Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, July 17, 2003:
Sell 982.75/ Cover Up to +5 pts. (Sell B/D with Bear Ugly setup)
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today on this option expiration day.
We do not make Headline Calls on Option Expiration days due to the different strategies being implemented on the exchanges. The large variety of option positions that are being taken off and entered into to create new hedges often create a market situation that I do not like to be trading in. There are various underlying operations going on during these days that can make the market erratic sometimes and sometimes just plain dead.
We also do not offer Headline Calls or TCF Trade Setups on the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement days along with certain market pre holiday trading days. These are all good research days or extra time away from the market days.
I really want to thank all of you for your very kind and encouraging comments about our Market Call briefings and the work we do here. I try and read all of your emails when I can and it is sure appreciated very much. The last few weeks since we have begun the 21st Century Futures Morning Call has been very busy getting everything setup nicely along with our special information sections.
As mentioned yesterday, we also now have our entire archives of Morning Calls going back to April of 2002 for your study and research. We have been making exact, crystal clear calls on the market direction for some time as you can see. Kindly let your trader friends and anyone who wants to know exactly where the market is going each day know about us. I sure appreciate it. This will be a very exciting year for us as I begin to reach out to more traders, make some public appearances and do some TCF seminars (which I hope you will attend).
THURSDAY'S BEAR UGLY MARKET GIVES US A GREAT ACADEMIC OPPORTUNITY. We got a great chance on Thursday's action for me to show you what a day looks like when our Headline Call is going to be wrong and hence CANCELLED by the early gap lower. In addition to this you were able to see what a Bear Ugly market looks like even though it did not pan out for the full 8-10 points.
This is very important because it shows you how our TCF trading process has a contingency back up plan when our Headline Call is not going to pan out plus gets us on the correct side of the market while taking all precautions to PROTECT CAPITAL accumulated from previous trades.
First, one of our rules for our Headline Calls that is very important and just based on COMMON MARKET SENSE is on the Canceling of the Headline Call. When we are making a Headline Call like we did for Thursday which says, " On a lower open, market to rally" (I know there was a second part to this) we are looking for a slightly lower opening, early drop and then a reversal rally to show an UP DAY. Now when we get a huge gap drop lower off the open, some market news that is weighing heavily on the indexes and we see the High Five go Bear Ugly the first thing you want to think is..."Cancel Headline Call- Look to get short".
These Bear Ugly days are described in our Trading Handbook and will usually drop 8-10 points lower off the BreakDown Hour One pivot. We got a typical Bear Ugly opening setup today and I am actually glad it occurred this early into our 21st Century Morning Call launch because it academically gave you the opportunity to see what a REAL Bear Ugly market set up looks like. The problem with today though was that the market hit our 977.00 target goal lower mentioned several times all week and selling dried up.
This is not usually the case with Bear Ugly days. These Bear Ugly days are based on very specific market events and signs. Even though I repeat it over and over traders get confused about this even though it is quite SIMPLE. What A Bear Ugly day is Not: A flat to lower opening with a market that moves down towards the Hour One BreakOut that develops a strong Bearish High Five is NOT necessarily a Bear Ugly trading day. Just remember, we need a very heavy, ugly market with bad news and some "shock value" on the opening action to give us that negative power to move 10 points below the first hours low. That days market has to suck pretty bad (pardon the _expression). Otherwise we are most likely going to be looking to BUY that B/D under other conditions as I bring them up in these Morning Call briefings.
HOW DO YOU LIKE THAT 977.00 LOWER GOAL CALL MENTIONED ALMOST A WEEK AGO! Low today on the S&P500 big cars was 976.80. As shown on the chart above we moved our stop from the BreakDown Hour One pivot short at 982.75 to 984.75 with only a 2 pt. max. loss AFTER the market pulled back around 5 points lower and then returned to near the entry.
When the market failed to plow through 977.00 and indeed rallied up almost 5 points off of it the next stab lower was a chance to take the money and run. Either way you would NOT have lost money on this trade and could have covered the short going into the close for at least 2-3 points of profit.
So either way it was simply a day that was definitely a Bear Ugly setup that just did not get fully hammered lower. We'll get another one soon that will really get hammered hard and you will be able to see what that looks like. Take lots of notes or print out today's action and briefing so you remember what to look for.
Today's Call & Briefing:
No Headline Call today due to Options expiration. We will just let the day go and do some extra research keeping an eye on the opening and the reaction to any early rallies which we are more or less expecting.
No particular bias today. Sometimes I give a bias with the Non Headline Call days but we have some convoluted indicators right now and the Market Force indicators are neutral. We blew through the Pit Bull to the downside which is bearish on Thursday and opened below the Value Area which was another bearish sign. So for today watch the reaction to the Pit Bull, the Value Area, the opening price and of course the High Five in relation to all of these.
Value Area: 978.50 - 985.50
As mentioned above, watch this area today for clues on market bias going into next week.
Buy Pivot Target: 974.75 - 975.75
No trade at this Pivot today. Just observation.
Sell Pivot Target: 989.00 - 988.00
No trade at this Pivot today. Just observation.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 995.90
We solidly blew through this Pit Bull 10 Day Moving average to the downside and now we are in a "Sell Rallies" mentality. We would expect that rallies up to this 995.00 area will find some resistance.
Pro Trader's Action
It's been a great week both S&P500 handle accumulation wise for the TCF Trade setups we are showing you here as well as academically for our new subscribers and visiting traders. Today is an excellent day for some extra research (such as reading our "Ask Mohan" Q&A section or our past archives) or perhaps some extra free time off during this summer period. We'll be ready to get back into the action on Monday and I'll be there bright and early in your email box with the Headline Call and the TCF trade setups we need to put some dough$ in our pocket.
Have a great weekend! Mohan
Se não receio o erro é porque estou sempre pronto a corrigi-lo
There's no bull side and no bear side. JUST THE RIGHT SIDE!
#forex4u - chat forex MIRC
O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação
aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação
de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.
