Dados da semana nos EUA

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Back from the beach

Investors returning after the 4th of July weekend will face June payrolls report, start of earnings.

July 2, 2005: 9:49 PM EDT
By Alexandra Twin, CNN/Money Staff Writer


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Sun-dazed bulls and bears crawling back to work Tuesday after a long holiday weekend can relax -- for about a day. Come Wednesday, things get busy.

Key reads on the economy continue to flow in the first full week of July. Oil prices -- which closed not far from record highs Friday -- could retest the records as the summer driving season heats up. And second-quarter earnings -- expected to grow at the slowest pace in three years -- start pouring in.

But really, "what's going to be driving market action next week are crucial decisions regarding issues such as SPF 8 versus SPF 15," said Barry Ritholtz, market analyst at Maxim Group, referring to the fact that Monday is the 4th of July.

While the summer months are typically quieter on Wall Street, next week could be especially slow, due to the holiday. With all financial markets closed Monday, many Wall Street professionals tend to extend the three-day holiday weekend, making it a notoriously light trading week.

"Anyone who can get away for the week does, and you end up with skeletal staffs," Ritholtz added.

While this would seem to imply a quiet week, that's not necessarily the case. "When trading is that thin," he noted, "it can be very volatile."

Trading last week was certainly volatile, as oil prices hit record highs and the Federal Reserve boosted interest rates and signaled it would continue to do so for the time being.

However, stocks managed to end the week little changed. For a look at last week's market, click here.

Last Thursday brought the last day of the quarter and the half year. For a look at how the market did during that time period, click here.

Earnings and June jobs report on tap
Dow stock Alcoa reports earnings, unofficially kicking off the so-called earnings season. GE -- a good measure of the economy due to the broad nature of its business -- reports earnings too.

However, the markets are more likely to be moved by the economic news.

Reports are due on factory orders, and wholesale inventories, and most importantly, employment in June.

"The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

"We've had this pattern of strong month, weak month lately," Stanley added. "May numbers were weaker and the expectation is for June numbers to be stronger."

Seasonal factors may also play a role in next week's market.

While the overall month of July is typically a difficult one for the market, the beginning of the month is often more positive, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.

According to the Almanac: over the last 33 years, on average the Dow gained 0.5 percent in July, the Nasdaq lost 0.2 percent, and the S&P 500 was basically flat -- losing 0.04 percent.

However, the early part of the month tends to be more positive, as it kicks off the second half of the year, and therefore typically brings in an inflow of retirement funds.

Here's a more detailed look at what's on tap for next week.

Key events in the week ahead

May factory orders, due Tuesday, are expected to have risen 2.8 percent in the month, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Orders rose 0.9 percent in the previous month.


The Institute for Supply Management's read on the services sector of the economy is due Wednesday. The index likely fell to 57.8 in June from 58.5 in May, according to forecasts.


Alcoa (Research) reports quarterly earnings Thursday evening. The aluminum producer is expected to have earned 48 cents per share, according to Thomson/First Call, up from 46 cents a year ago.


General Electric (Research) is up Friday morning. The diversified company is expected to report earnings of 44 cents per share, up from 38 cents a year ago.


Friday morning brings the biggest economic news of the month, the June employment report. Employers are expected to have added 180,000 to their payrolls after adding 78,000 in May. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to hold steady at 5.1 percent.


The May read on wholesale inventories is also due Friday morning. Inventories are expected to have risen 0.5 percent in the month, according to forecasts, after rising 0.8 percent in the previous month.