Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 8.2 percent.
The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, equipment and software, inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE, an acceleration in imports, and decelerations in equipment and software and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by an acceleration in exports and an upturn in inventory investment.
Final sales of computers contributed 0.25 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after contributing 0.65 percentage point to the third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 6.9 percent in the third. Durable goods purchases increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 28.0 percent. PCE purchases of motor vehicles decreased in the fourth quarter after increasing in the third. The fourth-quarter downturn was partly offset by an upturn in motor vehicle inventory investment. PCE nondurable goods increased 4.4 percent, compared with an increase of 7.3 percent. Services expenditures increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 12.8 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 3.0 percent, compared with a
decrease of 1.8 percent. Equipment and software increased 10.0 percent, compared with an increase of 17.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 10.6 percent, compared with an increase of
21.9 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 19.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 9.9 percent in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 11.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third. National defense increased 1.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.3 percent. Nondefense decreased 1.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.5 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.
The real change in private inventories added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 0.13 percentage point from the third-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter, following decreases of $9.1 billion in the third quarter and $4.5 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8.3 percent in the third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $70.1 billion (3.1 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $96.6 billion (4.3 percent) in the third. Personal current taxes increased $68.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $64.2 billion. The upturn in taxes primarily reflected the drop-
off in advance payments of the child tax credit sent to taxpayers in the third quarter as part of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.
Disposable personal income increased $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $160.8 billion in the third. Real disposable personal income decreased 0.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.3 percent.
Personal outlays increased $62.7 billion (3.1 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $161.8 billion (8.4 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $127.2 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $188.1 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income --decreased from 2.3 percent in the third quarter to 1.5 percent in the fourth.
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