Right back up to that 1550 level that marks the bottom of near term
resistance running from 1550 to 1560, and then 1570 to 1578 (the June 2002
closing low, May 2002 high). Nasdaq has run 200 points from the April
test of the 50 day MVA, a 14.8% move. 1350 also marks the 200 day MVA,
and thus it is 15% above its 200 day. Historically Nasdaq starts to
struggle when it is 15% over its 200 day MVA. Voila. It is starting to
show signs of struggling now that it has reached that level. At 20% is
usually starts to correct. That would put it at 1600 or so. There is a
down trendline from May 2001/January 2002 intraday highs around 1585 as
well. If Nasdaq gives another spurt higher to those levels and starts to
stall, it will be a clear sign to remove more money from the table.
The latter would put SP500 almost 10% over its 200 day MVA,
a point where historically the large cap index starts to struggle. As
with Nasdaq, if it gives a quick spurt up to that level on this renewed
upside volume, that would be a point of caution. With Nasdaq leading the
way higher, however, we need to focus on its resistance as well as it will
influence what the large cap index does. As of yet, SP500 has not been
able to clear out over 950.
xi
OSanto
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