Incrivel como por vezes as nossas muitas pessoas pensam da mesma forma!! Acabei agorinha mesmo de me inscrever na Breakpoint Trades e fiquei já impressionado... não é que o tipo pensa da mesma forma que eu e disse tudo o que penso na última newsletter??
General Market:
The market put on a huge rally last week off support levels that were noted on the daily charts. Surprisingly, based on the market indicies and sectors, the market looks bullish here. The Nasdaq, DOW, and S&P 500 have all formed nice Horizontal Rectangle patterns with clearly defined horizontal resistance. Also, most of the individual sectors have formed bullish patterns as well. If these patterns are broken to the upside, then the market will likely rally much longer (the Nasdaq could go to the 2000 plus area, the DOW could go to the the 10000 area, and the S&P 500 could see 1100-1200) amazing! When Horizontal Rectangles are broken to the upside, an average price rise of about 20% can be expected see the education section.
I know that the economy isn't good; jobs are going overseas, a falling Dollar, Huge government deficits, unimaginable consumer debt (credit cards, mortgage, etc) and low savings, war in Iraq, etc. Also the PE ratios of the indicies are in the 30's and 40's, now where near the historical low of about 8 near market bottoms.
So yes, I agree, the fundamentals are horrible, however, the charts of the US stock market are currently bullish and that's how we should continue to play this Market, on the long side, via breakouts.
Interestingly, starting this month, the market will officially be in a Bull Market! Yes, a Bull Market I said. A Bull Market is defined by an average rise of 20% or greater in a years time, the Nasadq, DOW, and S$P 500 are all up over 20% since last October.
Now, don't get me wrong, this is not the end of the Secular Bear Market (which lasts greater then 10 years) this is simply a Cyclical Bull Market inside the long term Secular Bear Market. Cyclical Bull Markets typically last between 1-3 years.
Secular Bear Markets typically have 3-4 Cyclical Bull Markets inside them, but the overall trend is down when all is averaged.
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