Break out the Flock of Seagulls tapes, the market environment looks similar to two decades ago.
May 27, 2003: 8:29 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Taking a look at what's going on in the world today, it's not hard to recall those dark days of 1987 when worries over the United States' mounting current account and budget deficits, along with the weak dollar, unhinged world financial markets. Even now, more than 15 years later, the memory of watching the market lose nearly a third of its value in just two weeks still aches.
But while it's crucial to remember what the endgame looked like in 1987, right now it may be more important to remember what happened in the years that preceded it. Before the bust, there was the boom.
It began in September of 1985, when finance ministers from the Group of Five -- the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain and France -- met at New York's Plaza Hotel to discuss what was seen as an overvalued dollar. The greenback's strength was hurting U.S. companies badly, creating global imbalances and raising the potential for increased trade protectionism. (Remember those Detroit auto workers taking sledgehammers to Japanese cars?)
To counter this, the G5 decided that "some further orderly appreciation" of other currencies against the dollar would be a good thing.
And so the race was on, with the dollar steadily declining against other currencies. Because traders understood that the Fed would be slow to raise rates, since that would lead to a stronger dollar, bonds rallied. And stocks flew -- in the two years following the Plaza Accord, the S&P 500 ran up 75 percent.
Seems similar to what's happening now, don't it? The Fed has signaled that it isn't going to raise rates anytime soon, the Administration is talking down the dollar, and so far there hasn't been too much grousing about this from abroad -- in fact, some currency analysts even said that last week's G8 meeting looked like a "mini Plaza accord."
So what should an investor do? Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Ryan Renicker, who says he believes the current period closely mimics Plaza Accord period, points out that from the March 1985 to November 1987, food, beverage and tobacco companies outperformed the S&P by 47 percent, and that household and personal products beat the S&P by 44 percent. Both groups benefit from a lower dollar.
Meanwhile, hotel, restaurant and leisure stocks underperformed the S&P by 53 percent and bank underperformed by 40 percent
O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação
aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação
de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.
