to earnings, cash flow, reserves, resources and production on a per share basis," said Ian Telfer, President & CEO of Goldcorp. "It enhances Goldcorp's growth profile and provides significant exploration upside while maintaining Goldcorp's status as the lowest cost major gold producer."

In order to fund this proposed acquisition, Goldcorp intends to use a portion of its current cash balance of over US$400 million, US$500 million from its existing revolving credit facilities, and new committed credit facilities of US$700 million.

Goldcorp is presently the world's lowest cost million ounce gold producer with mining operations in the Americas and Australia. As a result of this transaction, 2007 gold production is expected to double from current levels to 2.4 million ounces.

[Paciente]

Daquilo que eu tive oportunidade de ler parece-me que, no caso de a ABX ser bem sucedida na sua oferta para comprar a PDG, a GG será a empresa que será mais beneficiada em termos de valorização da cotação.

Sugiro que leiam bem a notícia que reporta o negócio entre a ABX e a GG. Notem o destaque (a bold) que eu dei a um dos aspectos do negócio e que tem a ver com o facto de a GG não ir proceder a nenhum aumento de capital (emissão de novas acções e consequente diluição dos lucros por acção) mas sim a uma aquisição de activos com cash disponível.

Isto é música para os ouvidos dos accionistas!

Esta empresa sabe o que faz. Troca dinheiro (dólares), que é um bem abundante, por activos de qualidade com boas reservas de OURO (que é um bem escasso e com a oferta em queda).

Mais uma vez, a concretizar-se o negócio, a GG mostra porque é uma das empresas mais apetecíveis do sector. Crescimento assegurado para os próximos anos, com os accionistas a participarem a 100% nos lucros potenciais (sem esquemas de diluição).

[Paciente]

Não gostei do que li posteriormente ao meu último post!

Parece que a Goldcorp terá que comprar cerca de 13% do "hedgebook" da Placer Dome, isto segundo estimativa do próprio Ian Telfer (Presidente e CEO da GG).

Além disso deverá assumir $1,2 billion de dívidas da PDG.

Para uma empresa que sempre pautou a sua filosofia de management por critérios como "un-hedged" e "no debt" convenhamos que esta é uma forte alteração aos padrões de actuação seguidos pela GG e deixa-me menos entusiamado com este potencial negócio. Será importante que a GG diga o que pretende fazer com o "hedgebook" e quais os planos para eliminar a dívida assumida à PDG.

A favor fica o facto de as reservas (proven and probable) virem a registar forte aumento (cerca de 83%), o mesmo acontecendo com a produção que deverá aumentar 50% para mais de 2 milhões de onças anuais, e um ganho em sinergias (estima-se uma poupança anual de 30 a 40 milhões de dólares) obtidas com a aquisição dos novos activos que em termos geográficos assentam que nem uma luva à GG.

[Scubawarrior]

  oh amigo paciente então mando te um abraço e tu nada. Andas chateado com algo que disse? É que se foi avisa  que a malta corrige! Sabes que os amigos sentem essas coisas!

   um ganda abraço e continua o bom trabalho!

[Paciente]

Boas Scuba,

Epá desculpa lá não ter retribuído o abraço. Não foi nada pessoal (também não fazia sentido nenhum).

E não estou chateado com nada. Não vejo o que possas ter dito que eu pudesse não ter gostado. Eu estou bem e espero que tu também.


Abraço (reforçado)

[fig]

H&S no ouro cuidado....

[Paciente]

Boas fig,

Sim, o H&S está lá faz algum tempo (há três sessões atrás que concluiu o ombro direito).

Esta zona dos $460 é um importante suporte.

Depois, só mais abaixo nos $450 - $452, que continua a ser o target mais provável para o fim desta correcção.


Abraço

[Piloto]

Ao contrário do que possa parecer parece-me uma zona boa para reforçar posições longas , eu assim fiz só não fiz na prata pq a alanvacagem já vai longa