Foi com grande curiosidade que na passada sexta-feira, "apanhei" e li no site FinancialSense.com um artigo do analista Martin Goldberg que focava precisamente a hipótese de o Nasdaq 100 estar a formar um Head & Shoulders Complex, lançada pelo Zecalote.(http://www.clubeinvest.com/phorum/read.php?f=10&i=55704&t=55703)
The Nasdaq Has Topped – Now Looks to Complete Multiple Head and Shoulders Pattern
Below is a one-year daily chart of the Nasdaq index. I believe that the index has topped and formed a multiple head and shoulders (HAS) pattern. As I draft this on Wednesday evening, it appears that the neckline at about 1,875 has been “tickled” but not yet decisively broken to the downside.
The action over the last few months was one of lower highs and lower lows, a bearish sign. It is also notable that since the January top, each rally has come on decreasing volume, suggesting a progressive exhaustion of buying power. In addition, the downtrends have come on increasing volume compared to the uptrends, a sign of distribution. (Also see discussion of Money Flow, below.) With all the positive Greenspan talk, and good news out of Dell Computer, and Microsoft, the Nasdaq has yet to muster a sustained meaningful rally over the last week.
What would confirm that I was right about the multiple HAS pattern? If the neckline were broken downside by a close that was 3% or more below the neckline, that would confirm the validity and completion of the HAS pattern. Three consecutive daily closes below the neckline would also validate the pattern. However, it is also relevant to note that when a HAS pattern is whipsawed, it generally occurs with a sharp and tradable rally to the upside. This can happen, and although it would not invalidate the pattern; it would frustrate and annoy many Nasdaq bears. No one ever said that this was an easy game to play!
What would confirm that I was wrong and the multiple HAS was invalid? A close above 2,100 would invalidate the pattern in my view. Although admittedly, I do not have a documented technical basis to support this, I believe the trend for additional rallies to shake out the bearish and draw the public into the market is still very much intact and may continue further. This trend is evident by the two apparent sucker’s rallies that have occurred since January, and I believe this is a trend that can continue until the HAS is validated as described above.
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