Entrevista a Robert Pretcher: Conquer the Crash Revisited

[Francisco Monjardino]

Boa tarde,


Para os estudiosos e curiosos das Elliot Waves, aqui fica o link para a transcrição da entrevista realizada este Sábado dia 18 pelo Jim Puplava ao Robert R. Prechter, CEO Elliott Wave International.

O tema base da entrevista era o seu livro: Conquer the Crash.


Intro:

Conquer the Crash Revisited

JIM PUPLAVA:  Welcome back everyone, it's time to introduce my special guest this week. It's a real treat to have Robert Prechter, Jr. back on the program. Bob's a chartered market technician. He began his professional career in 1975 as a technical market specialist with Merrill Lynch. He has also been publishing The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly forecast publication, since 1979. He is President of Elliott Wave International and he's an executive director of the Socionomic Institute, a research group. He's received various awards including winning the United States Trading Championship. He was also awarded "Guru of the Decade" by the Financial News Network in 1989. He has also been listed in Timer Digest. He's been published in various magazines, and he's the world's leader in Elliott wave interpretation. He's written 13 books or coauthored 13 books, starting with Elliott Wave Principle – Key to Market Behavior. His most recent successes have been Pioneering Studies in Socionomics and a book he wrote called Conquer The Crash.

Bob, I wanted to have you back on the program because you are one of the foremost Deflationists I can think of and one thing that I think has happened, which is a tribute to you I believe, is you have a lot of copycats.  There are a lot of people who have taken your analysis and copied it as their own without the attribution. So I wanted to have you back on the program, and since our radio audience today is 4 to 5 times bigger than the last time we had you I want to start out with the premise of Conquer The Crash because many people may not yet have read it or may not be aware of it.

ROBERT PRECHTER:  Well, the premise of Conquer The Crash is that a major turning point in the financial world was met in the first quarter of 2000. The bull market that began in December of 1974 ended at that time, in the blue chip averages, and we have turned the  corner  into a completely different environment, which is going to be a bear market environment very much like the 1930s and 40s. Nothing is ever exactly the same as it was in a previous time, but I think there are going to be quite a few similarities. Another time in history that we should be copying to some degree is 1835 to 1859. These were times when stock prices mostly went down and when commodities joined the trend ultimately as well. So when I put those two things together I think what we're going to see is a deflationary environment, probably ending about 7-10 years from now.

JIM:  Now Bob, one thing that has happened when the markets took off in March 2003,  everybody's calling this a new bull market. I would take it from your technical views you would disagree with this more in terms of, let's say, a bear market rally in a continuing bear market trend.

BOB:  Well, you're exactly right and in fact  I'm extremely bearish at the moment. We have a tremendous list of technical negatives in the market. But the important ones are that the retracement level in the S&P500, the main representative of stocks that we have, was about 58%. That's a normal bear market retracement. I think it's over.

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