ESLR - Entrada arriscada

[rounders]

Boas,

Entrada na ESLR algo arriscada.

Deixo o gráfico para quem quiser dar opinião
Tecnicamente não parece estar muito má
Deu sinal de venda no MACD semanal em Março encontrando-se agora numa zona interessante macd quase a inverter.

Vamos acompanhando está compra foi em antecipação e na ideia que o gap não será tapado tanto no diário como no semanal.

P.S Entrada no título hoje a 8.80.

Bons negócios

[Pedro Miranda]

Viva Rounders,

Aqui vai um comentário.

Pessoalmente acho que pode ser arriscado ainda... Mas isso já tu dizes no título do tópico

Em anexo está o padrão que penso ser aplicável, a ESLR está com uma tendência descendente de médio prazo, e ainda não tem uma confirmação de inversão, dado que os máximos e mínimos tem sido consecutivamente inferiores. Há alguns sinais de força nos últimos tempos, nomeadamente aquela abertura em gap up que foi agora fechado, mas para mim o ponto mais importante numa potêncial posição é a ruptura da resistência descendente (hoje nos 9.20 mais coisa menos coisa) e como confirmação de inversão um fecho ai nos $10.50 coisa menos coisa.
O meu gráfico está corrigido daquele spike no intraday.

Onde tens o teu stop ?

btw, vou deixar este papel na minha watch list, pois caso parta os $9.20...

um abraço,

[rounders]

Boas Miranda

Obrigado pela rápida análise o mercado não está a ajudar vamos esperar pelo fecho.

Bons negócios

Abraço

[rounders]

Boas,

 
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Evergreen Solar), incorporated in August 1994, develops, manufactures and markets solar power products enabled by its String Ribbon technology that provide reliable and environmentally clean electric power worldwide. String Ribbon technology is a process for manufacturing crystalline silicon wafers, which are the primary components of photovoltaic cells. Photovoltaic cells generate direct current electricity when exposed to sunlight. Solar power products in general are built-up through four stages of production: wafers, cells, modules and systems.
A crystalline silicon wafer is a flat piece of crystalline silicon that can be processed into a solar cell. The Company's rectangular wafers measure 80 millimeters by 150 millimeters and are approximately 300 microns thick, with 150-200 micron thick wafers to be introduced in 2006.
A solar module is an assembly of solar cells that have been electrically interconnected and laminated in a physically durable and weather-tight package. A typical solar module can produce from 20 to 300 watts of power and range in size from 2 to 25 square feet. A single 100-watt solar module can power a standard 100-watt light bulb, or approximately 3% of the power requirements of a typical home in the United States. The Company's solar modules range up to 120 watts in power, and a 180-watt module is scheduled for 2006 release.
A solar system is an assembly of one or more solar modules that have been physically mounted and electrically interconnected, often with batteries or power electronics, to produce electricity. Typical residential on-grid systems produce 2,000 to 6,000 watts of power. The Company's solar cells produce approximately 1.5 watts of power each.
The Company's revenues are primarily derived from the sale of solar modules, which are assemblies of photovoltaic cells that have been electrically interconnected and laminated in a physically durable and weather-tight package. Evergreen Solar sells its products using distributors, systems integrators and other value-added resellers who often add value through system design by incorporating the Company's modules associated with electronics, structures and wiring systems. Applications for Evergreen Solar's products include on-grid generation, in which supplemental electricity is provided to an electric utility grid, and off-grid generation for markets where access to conventional electric power is not economical or physically feasible. The Company's products are sold primarily in Germany and the United States.
In January 2005, Evergreen Solar entered into a strategic partnership agreement with Q-Cells AG, an independent manufacturer of solar cells. The agreement provided for the organization and capitalization of EverQ GmbH, which is a limited liability company and the Company's consolidated subsidiary. In November 2005, Renewable Energy Corporation ASA (REC), a global manufacturer of solar-grade silicon and multicrystalline wafers, joined the EverQ partnership. The purpose of EverQ is to develop and operate a facility in Germany to manufacture, market and sell solar products based on the Company's String Ribbon technology using fabrication processes that combine the Company's, Q-Cells' and REC's manufacturing technologies. The EverQ manufacturing facility is located in Thalheim, Germany, and is expected to have an initial capacity of 30 megawatts (MW) per year.
On February 21, 2006, Evergreen Solar announced that it has entered into a four-year supply contract with S.A.G. Solarstrom AG (S.A.G.), based in Freiburg, Germany. The agreement calls for the Company to supply photovoltaic modules to S.A.G. over the next four years. On February 28, 2006, the Company announced that it has entered into a multi-year supply contract with Global Resource Options, Inc. (GRO), a Vermont-based solar power distributor and system integrator. The agreement calls for Evergreen Solar to supply photovoltaic modules to GRO over the next four years. On March 15, 2006, Evergreen Solar announced that it has entered into a multi-year supply contract with Donauer Solartechnik (Donauer), a German-based solar power distributor. The agreement calls for the Company to supply photovoltaic modules to Donauer over the next four years.
The Company competes with BP Solar, Kyocera Corporation, Mitsubishi, Solar World AG, Sharp Corporation and Sanyo Corporation.
During the third quarter of 2006:
•   Product revenues increased 227 percent to $36.2 million from $11.1 million in the third quarter of 2005, with sales of product manufactured at the first EverQ factory - EverQ-1 - in Germany contributing approximately $25.4 million of the total revenue and over 22 percent gross margin, including 31 percent gross margin for the month of September.
•   EverQ-1 ramped to full production capacity in the third quarter. As a result, EverQ achieved profitability for the third quarter of approximately $2.3 million.
•   EverQ's second factory - EverQ-2 - broke ground in the quarter and is on track to begin production in the second quarter of 2007, and should reach full capacity by the end of 2007.
"Evergreen Solar continued to execute on all major initiatives in the third quarter," said Richard M. Feldt, President and Chief Executive Officer. "We completed the ramp to full production at the first EverQ factory one quarter ahead of schedule - progressing from groundbreaking to full capacity and profitability in 15 months. We finalized the long-term polysilicon supply, license and technology transfer agreements related to EverQ's partnership, subject to the receipt of regulatory approval. These agreements strengthen our ability to leverage the advantages of our String Ribbon platform. Reflecting the partners' confidence in our String Ribbon technology, we broke ground for the second EverQ factory well before executing the agreements for expanding EverQ." "In Marlboro, we made substantial progress on our Quad Ribbon furnace development to the point where we believe it is likely that the next EverQ expansion - EverQ-3 - will be designed around that new four-ribbon furnace. Additionally, we successfully introduced in Marlboro a new cell fabrication process that increases cell efficiency to just over 14.5 percent, which brings us very close to the industry median." "Third-quarter EverQ revenues exceeded our expectations as we quickly brought the full facility online," Feldt said. "In the fourth quarter, we will be converting the entire EverQ factory to thin wafer production. We believe the combination of this conversion with other manufacturing enhancements will enable us to improve our silicon productivity to less than six grams per watt by year end."
Third-Quarter 2006 Financial Results
Product revenues increased 227 percent to $36.2 million from $11.1 million in the third quarter of 2005, with sales of product manufactured at the first EverQ facility in Germany contributing approximately $25.4 million of the total revenue. Gross margin for the third quarter was 15.7 percent, compared with 10.4 percent for the third quarter a year ago and 4.1 percent for the second quarter of 2006. The increase in product gross margin was expected and primarily resulted from the incremental volume in EverQ production and sales. Net loss attributable to common stockholders for the third quarter of 2006 was $5.6 million, or $0.08 per share. This figure includes the write-off of manufacturing equipment obsoleted by the implementation of new technology at Marlboro amounting to approximately $550,000. This compares with a net loss of $4.6 million, or $0.07 per share, for the third quarter of 2005 and a net loss of $7.5 million, or $0.11 per share, for the second quarter of 2006. Evergreen Solar recorded equity-based compensation expenses of approximately $1.1 million during the third quarter of 2006.
Business Outlook
"Through the EverQ partnership, we have captured the initial promise of our String Ribbon technology and demonstrated that it is exportable, scalable and profitable - at 30MW," Feldt said. "As a result of our accomplishments to date, we have created a clear path to grow the EverQ business to roughly 10 times its current size, generating 300MW of solar production by 2010. Based on our technological capabilities and additional growth opportunities, we believe Evergreen Solar is strongly positioned to be in the forefront of helping the solar industry achieve economic parity with retail grid electricity."
2006 Guidance and EverQ Accounting Clarification
With the signing of the EverQ partnership agreements, and after receipt of German regulatory approval, Evergreen Solar, Q-Cells and REC will become equal partners in EverQ. As a result, all three partners will share equally in the net income generated by the partnership, and Evergreen Solar will adopt the equity method of accounting for its share of EverQ results. Evergreen Solar will continue to market and sell all modules manufactured by EverQ under the Evergreen Solar brand, as well as manage customer relationships and contracts. However, the Company will no longer report gross revenue or cost of goods sold resulting from the sale of EverQ's module production. Despite this change in accounting for product revenue, there will be no change in Evergreen Solar's economic value realized from the EverQ partnership - the Company will still report one-third of EverQ's profit. Evergreen Solar anticipates quarterly revenue from product manufactured at its Marlboro facility to continue in the $10 to $12 million range for the foreseeable future including the fourth quarter of 2006. The Company expects EverQ's fourth-quarter revenue to be in the $20 to $25 million range. Gross margin at Evergreen Solar's Marlboro facility will likely be in the range of 5 to 15 percent for the foreseeable future, as ongoing development of new technology initiatives in Marlboro will continue to consume capacity and limit gross margins. However, actual gross margins in Marlboro could vary widely from this range depending on the timing and extent of the deployment of new technology initiatives. For the fourth quarter of 2006, EverQ gross margin is expected to be sequentially flat compared with the third quarter of 2006, despite costs associated with the complete conversion to the thin ribbon platform, as well as other near-term technology enhancements.
2007 Guidance
In 2007, in addition to reporting revenue from its Marlboro facility, the Company plans to report additional line items for revenue derived from EverQ. Evergreen Solar will separately report the fees received from EverQ for the marketing and sale of EverQ modules by the Company. In addition, the Company will separately report revenues derived from payments by EverQ for the Company's R&D efforts on behalf of EverQ, and revenues derived from royalty payments for its ongoing technology contribution to EverQ. These EverQ-related revenues are expected to total approximately $10 million to $15 million in 2007. For 2007, Evergreen Solar expects revenue from EverQ-1 to be in a range of $100 to $125 million (assuming current exchange rates) as it completes the transition to the thin ribbon platform by the first quarter of 2007 and plans to add approximately 5 MW of incremental capacity at that plant by the second quarter of 2007. The Company anticipates that EverQ-2 will commence volume shipments during the second quarter of 2007, and should reach full manufacturing capacity by the fourth quarter of 2007. EverQ-2 is expected to generate revenue in the range of $60 to $75 million (assuming current exchange rates) in 2007. Although it will not be reflected in Evergreen Solar's reported revenue in the future, the Company believes that separately reporting the combined revenues of EverQ, which in 2007 is expected to be a one-third owned unconsolidated subsidiary of Evergreen Solar, with Evergreen Solar's own revenue is useful to investors as it shows the true market penetration of Evergreen Solar's String Ribbon technology. Combined EverQ and Evergreen Solar world-wide product revenue in 2007, which incorporates Evergreen Solar's proprietary String Ribbon technology, are expected be in the range of approximately $200 to $250 million.
Growth Beyond EverQ
"The success of EverQ has substantially enhanced our expansion possibilities," Feldt said. "With EverQ, we have demonstrated the exportability, scalability and commercial possibilities of String Ribbon. We expect to significantly expand Evergreen Solar beyond our Marlboro facility and the EverQ partnership. We are targeting growing our company by at least an additional 150MW over the next three to four years, with factories that are on par operationally and financially with EverQ. We are evaluating options for expansion that include other potential partnership arrangements as well as go-it-alone strategies."
About Evergreen Solar, Inc.
Evergreen Solar, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets solar power products using proprietary, low-cost manufacturing technologies. The Company's patented crystalline silicon technology, known as String Ribbon, uses significantly less silicon than conventional approaches. Evergreen Solar's products provide reliable and environmentally clean electric power for residential and commercial applications globally. For more information about the Company, please visit www.evergreensolar.com.
Evergreen Solar® is a registered trademark and String Ribbon(TM) is a trademark of Evergreen Solar, Inc.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Evergreen Solar cautions you that any statements contained in this press release that are not strictly historical statements constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those related to: the receipt of regulatory approval from the German authorities approving the change in ownership of EverQ; the incorporation of the Company's Quad Ribbon furnace in EverQ-3; the conversion of EverQ-1 to thin wafer production; the Company's ability to improve its silicon productivity; the expansion of EverQ's Thalheim operations; EverQ's future production capacity and production schedule; the Company's strategic partnership and other growth opportunities; the advancement of photovoltaic technology and the achievement of economic parity with grid electricity; the Company's ability to benefit from the net income and economic value generated by EverQ; the Company's future accounting treatment of its ownership stake in EverQ; the Company's plans to report and recognize revenue derived from EverQ; the amount of EverQ related revenues the Company expects to realize; the licensing of the Company's proprietary technologies to EverQ; ongoing development of new technology initiatives; the Company's expectations regarding future quarterly and annual performance including growth, revenue, earnings and gross margin performance; and the Company's expectations regarding EverQ's future quarterly and annual performance including growth, revenue, earnings and gross margin performance. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, among other things, the following factors: the receipt of regulatory approval from the German authorities approving the change in ownership of EverQ; the conditions to which any German government grant is subject, which includes, but is not limited to, receipt of European Union approval; the risk that any German government grant that has or may be approved is subject to forfeiture or repayment in whole or in part if EverQ fails to continue to meet the conditions for such grants or if such grants for any reason become unavailable from German or European Union sources; the success of EverQ is subject to numerous risks associated with the development of manufacturing facilities in international markets and depends on many factors that are outside of the Company's control, including the availability of government grants and contributions by Q-Cells and REC; the Company's business and results of operations could be materially impaired as a result of poor manufacturing or product performance or higher costs attributable to the expansion or operation of EverQ's manufacturing facilities; the market for solar power products is emerging and rapidly developing, and market demand for solar power products such as the Company's products is uncertain; the Company has limited experience manufacturing large volumes of solar power products on a commercial basis at acceptable costs, which it will need to do in order to be successful; the Company faces intense competition from other companies producing solar power and other distributed energy generation products; the risk that the Company may fail to bring to market new products under development or that any such products may not achieve commercial acceptance; the risk that technological changes in the solar industry could render its solar products uncompetitive or obsolete; the Company sells via a small number of reseller partners, and the Company's relationships with current or prospective marketing or strategic partners may be affected by adverse developments in the Company's business, the business of the Company's strategic partners, competitive factors, solar power market conditions, or financial market conditions; the market for products such as the Company's solar power products is heavily influenced by federal, state, local and foreign government regulations and policies, as well as the availability and size of government subsidies and economic incentives, over which the Company has little control; and the Company is susceptible to shortages of specialized silicon that the Company uses in the manufacture of its products. In addition to the foregoing factors, the risk factors identified in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission - including the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 16, 2006 and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on August 9, 2006 (copies of which may be obtained at the SEC's website at: http://www.sec.gov) - could impact the forward-looking statements contained in this press release. Readers should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. The Company disclaims any obligation to publicly update or revise any such statements to reflect any change in Company expectations, or in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements may be based, or that may affect the likelihood that actual results will differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.
                 Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR - News)
           Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations
                (in thousands, except per share data)
                             (unaudited)


                                                      Year-to-Date
                                   Quarter Ended       Period Ended
                                 October  September October  September
                                    1,       30,       1,       30,
                                    2005      2006     2005      2006
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Revenues:
Product revenues                $11,092   $36,231  $32,059   $69,846
Research revenues                    94       215      328       894
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Total revenues                    11,186    36,446   32,387    70,740
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Cost of revenue:
Product revenue costs             9,934    30,525   29,887    64,654
Research revenue costs               94       215      328       895
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------
Total cost of revenue             10,028    30,740   30,215    65,549
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Gross margin                       1,158     5,706    2,172     5,191
Operating expenses (1):
Research and development
  expenses                         2,971     4,662    7,709    12,813
Selling, general and
  administrative expenses          3,115     5,121    8,067    15,917
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Total operating expenses           6,086     9,783   15,776    28,730
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Operating loss                    (4,928)   (4,077) (13,604)  (23,539)

Other income (loss)                   55      (698)     696       753
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Net loss before minority
interest                         (4,873)   (4,775) (12,908)  (22,786)

Minority interest in EverQ loss
(income)                            310      (828)     633     1,584
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

Net loss attributable to common
stockholders                     (4,563)   (5,603) (12,275)  (21,202)
                                 ======== ========= ======== =========


Net loss per share attributable
to common stockholders (basic
and diluted)                     $(0.07)   $(0.08)  $(0.21)   $(0.33)

Weighted average shares used in
computing basic and diluted net
loss per share attributable to
common stockholders              61,178    66,127   59,049    65,229


                                                      Year-to-Date
                                   Quarter Ended       Period Ended
                                 October  September October  September
                                    1,       30,       1,       30,
(1) Includes the following
amounts related to equity
awards (in thousands):             2005      2006     2005      2006
                                 -------- --------- -------- ---------

   Cost of product revenues           $-      $117       $-      $355
   Research and development
    expenses                           -       330        -     1,115
   Selling, general and
    administrative expenses            -       608        -     2,598
               
Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR - News)
                Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
                  (in thousands, except share data)
                             (unaudited)


                                            December 31, September 30,
                                               2005          2006
                                            ------------ -------------
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents                      $30,742       $34,254
Marketable securities                           85,465        55,643
Accounts receivable, net of allowances for
  doubtful accounts and sales discounts of
  $65 and $150 at December 31, 2005 and
  September 30, 2006, respectively                4,124        22,826
Grants receivable                               16,295        18,107
Inventory                                        3,634        12,420
Interest receivable                                541           700
Other current assets                             4,052        18,738
                                            ------------ -------------
  Total current assets                          144,853       162,688

Deposits on fixed assets under construction       8,217         1,596
Restricted cash                                   1,582           795
Long-term investments                                 -           986
Deferred financing costs                          2,877         2,545
Fixed assets, net                                71,430       142,521
                                            ------------ -------------

Total assets                                   $228,959      $311,131
                                            ============ =============

Liabilities, minority interest and
stockholders' equity
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable                               $12,210       $11,832
Short-term borrowings                            4,131        38,676
Other accrued expenses                           1,625        28,780
Accrued employee compensation                    1,778         2,523
Accrued warranty                                   705         1,123
                                            ------------ -------------
  Total current liabilities                      20,449        82,934

Subordinated convertible notes                   90,000        90,000
Deferred grants                                  16,284        24,316
Other long-term debt                              3,553        16,152
                                            ------------ -------------
Total liabilities                               130,286       213,402

Minority interest in EverQ                       11,223        10,354

Stockholders' equity:
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 100,000,000
shares authorized, 61,965,231 and
67,928,659 issued and outstanding at
December 31, 2005 and September 30, 2006,
respectively                                       620           680
Additional paid-in capital                      182,345       201,113
Accumulated deficit                             (93,009)     (114,211)
Deferred compensation                            (1,036)            -
Accumulated other comprehensive loss             (1,470)         (207)
                                            ------------ -------------

  Total stockholders' equity                     87,450        87,375
                                            ------------ -------------

Total liabilities, minority interest and
stockholders' equity                          $228,959      $311,131
                                            ============ =============

Para mais informações: http://www.evergreensolar.com/

   

.

[rounders]

Boas Miranda

Tenho o stop a 8.30 ainda são 0.50 centimos quando fiz a análise o título estava a 8.43 ainda não tinha o papel na minha watch list mas mesmo assim entrei.

Tecnicamente a próxima semana será bastante importante na minha opinião um fecho acima dos 8.9 no diário pode ser um sinal de recuperação do título depois francamente mais importante temos os 9.80.

Entrei no título basicamente pela divergência escandalosa que têm no MACD diário tripla divergência e pelo MACD semanal estar a começar a curvar para cima.

Bons negócios.

P.S. Das entradas mais arriscadas que fiz nos últimos