Erros a evitar

[Mr. Smith]

Erros a evitar nos mercados financeiros

De vez em quando gosto de reler alguns apontamentos que tenho retirado ao longo dos tempos com o objectivo de evitar cometer alguns erros cometidos em situações anteriores.

Numa altura em que os mercados estão a despertar um pouco mais a atenção dos investidores, resolvi transcrever aqui para o fórum, algumas das situações que, na minha opinião deverão ser de evitar.

Se entre vós, alguém quiser partilhar outras situações a evitar, estaremos a melhorar a nossa maneira de actuar nos mercados.

Erro nº1 - Baixar o preço médio

Este é talvez o erro mais básico dos investidores mas bastante frequente naqueles que se iniciam no mercado accionista.
Quando os preços começam a cair a reacção habitual dos investidores é a de adquirirem mais títulos a esse novo preço mais baixo com o objectivo de baixar o preço médio dos títulos detidos em carteira. Mas se o mercado está a caminhar na direcção contrária da que inicialmente se esperava, será sensato continuar-se a assumir essas posições contrárias? Assim, os investidores acabam por colocar grade parte do capital numa posição perdedora, tendo por vezes de esperar largos períodos de tempo para o poder recuperar.




Erro nº2 – A pressa de Ganhar muito

Este é também um erro muito vulgar entre aqueles que actuam no mercado financeiro. Após alguns trades que se revelam bem sucedidos, o trader fica com a sensação de que conhece o mercado, que é fácil ganhar ou que se está a atravessar uma fase òptima e passageira e que por isso há que retirar proveito rápido dessa situação. Assim, sente uma grande tentação para colocar mais dinheiro no mercado. Esta situação tornou-se ainda mais vulgar nos nossos dias em que é bastante fácil recorrer-se a crédito para investir ou a produtos alavancados em que facilmente se atinge uma exposição de montante muito superior ao disponível em carteira.
Nesta situação, basta uma ligeira inversão do mercado, no sentido contrário ao esperado, o investidor vê-se abrigado a fechar posições, normalmente fazendo-o nas posições ganhadoras e limitando assim constantemente os lucros, sendo impossibilitado de deter títulos em carteira de modo a que eles se possam desenvolver o trade e atingir os objectivos inicialmente previstos.


Gostava de partilhadas outras situações a evitar.

Bons negócios

Smith

[mileage_run]

Mr.Smith! how do you do?!

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Trading isn't about winning or losing, it's about self discovery.

The market will all too soon locate, expose and exploit your weaknesses.

Don't think of the market as an opponent to be bulled, bloodied, battered and beaten. Its resources are far greater than yours. It's better to concede the conceit of market as ocean in all its obvious metaphoric diversity and potential.

Remember that irony is alive, well and constantly at work in the universe; the cornerstone to the construct of the divine comedy.

Trading isn't about winning or losing, it's about building equity. Taking strategic losses is key to building equity.

A market is a market. It can do anything it wants. It doesn't have to make sense. A market is only obliged to itself.

Just as persistence allows mediocrity to soar, a persistent, rule driven trading approach seasoned with just the right touch of intuition can turn your sow's ear into a silk purse.

That which is true, never changes. A market, a dynamic revaluating mechanism, always changes. There's very little that's true about a market.

Beware of the new paradigm, it may not be wearing any clothes.

If you don't crave profit, profit may be attracted to you. If you don't fear loss, loss may not be attracted to you.

If you want to be condemned, keep doing what you've always done.

Worst positions leave last.

The market is an imperfect game. Chess is a perfect game. All information is transparent. Either you are a smart player and can see or you are a challenged player. There is no luck. Poker is an imperfect game. You don't know all variables and bluff by itself can win the day.

You only learn from losing trades. A winning trade is simply a confirmation of your current infallibility.

Do everything you can to keep a losing trade an annoyance rather than a memorable event.

If you are in a winning position, remain aware that just as the sea reclaims land, the market wants its money back.

Never disrespect the possible.

A trade is a trade. It is a financial event. It is not a justification or repudiation of your geopolitical or ecopolitical model.

Don't convince yourself that you've figured out the puzzle. The puzzle keeps changing. Eventually the puzzle just disappears.

As soon as you can't recognize the art of your current trade, get out.

You have to be willing to give back, to fold, to square your position to cash. If you don't give back they will end up taking you away.

Markets spend as much time going up as they do going down, the only difference is amplitude.

As the futures market is a zero sum game and the instruments of trade expire continually, regression to the mean should be a frequent event. The stock market is totally different; for every buyer there doesn't have to be a seller and the life of a stock is theoretically, potentially, infinite. Regression to the mean should be a "less frequent" event at Wall and Broad.

Good trades are often counter intuitive.

There's far greater skill in trading well when you're behind than in trading well when you're ahead.

Ascertaining the correct value for 6 variables before making a trading decision is not better than ascertaining the correct value for 3 variables. When it comes to heuristics, kiss.

All your answers have questions.

Markets are mechanisms that foster irrational behavior.

Don't let your trading be held hostage to the need for discernment.

As soon as market action can be explained and generally understood, expect the market to change.

Before entering a trade, mentally understand and accept all potential loses.

If you have to win you'll lose.

If you have to lose, you will.

Look for ways to take action. Idle brilliance addles.

Good trades usually set up with a sense of inevitability and unfold in slow motion.

Remembrance may be the inability to let go.

In trading, feeling comfortable should be an uncomfortable feeling.

You can't continue to court disaster without eventually landing a date.

You're only as young as your last winning trade.

People feel more comfortable with losing positions and more nervous with winning positions.

If you have a position in a market and the average true range of that market is 128 points and the market has only had a range of 28 points so far, start figuring out which side of the market is going to deliver the next 100 points.

When asked to play a game, then stopped mid game and asked how they are doing, people invariably state that they are performing at better levels than they actually are.

Work on four things: fear, anger, frustration and judgement; it's all derived from fear.

Anger is the clash of desires.

Whatever you believe is undoubtedly correct until the passage of time offers another suggestion.

Simplify. If you are using 4 indicators to trade, use three. If you are trading 5 markets, trade 4, then reexamine the number of indicators you're using.

Markets generally lack conviction, especially post 9/11. That's why trend traders have a low incidence of winning. Take advantage of that.

What funds buy, they sell. No fund is ever going to take delivery of a barrel of oil or a bag of coffee. Take advantage of that.

You manifest the world through interpretation.

Life is at least the non-annihilating coexistence of opposites.

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