Fifth waves in stocks are always less dynamic than third waves in terms of breadth. They usually display a slower maximum speed of price change as well, although if a fifth wave is an extension, speed of price change in the third of the fifth can exceed that of the third wave. Similarly, while it is common for volume to increase through successive impulse waves at Cycle degree or larger, it usually happens below Primary degree only if the fifth wave extends. Otherwise, look for lesser volume as a rule in a fifth wave as opposed to the third. Market dabblers sometimes call for "blowoffs" at the end of long trends, but the stock market has no history of reaching maximum acceleration at a peak. Even if a fifth wave extends, the fifth of the fifth will lack the dynamism of what preceded it. During fifth advancing waves, optimism runs extremely high, despite a narrowing of breadth. Nevertheless, market action does improve relative to prior corrective wave rallies.
"C" waves - They are third waves and have most of the properties of third waves. It is during this decline that there is virtually no place to hide except cash. The illusions held throughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over. "C" waves are persistent and broad. Advancing "C" waves within upward corrections in larger bear markets are just as dynamic and can be mistaken for the start of a new upswing, especially since they unfold in five waves.
Observações e comentários
Tal como tinha afirmado na análise anterior, o índice deveria "tocar" no topo do canal ascendente de curto prazo. Foi isso que aconteceu hoje. Está tudo pronto, então,... para as quedas (onda 4). Contudo, a contagem do tempo indica faltarem duas sessões para se concluir um impulso de 55, um de 13 e outro de 3. É, assim, bem possível que ainda haja um esticão que conduza a novos máximos (até porque, no micro prazo, esta subida parece ir ainda na micro-onda 4!).
Isto quer dizer que, com grande probabilidade, a próxima semana será de quedas nos índices americanos.
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