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"Retail Sales, the Big Picture"

Autor: Sakamoto
Data: 13-04-2004 03:48

Key Factors

Risk is for an even larger rise given a rebound in ex-autos after a flat Feb and the effect of large tax rebates.
Autos provide a small lift given the modest rise in the number sold.
Non-auto durables expected to be flat but could surprise to the upside after back to back declines.
Higher gasoline prices provide a lift and merchandise sales expected to show a small rise.
Estimate consistent with stronger March PCE growth and Q1 PCE growth of a stronger 3.7%.

Consumer spending is trending steadily higher. The monthly retail sales numbers can be greatly impacted by fluctuations in auto sales. However, the ex-auto sales numbers have been on a steady rise. The tax cuts gave a boost to the upward trend, and larger than normal tax refunds in early 2004 should do the same for Q2. Low interest rates continue to fuel purchases of durable orders, providing added support. The upturn in the economy, rising gains in employment and the continued rise in consumer confidence and the stock market support forecasts that retail sales will continue on a similar steady pace through 2004.

Saka

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"Retail Sales, the Big Picture"

Sakamoto

13-04-2004 03:48

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O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.