Three of Five Post-Rally Threats Have Lessened- Jim Cramer

[The Mechanic]

"Three of Five Post-Rally Threats Have Lessened"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
3/19/2008 7:01 AM EDT


"After big runs, you immediately hear the following:




1. Earnings are going to be terrible.
2. Commodity prices are out of control.
3. Housing prices are still falling.
4. Credit is a real problem and mortgages are hard to come by and at higher prices.
5. Someone else -- a bank, a credit firm, a monoline -- is about to fail.

Then we go down again. And we get frightened.

I don't have anything to counter the first one. I particularly think that tech earnings are going to be bad, like those out of Sony Ericsson. I think the only big winners in tech will be those who go up against big losers, and the wins won't be that great anyway: Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) over AMD (AMD - commentary - Cramer's Take), Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) over everybody, Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) over everybody. The safe place is real-economy "Rest of World"ers like CSX (CSX - commentary - Cramer's Take) and U.S. Steel (X - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Nucor (NUE - commentary - Cramer's Take), or the drug stocks with big overseas exposure.

Commodity prices? What can I say, oil's going to $125, where hopefully people will drill enough to find more, or we will switch to the much more abundant natural gas, which is why I like that group so much. The other commodity pressures are political. That's ethanol. Maybe a new regime will realize that, but this one's so awful about ethanol I can't bear it.

But three, four and five are changing a tad, which means that  rate of change of the declines in housing and brokerage may be slowing. Or in non-calculus: Things aren't getting as bad as fast as they were.

In six more months the bulk of the resets of the heinous 2-and-28 mortgages -- encouraged if not pushed by Greenspan and Bernanke -- will have run their course. The maximum bulge of horrible resets starts right now, the second through fourth quarters of 2006, the housing peak. It's the worst part. But then it is over.


That matters. Because these resets are either causing people not to spend or they are causing people to abandon their homes. Both add to a recession, and the latter brings down the housing prices around the home, causing deflation.

In the last 48 hours though, we have seen a 75-basis-point cut in short rates, a deal reached where Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) can start lending and buying its own bonds back, and a dramatic decline in housing starts, again. Fewer homes, more abundant credit, at lower rates: That's how you attack the crisis head on, and it is being done. I can't emphasize enough how important it is to get Fannie Mae to help lower rates as its mortgage paper is what's trading so crazily and keeping rates high. When you think that the facility that allows banks to swap bad bonds for cash for 28 days, you can see that the non-Treasury side of the ledger just got a lot better.

If you couple those positives with the idea that when, not if, banks fail we just call up a bigger, better bank and tell them they don't have to pay up for the equity and the Fed will practically guarantee the transaction's profits, we know that the systemic risk is now taken off the table for all but a collapse of Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is, unfortunately, still too big to fail.

All of these problems are going to linger. All of these problems haven't vanished. But all of them didn't get worse lately, in fact they got a little better. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Eu não acho que isto seja "palhaçada"  . Nem tudo o que o Cramer diz é "palhaçada" . Pode é fazê-lo de um modo "apalhaçado" por vezes . Mas não podemos generalizar e pensar que o que ele diz , não vale nada ! ( tal como não podemos tambem apelidá-lo de "guru" só porque percebe um bocado disto ...)

Neste artigo, por ex. , podemos não concordar com tudo o que ele diz ou até nada ( que não é o meu caso ) , mas temos de ver os argumentos que ele utiliza e isso, é interessante .Ele produz informação de valor . Não é só " Vái subir !! " , " Vái descer !! " . Ele tem uma opinião muito válida e isso é optimo para podermos formar a nossa própria opinião .

É isso que eu, sem concordar com tudo o que ele diz ( que tambem diz muita coisa com que não concordo ) gosto de ler nele .

Qualquer um "faz o relato" do que está a acontecer . Vái-se à Bloomberg ou a Reuters e temos lá jornalistas a fazê-lo . Mas , uma opinião , pode sempre ter um valor acrescentado , se nos pode acrescentar mais à " simples noticia" .

Claro , como opinião que é, pode estar errada . Cabe a cada um , então, decidir .



Um abraço ,

The Mechanic


( ps - Um abraço pra ti tambem Ulisses e desculpa lá o "empréstimo feito ao teu "estabelecimento" ...)

[tiagodandre]

Mech...

Por mim estás à vontade para citar o Cramer, eu não considero nula a sua opinião, apenas fartei-me do "show"...mas ler os textos é mais fácil (não há berros) , logo podes sempre colocar aqui os comentários mais relevantes!

E volto a frisar que esta "tasca", também agradece a tua presença...


Cump.

[The Mechanic]

 
Eu , sinceramente, o programa não o vejo . Gosto é de ler o que ele às vezes escreve .

E nem tenho problemas que gostem dele ou não . Cada um sabe de sí .

Não gosto é que venham chamar "cromos" aos que gostam de ler o Cramer ou outro qualquer . É que eu posso gostar e aí, já me estão a chamar "cromo" a mim . E uma coisa é eu ser "cromo" , outra é chamarem-me ...   


Um abraço ,

The Mechanic