Os quatro primeiros parágrafos do artigos descrevem na perfeição o actual momento do mercado...
«Holding the Line
You can throw rational thinking out the door. If you tried to explain the market’s machinations since the summer of last year, you would need the services of a psychiatrist more than you would the services of an analyst. Investor horizons don’t extend far beyond the latest news updates on the war.
One-day markets rise because of postponement of war; the next day they explode on the upside because of the outbreak of war. Markets then fall because the war is taking too long; the next week they rise because the war is going well. Economic news, earnings warnings, bankruptcies and accounting scandals have taken a back seat to the coverage of the war. In military terms, records are being set in terms of the U.S.’ ability to advance so far so quickly. The problem is that with 24-hour news coverage, most of it is news filler. There are too many analysts and pundits making comments on every single fire fight, every little skirmish, each fatality, as well as forecasting the military’s next move.
Markets respond to each news event emotionally, moving up on so-called good news and falling hard on bad news. Since last summer with the failure of monetary policy to stem a market decline, active intervention has become part of government policy. There is now an active effort to reflate the financial markets.
What Washington and Wall Street don’t want to see is a stock market crash. A stock market crash would be the final blow to the economy. Since last summer at every sign of a severe drawdown in the financial market, direct intervention is brought to bear on the markets. You can see this from the charts on the right, which show the markets downward trend and then the consolidation channel since last summer. The markets have been confined to a narrow trading channel as seen in the yellow boxes at the far right of the graph. All three major markets have been contained within this narrow trading range.»
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