is um excerto do update de ontem by www.investmenthouse.com, em k aborda o sentimento do mercado :
Market Sentiment
Volatility continues to decline and we still have several questions about
how the market can rally even as volatility falls and remains at levels
considered in the low end of the 'normal' scale. Volatility is a
secondary indicator. By that we mean it is based on intangibles such as
investors fear or greed. Those are inherently difficult to quantify in
the continuing shifting sands of investor sentiment. What might be a
significant level during a bull market could be less significant in a bear
market or even at different times in the same bear market. We do not
ignore it or any sentiment indicator when it reaches extreme readings, but
we also know that it can continue at low or high levels for long stretches
with no impact on market action. The same can be said for other sentiment
indicators as well as more technical indicators such as stochastics or
MACD. After reaching critical levels they can run laterally at that level
for months or even make the prescribed turn but have no impact on the
stock or the market.
It is always key to keep abreast of the sentiment indicators but not let
them control your investment decisions. They are warning flags that make
you look hard at the primary indicators such as price/volume action,
patterns, and leadership. Keeping them in mind and reviewing them also
keeps you honest with what you are looking at in the primary indicators:
are you glossing over rising problems in leadership breakdown that the low
VIX might have been warning about? Thus keep them in the analysis, but do
not use them to time your investments because the WHEN is the key. They
are not good timing instruments, just confirmations of what the primary
indicators are showing you or are alerts to be on the ready in case
something starts to break apart.
Finally, the current level is not historically the lowest volatility has
been even as the market continued to surge. Two weeks back we discussed
listed other times when volatility was lower but the market still rallied
well past those times when volatility had already hit was would be
considered low. Again, the timing issue comes into play.
VIX: 21.42; -0.62
VXN: 32.58; +0.49
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.76; -0.06
xi
OSanto
"a vida eh aquilo que acontece...enquanto nos fazemos planos"
O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação
aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação
de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.
