Transcrevo:
"The US stock market has continued to mark time since my last letter. I was bullish then. Should I remain bullish or turn bearish?
I have long believed that the market is not trying to deceive us. The signals are there for all to see. All you have to do is know how to read them.
One of the most reliable signals in the stock market is the trend of a 26-week exponential moving average. Whatever market I trade, I always begin my analysis on weekly charts and plot this long-term MA in yellow. As long as the yellow line keeps rising, the market is essentially bullish. When it turns down it is bearish. Open your weekly charts of the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500 and plot a 26-week EMA on each of them. Which way does it point? That is direction in which one should position oneself in the market.
Another important factor to keep in mind is the distance of the latest price from its 26-week EMA. Prices appear to be attached to their EMA with a rubber band - once it becomes stretched to its usual limit, it snaps back. Take a look at your charts and find out whether prices are closer to or farther away from value than they were a month ago. This is how you begin the process of deciding whether to trade the market primarily from the long side or the short side."
Uma posição muito correcta e respeitável do ponto de vista técnico, a longo prazo faz todo o sentido não pensar em posições curtas quando as tendências de longo prazo apontam no sentido oposto.
Abraço a todos,
Cem
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