Fez ontem uma semana que começou a Guerra no Iraque.
Deixo aqui um artigo que faz uma análise aos acontecimentos desta 1ª semana de guerra. Dá-nos uma visão diferente daquilo que nos é dito e mostrado pelas televisões ocidentais (sobretudo americanas).
Vale sempre a pena ouvir / ler outros pontos de vista.
O artigo é de uma fonte russa cujo País, como é sabido, tem uma posição contrária à dos EUA no que respeita a esta intervenção militar.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------War in Iraq: First Week Analysis (21st – 27th of March)
28.03.2003 [14:42]
Strategic situation
During the first days of the war Coalition forces were able to gain ground quickly because they were mostlya dvancing in huge armored formations throught the mostly uninhabited desert of the south-western Iraq. The first real resistance was met at Umm Qasr and Basra, where Coalition troops were tied into a series of small engagements, thus slowing down their advance. During the first days it also became clear that Iraqi army was not going to surrender easily and the Iraqi people would not necessarily welcome the invaders. The concept of a three-day long march to liberate the people of Iraq was shattered.
During the following days the coalition forces were tied down in various fronts at the banks of Eufrat. It seems likely that the Coalition wants to capture all major crossing points of Eufrat and secure all large cities at the western bank of Eufrat before moving on to Baghdad. Battle in Nasiriya has so far been the fiercest and it is showing no sings of being over anytime soon. United States Marine Corps managed to capture the bridges in Nasiriya and the road over Eufrat is open, but so far no real advances has been made towards Baghdad.
Various reports indicate that the supply routes of the coalition forces are getting very long and becoming vulnerable to attacks by Iraqi Special Froces and various guerrilla units. The capturing of a column from 507th logistics company was probably not the last attack of this kind. The 3rd division and the marine corps have so far been in the thick of the fighting for seven days and are probably running very low on ammo, fuel and enthusiasm. New divisions are most probably brought forward to give 3rd and USMC time to rest and resupply. Most probably 101st Air-Assault? Division and 1st Armored Divison will take the main responsibilty of the attack on Karbala.
The 173st Airborne Regiment was dropped into Kurdistan and has started to receive material and supply. More men from the 82nd Airborne Division are probably on their way to Kurdistan. These troops are digging into positions and trying to recruit various kurd factions into the battle against Saddam. There will probably be no large attacks on the northern front anytime soon, since the heavier weapons and the combat vehicles for the american troops are still outside Iraq.
It is doubtlful if the coalition leaders Bush and Blair have been led to believe that the Iraqi Regime would collapse during the first days of the attack or if this impression was just a fabrication of the international media. So far the resistance offered by the Iraqi and the difficulties faced by the coalition advance have been nothing out of ordinary. Various military analyses made before the wa have shown that there is a very real risk of events unfolding the way they so far have.
Tactics used so far
So far the coalition forces have been playing very safe. They have shown remarcable unwillingness to commit theselves into conventional infantry fighting. Every pocket of resistance is scouted and the bombed into submission with artillery, direct fire from combat vehicles and massive use of high tech air-to-surface ordnance. Meanwhile the Iraqi troops have been very passive and unable to concentrate their artillery and tanks for major counterstrikes against the coalition forces. This has led to the battlefield being scattered into various small-scale engagements, which the coalition forces will eventually win because of better training, larger firpower and better organized logistics.
The massive use of smart weapons by coalition airforces will eventually lead into a situation where the stockpiles of these weapons will run out. Thus in the future days of the war the emphasis of the airstrikes will shift strongly into the use of conventional rockets, bombs and cluster bombs. This will probably have two results. More casualties will be inflicted on the civilian population because of the use of conventional air-to-surface ordnance. More coalition aircraft will also be lost, since conventional rockets and bombs are fired from within the reach of Iraqi air-defence which is still far from being destroyed.
Iraqi Special Forces and fedayeen-fighters have already staged various attacks on the advancing forces. Some of the time these attacks have been initiated in civilian clothes. This will eventually lead to the use of fire against civilian targets mistaken for guerrillas by coalition forces. Already the coalition troops have stopped civilian vehicles, conducted extensive home searches in the rear area and imprisoned a huge number of civilians suspecetd of being fedayeen fighter in disguise.
Casualties
As of 28th of march the coalition forces have admitted that 48 men have been killed and at least 20 missing. These number have not included the 4 Kuwaitian soldiers and the 3 brittish reporters. Most probably these figures are lower than the truth, since the US troops have a policy of not disclosing their real deathcount until after the death has been confirmed and the relatives of the fallen troopers have been notified. This means that the true bodycount of the US troops is probably at least 40, bringing the total of coalition killed (Kuwaitis and reporters included) into at least 70. If this number seems low one must understand that at least ten times as much soldiers have been wounded in action. The coalition medivac and surgical hospitals are working so effectively that most of the seriously wounded trooper, that would have perished otherwise, are being saved. The real reason why coalition forces have been unwilling to disclose the number of wounded and missing troopers is that the numbers are large enough to cause a public uproar in Washington and London. A close up analysis on the coalition medevac capability and the results of former coflicts indicate that the true count of coalition wounded might be as large as 700 men.
There is no reliable way of estimating Iraqi casualties. Reports so far range from 150 soldiers and 200 civilians to more than 1500 soldiers and 1000 civilians killed. Iraqi Regime has no ability to keep real-time count of killed soldiers and civilians and they have no interest in disclosing troop casualties to public. The number of wounded is, in any case, at least four times as much as the number of killed. According to US sources 4000 Iraqi soldiers have been taken prisoner. The number itself might be correct but in most cases the prisoners are civilians who were found with guns in their vehicles or houses during the searches. The true number of iraqi soldiers taken captive is probably only half of this.
The coalition troops have lost dozens of armored vehicles, at least two helicopters and at least one aircraft during the war, but admit losing none. According to a well-known US policy the true number of lost aircrafts, helicopters and tanks will probably never be disclosed to public.
Disinformation
Information warfare is going on strong and both sides of the fight are giving outrageous claims that can be proven false. The most worrying feature of this war is that even large international mediagroups are subject to US control. For example CNN has already published countless stories based only on claims made by US Department of Defence. So far at least the following claims made by the US Department of Defence can be proved to be false:
- Saddam is dead (21st of March)
- 51st Iraqi Division has surrendered (22nd of March; the division was still fighting in Basra on 26th of march)
- Umm Qasr is captured (22nd of March; Umm Qasr port was secured during the 25th and fighting was still going on)
- Basra has been taken (23rd of March; later on DoD has admitted that they have never even entered Basra)
- Nasiriya has fallen (24th of March; on 28th the fight is still on)
- The Iraqi armored column leaving Basra has been completely destroyed (27th of March; on 28th only 14 tanks of the 120 vehicle column were destroyed)
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