We'll bring back the weekly chart of the Nasdaq today to show you where we still
stand in terms of support lines. As you can see, we did manage to pull out of the
slump we were in last week, crossing back above the long-term support line (green).
In fact, we also crossed back above the nine-week line (red) at the beginning of this
week, and haven't traded below it yet. The thirteen-week line (blue) ended up never
being tested. All in all, charts are now back to 'mostly' bullish. The one
reservation we have is that the current Nasdaq Composite level, at 1937, is resting
right on top of the support line. But, that's what support levels are for.
Given that we've already made a higher high for this week, and a higher low, it looks
as if now we're back in the bullish trend we've been in since March, despite the
minor damage inflicted several days ago. But all the same, we're not out of the woods
just yet; the stochastic lines are technically giving a sell signal, and the bearish
MACD cross is still intact.
As we mentioned last Wednesday, the most important price on a weekly chart is the
weekly close, so it will be interesting to see where we end up on Friday. But with
markets being closed Thursday, and only open half of a day on Friday, we only have a
few trading hours left to get to where we're going. As of now we're still above
support, but that support line is rising. On Friday, that line will be at 1914, so
we'll draw our line in the sand there.
NASDAQ CHART
S&P 500 COMMENTARY
Despite today's bearish outside reversal (so far), there's still no real reason for
panic. We're still up by 1.4% for the week, and actually bounced off of our 10 day
moving average line (red) a few moments ago. And it's now pretty clear that the
reversal after touching on the lower Bollinger Band last Friday was for real. In
short, the S&P 500 chart remains generally bullish. In fact, we're already seeing a
couple of new buy signals here. The Chaikin line crossed back above zero a couple of
days ago, and the faster MACD line (blue) has turned up again and is now threatening
a bullish cross of the slower line (red). Stochastic lines (not shown) are also still
in 'buy' mode.
We had mentioned a couple of times that the days around the Thanksgiving holiday were
typically bullish, even if on lighter volume. But the volume today, and even
yesterday, has been even lighter than we would normally expect. So don't read too
much into any movement, good or bad. The market's pretty thin right now, and probably
will be until Monday.
S&P 500 CHART
BOTTOM LINE
It's often the case where the obscure data (that actually has meaning) is put on the
back page, as the same old familiar headlines are rehashed and placed again as
leading stories. So today we'll take a look at some of the back page news that may
have gotten missed. While today so far is shaping up to be a losing day, there were
actually 266 new 52-week highs made on the New York Stock Exchange, while 201 new
Nasdaq stocks hitting 52-week highs. The number of NYSE advancers is about the same
as the decliners, but for every 7 Nasdaq advancers there are about 10 Nasdaq
decliners......yet there are only four Nasdaq stocks and four more NYSE stocks that
are making new 52-week lows. Eight new lows, with 467 new highs? But the indices are
down! Anybody can tell you what the markets are doing now, but it's the data that
seems relatively uninteresting that can often tell where the indices are going. Watch
the new highs and lows - it's good data.
But there's still some good front page news too. The new weekly unemployment claims
came in at 351,000, where economists were expecting 360,000. The four week average is
now well under 400,000, which is the benchmark level for defining a 'good' job market
and 'bad' job market. The other major headline worth mentioning is yesterday's GDP
announcement. The reported 8.2% is great, but the real economy (the one we all live
in work in day in and day out) is NOT growing at an 8.2% rate. It IS growing, but
take that high figure with a grain of salt.
Se não receio o erro é porque estou sempre pronto a corrigi-lo
There's no bull side and no bear side. JUST THE RIGHT SIDE!
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