China predicts 9.3% growth rate
China's State Information Center predicts China's gross domestic product will grow by 9.3 percent for all of this year.
The center says China's overall economy runs from overheating to normal status. It predicts the increase of fixed asset investment this year will be slower than last year. China's investment in fixed assets during the nine months was up 27.7 percent year-on-year, representing a drop of 15.3 percentage points over the growth rate for first quarter, and a decrease of 0.9 percentage points over the first half of the year. It says trade surplus will decrease from last year's 25.4 billion US dollars to this year's 4.4 billion US dollars.
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CPI expected to slide down below 5 percent in the rest of the year
¡¡¡¡Su Ning, Vice Governor of China's central bank, made his prediction that China's consumer price index (CPI) would rise some 4.8 percent, 4.3 percent and 4.2 percent year-on-year in October, November and December respectively.
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Industrial slow-down "healthy"
Growth in China's industrial output slowed slightly to 15.7 per cent in October, due to high base figures in the fourth quarter of last year as well as the government's macro-control measures to cool the economy.
For the first 10 months, industrial output rose a year-on-year 16.9 per cent to 4.37 trillion yuan (US$527.6 billion), the bureau said.
Zhu Jianfang, a senior analyst with Beijing-based China Securities, said October's growth was healthy. "It was beneficial for the country's economy to achieve a soft landing," he said.
The growth rate will continue to decline in November and December, he said.
China's industrial output began to slow after peaking at 23.2 per cent in February, due to a raft of government measures including raising bank reserve requirements three times and curbing unwanted fixed asset investment projects.
The industrial output slowed 0.7 percentage point in July compared to June and dropped 1.3 percentage points in June compared to May. The pace of industrial output picked up in September, raising concerns that the cooling measures might lose their effect. In a latest move to cool the economy, the People's Bank of China, raised benchmark interest rates for the first time in nine years.
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World Bank: China's 2004 economy expected to grow by 9.25%
China's economy is to expand by 9.25 percent this year, and it will slow down to around 8 percent in 2005, the World Bank said Tuesday in its latest East Asia and Pacific Regional Update.
Economic growth is expected to top 7 percent for East Asia and Pacific (excluding Japan), while developing economies in the region are expected to grow by more than 8 percent, according to the report.
In its China part of the report, the World Bank said if the Chinese economy lands at all, it is likely to be a soft landing this time around.
The bank praised China's October 28 move to raise its interest rates, saying it serves as a signal that the authorities would be ready to use the interest rate instrument following administrative measures that seemed targeted at limiting investments in overheated sectors.
According to the report, exports from the region should turn in their strongest performance since 1988, supported by demand from China, the global recovery, a rebound in the global high-tech industry, and strong commodity prices. Investment has also recovered, contributing half of aggregate demand growth.
The strong performance has lifted 40 million East Asians out of poverty, mostly in China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam this year, the report said.
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