S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Despite a tremendous plunge in payrolls and consumer confidence, first quarter GDP is expected to have shown growth near 2.5%.
The surge in March consumer spending (2.1% retail sales) provided a welcome boost to PCE as gains in residential investment, government spending (watch defense) and even net exports provide added support.
The only drag among the broad components is business investment but as with all the components the advance GDP levels are 2/3 fact and 1/3 estimate (March still unknown). Moderate growth during the worst of the pre-war anxiety is reassuring. Stronger, sustained growth is needed to put the economy back on its feet and strengthen the weak labor market.
US Q1 BUSINESS INVESTMENT DOWN 4.2%
US Q1 GDP UP 1.6% VS. 2.1% EXPECTED, 1.4% IN Q4
US Q1 DEFENSE SPENDING FALLS 1ST TIME IN 10 QUARTERS
US Q1 CORE PCE INFLATION INDEX UP 0.9%
US Q1 FINAL DOMESTIC SALES UP 0.7%, LEAST IN 6 QUARTERS
US Q1 CONSUMER SPENDING UP 1.4%, SLOWEST IN 7 QUARTERS
The U.S. economy struggled through the first quarter of the year, growing at a 1.6 percent real annual rate after growing 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were looking for slightly stronger growth of 2.1 percent.
Domestic purchases rose just 0.7 percent. Business investment declined 4.2 percent after an increase in the prior quarter. Consumer spending increased 1.4 percent, mostly on purchases of non-durable goods. Government spending and imports slowed. Final sales of domestic goods increased 2.1 percent. Inflation outside of energy was tame, with the core personal consumption expenditure index rising 0.9 percent
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