On Monday, the Democratic National Convention in Boston begins. Sens. Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina will likely be nominated as presidential and vice-presidential candidates, respectively. Wall Street generally believes Republicans are more business-friendly and may be unhappy if Kerry gets a post-convention bounce in the polls -- though stocks have historically performed better under Democrats.
Monday morning, the National Association of Realtors reports on sales of pre-owned homes -- the biggest part of the housing market -- in June. Economists, on average, believe sales slowed to an annualized rate of 6.67 million units from a 6.8-million-unit pace in May, according to Briefing.com.
Monday afternoon, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig is scheduled to speak in Denver about monetary policy. Hoenig is a voting member of the Fed's policy-making committee.
Tuesday morning, the Conference Board, a private research firm for business interests, releases its closely watched survey of consumer confidence in July. Economists, on average, believe confidence rose to 102 from 101.9 in June.
Also Tuesday morning, the Census Bureau releases its figures for new home sales in June. Economists believe sales fell to an annualized rate of 1.275 million units from 1.369 million units in May.
Wednesday morning, the Commerce Department reports on orders for durable manufactured goods in June. Part of this report, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, is seen as a proxy for business spending. Economists think orders rose 1.5 percent after falling 1.6 percent in May.
Thursday morning, the Labor Department releases its weekly report of new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended July 23. Claims dropped to 339,000 in the prior week and have been bouncing around a lot, likely affected by auto-plant closings and other seasonal factors.
Also Thursday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Employment Cost Index for the second quarter. This measure of labor costs usually gets little attention on Wall Street, but it will likely be watched closely for signs of inflation. Economists expect the ECI to rise 0.9 percent after rising 1.1 percent in the first quarter.
Later Thursday morning, the Conference Board will release its Help Wanted Index, which measures newspaper help-wanted ads, for June. Economists believe the index rose to 40 from 39 in May.
Friday morning, the Commerce Department releases its first (of many) estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of the economy. Economists believe it slowed to a 3.7 percent annual rate in the quarter from 3.9 percent in the first quarter.
Later Friday morning, the University of Michigan will release its revised reading of consumer sentiment in July. Economists expect the measure to rise to 96.2 from an initial reading of 96.
Also Friday morning, the NAPM-Chicago will release its index of business activity in the Chicago region in July. Economists expect the index to rise to 60 from 56.4 in June.
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