Muito boa tarde!
Cá continuamos entretidos a explorar o (des) conhecimento (desta vez enveredámos pelo Tempo e seus ciclos!):
Cycles
Cycles are all around us in nature. We have the rotation of the earth around the sun. The rotation of the earth on its axis. The rotation of the moon around the earth. These three events alone account for many more cycles which occur here on earth; summer and winter, night and day, the tides.
The cycle phenomenon seems to trickle down into every day life and the life of every living thing upon the earth from the smallest and simplest organism to the more complicated plants to us humans. With the fact that we are constantly bombarded with adjusting to these cycles, it is only natural that we too would help to propagate some and even cause some of them to occur.
The primary cycles which humans determine are the cycles which are brought about by our knowledge and emotions. One of the ways humans show their emotions is through their greed and fear in investing. Emotions play a very large role in the markets and most investments. Because of the human element, cycles have become a part of the markets and stocks as human emotions play out over the course of time.
The stock markets are nothing more than the interplay of millions of humans which is reflected in the prices of all the stock issues as well as the markets. Some people are afraid and want to sell while others have the greed factor and want to buy. All these are mixed together to determine the prices of the issues. Because of these human emotions, the prices fluctuate and gyrate between overbought to oversold. These gyrations lead to cycles which are usually somewhat predictable and measurable.
In the financial markets there are many widely know cycles which have been at work for many years. The presidential cycle is one of the prominent cycles discovered. While this cycle may be due to monetary influences of the election process, it is still a factor to consider with your very long term outlook and planning.
The 28 day cycle, which is in calendar days and is actually a 20 trading day cycle was discovered and can very often be recognized in stock prices and behavior. The longest cycle I am aware of which influences the market is the Kondratieff Wave. This cycle influences prices in a 54 year cycle.
Cycles and how to find them
The way to locate the more predominate cycles is through the use of Fourier Transform. This was originally used, and may
still be, as a way to measure vibrations in engineering endeavors and applications. It has been adapted to stock analysis to help show which length cycles are the more predominate.
Using Fourier Transform I have analyzed the Dow Jones Industrial Average and as of today, 12/18/99, the predominate cycles prevalent are the 205 day, 510 day and the 89 day cycles, in that order. The 205 day cycle is the strongest and has been in place the longest while the 89 day is the weakest of the three.
If you look at a chart of the Fourier Transform, it shows the most predominate cycle on the left of the chart and the weakest identified cycle on the right of the chart. The cycle on the left has been an influence for the longest time period of time. The time period of the cycle on the right has been an influence for the shortest period of time
I want to make a note here that cycles are measured from top to top and bottom to bottom for a complete cycle. They are
not measured top to bottom or bottom to top. These would only be one half of the cycle.
Fibonacci Time Series
The Fibonacci time series is a method of timing the underlying stock or market by time; not by price. It is constructed with a low and a high being recognized by the analyst and then applying the Fibonacci numerical intervals of 1, 2, 3, 5, 13, 21, 55, 89, 144, etc.
The Fibonacci times series lines are drawn as vertically lines when displayed on a computer screen chart. The idea, in using this method, is you are looking for changes in price direction for the underlying at or near the time series lines.
If you have the bottom and the top correctly labeled these will quite often help you anticipate WHEN the security may reverse direction and resume the primary move. The Fibonacci time series lines tell you nothing concerning prices.
Análises anteriores:
Os factos mostram que ... lá que sobe, sobe!
Essa é que é essa (9,5%)! Um facto indesmentível há 3 meses... e daqui a pouco há 6 meses ;-)
(ehehe... o Dax anda a fintar a malta toda! O maroto só fez mínimos absolutos em Março... enquanto os americanos já vão todos lampeiros por ali acima. Como diriam os experts: "mostra fraqueza relativa"!)
O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação
aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação
de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.
