Autor: D1as
Data: 11-11-2003 10:14
O que eu li é o q deixo aki. Tah no caldeirao, colocado pelo Ulisses, tirado do Realmoney. Sao dois posts.
"Fearing the Fed"
By James J. Cramer
11/10/2003 03:31 PM EST
"Feels yucky, doesn't it? Some of that is redemptions from mutual funds. But most of it is that silent killer, the Fed.
How bad is it? There is a growing consensus -- a wrong one I think -- that says the Fed will act this month after it sees the consumer price index and this Friday's producer price index.
I think this is unfounded. But you need to know why this market isn't taking any solace in the last few pieces of good news and doesn't even want the semis today -- they sell off if there are aggressive tightenings, too.
I am not worried about anything happening that soon. Here's what I am worried about: my usual three-tightenings-and-I-am-out-of-here rap. I don't know if it will work this time because rates are so low. I don't know if the Fed recognizes that and says, "You know what, let's raise big, 50-basis-point increments."
I am a three-and-out guy because usually by the time the Fed has raised three times, the major move is over. Sure, we could have the wild Nazz action that you got in 1999 after the tightenings, but I am not going into that cauldron.
Anyway, no matter what, the first tightening, whenever it is, doesn't stop the bull. So those selling now who expect a tightening and don't get it will come back.
In the meantime, though, at least understand why they are selling.
It ain't the earnings."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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Cramer continua a insistir na sua teoria que na terceira vez que a FED subir as taxas, será hora de sair dos mercados.
"When the Fed Tightens, Watch Out for Selling"
By James J. Cramer
11/11/2003 11:12 AM EST
"Two hundred basis points? Three hundred basis points? Only 150 basis points?
Does it matter?
You bet it does.
Last night on "Kudlow & Cramer," Larry Kudlow said that the president and his advisers are willing to live with a 150 basis point increase in interest rates over the course of the next year.
But, I asked, is Fidelity? And what if the Federal Reserve tightens even more? The sellers of stocks determine whether the Fed is tightening too aggressively, and they will sell stocks hand over fist if the Fed gets vigilant. We have had too big a year to not have it happen.
Once the Fed starts tightening, you have to say that the easy money has been made. If the Fed tightens aggressively, the mutual fund playbook says to sell, and you won't make any money. For some, 150 basis points might be aggressive.
Can it be that binary? Will we really have to leave the table if there is an increase of 200 basis points or more, despite how low rates are now? How about all of those earnings? How about all of those takeovers? How about the liquidity?
When the Fed tightens, almost none of that matters. It becomes a big odds game, and the odds favor the bears.
Yes, when the Fed gets vigilant, this really is a binary game. And if the Fed raises quickly, we will have to sell quickly.
Of course, people can come up with tons of periods where that wasn't the case, where the market kept going up, where things stayed rosy longer than expected.
But for me, it's like cards. It is possible to hit and draw a three when you have 18.
But it's more likely that you'll bust.
So vigilance and the desire not to change tunes just because "it still looks great out there" will determine how much money is made, or lost, once the Fed starts the process. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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