Urânio - espectacular valorização e novo máximo na cotação spot

[Scubawarrior]

   Respeito a tua opinião mas o risco inerente a negociar empresas com liquidez média inferior a 1 milhao de títulos é muito mais elevado.É necessário mt maior ponderação de factores e maior controle de money management.
         

    Abraço,


nota: quando se faz um almoço??? ando mortinho de estar com a malta amiga do CI.

[Paciente]

"... o risco inerente a negociar empresas com liquidez média inferior a 1 milhao de títulos é muito mais elevado.É necessário mt maior ponderação de factores e maior controle de money management."


Concordo com isto! Apenas referenciei a FRG e URZ porque afirmaste que "a CCJ e a USU por certo seguirão na frente das valorizações do sector".


Abraço


NOTA: a FRG e a URZ já apresentam uma liquidez muito apreciável. Ontem ambas negociaram mais de 1 milhão de acções. A FRG aproxima-se rápidamente da fasquia do "1 billion dollars" de capitalização bolsista sendo que a seu volume médio (em quantidade) se situa acima das 700.000 acções negociadas por sessão.

[nunofigarot]

Como já escrevi a dias: O uranium bull market vai continuar.
Daqui para a frente será importante selecionar as exploradoras em estado avançado ou as produtoras das exploradoras que nunca iram tirar uma só grama de urânio do solo.

A esta tabella não foram incluidas pelos analistas o forsys metals, em excellente posição.
Não esquecer que o projecto Valencia fica perto da Rossing Mine do Gigante Rio Tinto e tambem de Heinrich de Paladin.
Tive hoje resposta de e-mail do CEO Parnham. "Shortly" iram ser apresentados os detailos do spinn off dos projectos de non uranium (ongopolo gold project).
Tambem a qualquer Momento poderá sair a Prefeasibility study.

Nas minhas contas, Forsys ficará assim um grande candidato para um Take Over pela parte de Rössing. Este oferta, pelos valores actuais (Reserva confirmada de Urânio, número de acçoes, Cut off na produção, no mínino será de 14 a 15 $ kanadianos.
Tenham atenção  a esta exploradora.

FSY em Canada
www.forsysmetals.com


Bons investimentos






Uranium Bull Market Too Overheated?

By Jon A. Nones
12 Apr 2007 at 01:08 PM GMT-04:00

LAS VEGAS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research, told listeners at the Uranium Stock Summit that there are three stages of a bull market: Stealth mode, worry mode and mania mode. He said the uranium bull market is entering the mania mode.

Although the bull cycle is nearing and end, Casey said a lot of money can still be made. He said that mania stage in the dotcom era lasted about 2 to 3 years, and some of the best profits came out of it.

Rick Rule of Global Resource Investments today told listeners that we are already in the midst of a uranium mania, "an insane mania." He recommended selling.

Casey introduced Rule as one who perpetually sells early. Rule agreed.

"I always buy too early, I always sell too early," he said. "My yearly return is 60%, so I'm going to continue to sell early."

Rule began his presentation saying "the thrill is gone; the easy money has been made." He preached minimizing risks as opposed to maximizing reward giving three serious risk factors in the market today:

1. At 113/lb, the price of uranium does not have to go up for miners to make it worthwhile.

2. Only 20-40 management teams survived the 20-year bear market in the industry, which leaves about 550 uranium companies searching for expertise.

3. Most of the companies don't have any uranium, perhaps only in the company name, and therefore the spot price is irrelevant.

"What's free in the uranium market today?" Rule asked. "Nothing."

Rule used an analogy of betting on horse races. He said when a person places a bet on a horse, he or she is betting on the horse to win, show or place. Too many uranium companies today are merely threatening. Only 10% will win, place or show and 50% won't finish the race at all, he said.

"We have two choices in this market, we can be contrarians or we can be victims," he added. "Every great party leaves a vicious hangover, so why not stock a little Alka-Seltzer."

He said every investor should have two exit strategies in mind:

1. What's the exit strategy of the company? Are they looking to be bought out or eventually to produce?

2. What's your exit strategy? Why do you own the stock?

"Make the money, take the money," he said.

In a discussion panel, Jim Mustard of Haywood Securities, Kevin Bambrough of Sprott Asset Management and Dave Forest of Casey Energy Confidential all concurred that taking some profits is never a bad idea.

Mustard said investors should keep an eye on the psychology of the market and spot prices for indications of overheating.

"Don't be afraid to sell," he told listeners. "I do not see dark clouds on the horizon" in the commodities bull market, he said, but investors should cut back on the "pages of investments" on occasion to concentrate on the quality plays.

Mustard added that the market still has a long way to go, but "I don't think we're going to see this kind of growth" in the next five years.

Bambrough said Sprott has already exited Cameco [NYSE:CCJ; TSX:CCO], Paladin [TSXZunge rausstreckenDN] and SXR Uranium One [TSX:SXR] because "everyone is looking at these companies." He said uranium prices will top out in the next 12-18 months.

Forest told investors to take profits on market hype minus fundamentals.

"We are late in the cycle," he said. "We've gone from homeruns of 10-baggers to doubles and triples."

He recommended closely watching other commodity markets as precious and base metal price fluctuations can affect the uranium market.

"Don't rely on the rising tide to lift all boats," he said. "Keep in mind that things turn quickly."

Although the easy money has been made, analysts all agreed that there are still investment opportunities available in the industry.

Investor's just need to be "very selective," Rule concluded.

Check back here soon for top stock picks from Rick Rule, Jim Mustard, Kevin Bambrough, Phil O'Neill of MP1 Capital and Marin Katusa of Casey Research.

[Paciente]

Get Ready for U.S. Uranium Futures!


The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) said on Monday that it signed an agreement to introduce uranium futures on its electronic platforms next month.

NYMEX Chairman Richard Schaeffer told reporters, "We expect to create a benchmark contract for this important and underserved global market."


Penso que o aparecimento de futuros sobre o urânio irá desviar capital especulativo do sector das acções de urânio. Numa primeira fase o sector poderá ser algo afectado pelo saída de dinheiro para os futuros. Mas o potencial do sector é grande e as 16 fusões e aquisições que ocorreram nos últimos 12 meses provam isso mesmo.

Por outro lado, os futuros vão ser um catalizador ainda maior da cotação do urânio. Mas atenção, a volatilidade quase inexistente neste metal (que não pára de subir há vários anos sem qualquer queda semanal) vai sofrer grandes alterações . Preparem-se para grandes variações de preço (as quedas serão um novidade neste metal).

Inicialmente, a liquidez dos futuros deve ser reduzida, mas depois terá tendência a aumentar pois há muito boa gente que prefere especular directamente no metal.

[Paciente]

Já agora deixo aqui mais uma informação, que julgo ser importante para quem não tem acesso ao mercado Canadiano e deseja investir em acções do sector do urânio.

A Denison Mines (Ticker: DML.TO) vai passar a cotar nos EUA, na AMEX. O símbolo que a Denison Mines adoptará nos EUA será DNN. O início das transacções na AMEX será já a partir de amanhã, dia 19ABR07.

[nunofigarot]

NYMEX URANIUM FUTURES SURVEY RESULTS

By James Finch and Julie Ickes
April 27, 2007

More Interest in Uranium, More Volatility in Price

Earlier this week, Dow Jones MarketWatch reporter Myra Saefong contacted us with some very interesting questions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. These contracts will commence trading on May 7th. Previously, we had made inquiries about the viability of this futures market, and realized that a few expert opinions would be insufficient to do this story justice.

Rather than simply respond with our opinion, we decided to poll a cross-section of our readership. While not everyone was surveyed (we randomly emailed only about 1500 subscribers), we did receive an adequate response – nearly 400. We gave those subscribers less than 36 hours to respond by clicking on a hidden web page, which automatically tabulated their responses for us. Because of the service we utilized, their names and email addresses remained anonymous.

We are aware that our emails reached utilities, banks, financial institutions, hedge funds, stockbrokers, and retail investors. We emailed to readers in about 60 countries. More than 60 percent of our readership is in the United States. Other key geographical regions include Japan, Canada, Germany, Israel, France, Spain/Portugal, Scandinavia, United Kingdom, Mexico, and Australia/New Zealand.

Below are the responses to our survey questions. The polling service also provided us with a bar chart to illustrate those responses. We would like to expand our sampling by encouraging anyone reading this article to also vote their opinion on these same questions. The deadline for voting is Noon U.S. Eastern Time on Thursday, May 3rd.

Following these results are two expert opinions about the NYMEX uranium futures contracts. Both experts discussed this new development with various utility executives and fuel managers at the recent World Nuclear Fuel Conference in Budapest, Hungary. We wanted to share their insights with you.

1. Are you currently investing in uranium mining stocks?




2. Are you currently investing in one or more funds which holds physical uranium?




3. Over the next twelve months, do you plan on trading the new physical uranium futures, soon to be available on the NYMEX?




4. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will provide uranium price transparency?




5. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will attract more interest in uranium?



6. Do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will add more volatility to the uranium price?




7. Which categories do you believe the NYMEX Futures contracts will most benefit? (Choose one or more)




8. Which direction do you believe the NYMEX futures contracts will cause the uranium price to go?




Two Expert Opinions

Over the past week, we've spoken to several industry experts about the impact of uranium futures on the uranium price. Will it work? Yellowcake Mining director Dr. Robert Rich, who has spent several decades in every aspect of the nuclear fuel cycle, talked to a number of utility executives at the recent nuclear fuel conference in Budapest. He felt they were pretty excited about the prospects for uranium futures trading. "It may be too early to tell," Dr. Rich told us, "but I think futures trading shows promise."

In a prepared response, TradeTech chief executive Gene Clark wrote of those he has talked with, "The most interested parties have been the electric utility company fuel managers, who seem to be willing to try anything new that will give them the power to halt the price run-up." He also pointed out utility fuel managers have "little, if any, experience in such (futures) markets."

By contrast, after having discussed futures trading with professional traders, Dr. Clark wrote, "The folks we talked to, who have the most experience in these types of markets, are the most skeptical." He explained, "They don't see how such a market could take hold, given (in their words) 'the lack of the basic elements for such a market to evolve.'" He cited the absence of a 'liquid spot market and absence of a linkage to the physical market for the commodity.'

Dr. Clark also pointed out an interesting observation, "The NYMEX futures market potentially sets the stage for a very interesting battle between the traditional market participants and a new set of players. The traditional players have no interest in transparency and liquidity. In fact, that's how they make their money – by making sure it is transparent only to themselves as individual parties."

Clark's conclusion, "Utility fuel managers want to use futures trading to hedge their upside price risk, while potential sellers generally expect prices to keep rising precipitously."


Deixo aqui também a minha opinião:
Penso que o nymex uranium futures irá atrair mais investidores. Espero tambem um continuação de preço de ínicio. Mais tarde se verá.
mas também acredito qua a votalidade até agora practicamente inexistente íra aumentar.
As grandes ganhadoras serão empresas já em exploração ou os near tearm producer.
BTW  Forsys com um inverted hammer hoje no Canada, e a PFS a sair dentro de dias.

[nunofigarot]

Novo preço de urânio: