Antes de ir de férias amanhã ainda tenho tempo para vos deixar este post
Um abraço a todos!
Nasdaq Commentary
The Nasdaq Composite gave us a lot of sound and fury this week, but ended up being
range-bound between 1478 and 1536. Had it not been for Monday, the top end of that
range would have been 1514.
What can we interpret based on this week? Not much really. We sold off, then
partially recovered, and closed the week out just marginally above the 10-day
exponential moving average (EMA) line. This is a key level, and getting above it is a
good sign. However, that sign is tainted by the fact that we only pushed above the
10-day line on the lightest volume for the week. In fact, it looked as if a lot of
traders got an early start to their holiday right after Monday's pain - each day's
volume was consecutively less than the prior day. By Friday, there were so few
players, any type of price movement would have meant very little.
But the weekly charts are a little more helpful in our market analysis, although what
they're saying is not encouraging if you were hoping for the bull trend to recover.
We opened the week at our high, and ended up closing the week not only at a loss, but
also under last week's low of 1512.72. While that was only two points under the low
(we closed this week at 1510.09), it was enough to indicate that all they buyers who
were so bullish over the last six weeks didn't rush in to by more shares this time
around.
For what it's worth we'll stick with our weekly-adjusted MACD and stochastic charts,
although they are essentially at odds with each other at this time. The MACD lines
pointed higher and above the zero line is a bullish combination, and the cross-under
of the stochastic lines while above 80 is a set up for a sell signal. The mixed
signals are consistent with an undecided market.
In the last Weekly Market Outlook we stated that this past week would be a pivotal
moment for stocks, as they would push past resistance or crumble beneath it. Well,
'crumble' would be an over-statement, but we certainly didn't break through the
problem level of 1550 that had been such strong resistance two weeks ago. All in all
though, the charts are bearish. Support is at 1478, with resistance still at 1550.
Weekly Chart of the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX)
S&P 500 (SPX) Commentary
We'll be using a daily chart of the S&P 500 to illustrate this past week's intra-week
dynamics, although they are ultimately as mixed as the Nasdaq's. Like the Nasdaq, we
were able to work our way up above the 10-day and 20-day EMA lines, both of which are
now pointing upward again. And in the case of the S&P 500, we closed towards the top
end of the price bar for the week. This suggests that the buying pressure may
slightly outweigh the selling pressure at this point (had the week closed at the
lower end of last week's range, that would be interpreted as bearish). Beyond that,
the bullish DMIplus line is still above the bearish DMIminus line. These things are
all technically bullish, but read on for the counter-points?.
The momentum line just fell under the important zero level, which is typically a sell
signal. We'd prefer have a couple of days of confirmation to see that it stays under
zero. And the Directional Movement (DMI) lines? Yes, they're technically bullish, but
they are also toying with the idea of a bearish crossover. In fact we saw a bearish
crossover on Tuesday, but managed to reverse it by Thursday. With the convergence of
these two lines and their inability to separate again, it wouldn't take much to get
that bearish crossover to 'stick'. And we still haven't breached that tough
resistance we say two weeks ago at the 948 level.
All in all, we're bearish on the S&P 500 until we can break above 948, so even some
gains next week wouldn't be a buy signal. Support is at 920 and 913.
Daily Chart of the S&P 500
The Bottom Line
The key levels to watch here are the resistance levels, or the highs from two weeks
ago. Until we get above there, there's no reason to be bullish. This means that we
can still move higher this coming week and it wouldn't mean much. For the Nasdaq, the
key level is 1550, and the S&P 500 resistance line is set at 948. Support lines are
also going to be important, so keep an eye out for breaks back under the 10 and
20-day moving average lines. There's a pretty busy week ahead for economic data,
although most everything is on shut down for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Have a Great Memorial Day Weekend!
Price Headley, CFA, President
With, James Brumley, Research Analyst
Se não receio o erro é porque estou sempre pronto a corrigi-lo
There's no bull side and no bear side. JUST THE RIGHT SIDE!
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