FX News Background: (June 25, 2003 European Trading 1040 EST, 0440 CET)
Euro/US Dollar - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
EUR/USD - (1.1510) 08:53 CET -
Recommendations:
Stand by.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
USD/JPY - (117.64) 08:54 CET - USD/JPY has bounce back to just under 118.07 so farand loks to be holding up. There is no change to the negative short-term outlook. Resistance should hold, and the unit should continue to fall thereafter. The next support may appear at 117.20 -- so expect the unit to turn even lower later in the week. The next break of support, now at 117.20, should bring in 116.20 once again further out. We still believe that a fall to 115.00 is still in the pipeline in the slightlly longer-term.
Recommendations:
Hold short position (118.10). Move stoploss from 118.30 to 117.90. Trading objective: 116.00.
US Dollar/Swiss Franc - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
USD/CHF - (1.3295) 08:56 CET - USD/CHF been to as low as 1.3210, but bounced back to 1.3330. It is still difficult to ascertain whether or not we will get another upside follow-through to 1.3420 area, despite the rally. For the downside, we want to see if the recent decline extends to 1.3200 or lower after breaking the minor 1.3240 swing point. A break to the downside obviously eases the uptrend's momentum. But wherever the short term terminus will eventually occur, the longer-term negative view should eventually reassert. Longer-term, the 1.25 - 1.24 targets should come into focus again.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
British Pound/US Dollar - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
GBP/USD - (1.6634) 08:57 CET - - GBP/USD failed the test of the 1.6700 designated resistance. The unit fell to just under 1.6600 but has boucne back some. The 1.6700 resistance will continue to act as gateway for further upside progress - a succesful attack at the level may lay the groundwork for a new upcylce. Conversely, failure of another 1.6700 test suggest futher downside scope to 1.6550. At this point, we can't say which view one will prevail. Nonetheless, we are still convinced that the GBP/USD bull phase may not be over yet. If there is still some scope to the downside, then there is no urgency to go long at this time, and we would rather wait for better and lower levels to make another foray into the long side of the currency, looking still for 1.7000 then 1.7370 further out.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
Australian Dollar/US Dollar - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
AUD/USD - .6635 (08:58 CET) - AUD/USD fell through to the .6617 low but should recover back to .6660 area later in the day, perhaps even a test of the .6680 swing point. We await for more data. The recent downmove has been tame relative to the magnitude of declines we saw in other major currencies. The longer-term scenario is unchanged -- a move to the .6740 top should come soon. A break of the .6740 top is still the ultimate confirmation that the uptrend has resumed. The rally should accelerate after a break, and .6850 remains the immediate objective in the very near-term. Further out, we are now factoring-in .7000 as target.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
NZ Dollar/US Dollar - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
NZD/USD - (0.5829) 09:00 CET - NZD/USD currency failed another test of the .5880 resistance and came down hard, well below the .5840 hypothetical support. The downturn may find support at .5820, and will finetune upside possibilities from there. The risk is further decline to .5800 area. Nonetheless, we believe still that the uptrend is still set to resume further. The next upside target is still the top at .5890. Further out, the rally may bring the unit to .6050 - .6100 targets again.
Recommendations:
Buy at .5810. Initial stoploss: .5755. Trading objective: .6100.
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
USD/CAD - (1.3566) 09:05 CET - USD/CAD fell from the 1.3638 minor top and has been to 1.3560 so far, but it remains to be seen is this retreat is for real. The risk is still a further upmove to 1.3800 area, so there is no hurry to set-up short positions just yet. We will wait for more data so we can fine-tune tactics here. If there is a good chance of further appreciation in the unit, then we will wait for higher levels like 1.3800 to set up short positions. We still expect further declines to 1.3000 further out.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
Euro/Japanese Yen - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
EUR/JPY - (135.37) 09:07 CET - EUR/JPY has been to as low as 135.28 again but may bounce back again. It may rallyback to 136.30/40 area, but it is too early to say whether or not the uptrend can be sustained. Nonetheless, we expect the main bullish scenario to keep at some point nonetheless, and we will maintain 140.20 as immediate target, and 145.00 the destination further out.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
Euro/Swiss Franc - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
EUR/CHF - (1.5300) 09:10 CET - The cross went to as low as 1.5276 but may recover towards the 1.5340 area . However, the sell-off may extend to 1.5260/50 area thereafter. Nonetheless, the longer-term scenario still favors the upside. The swing level now adjusts to 1.5420. A move to 1.5850 is the objective further out.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
Euro/British Pound - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
EUR/GBP - (.6924) 07:49 CET - the cross fell to as low as .6908 and may be susceptible to another dip to .6900 - .6890. A base should form there, and we could see a test of the .7000 resistance thereafter.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
British Pound/Japanese Yen - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
GBP/JPY - (196.60) 09:12 CET - the cross fell again and retested the low at 195.40; a subsequent bounce may make a recovery to 197.00 area. But allow for further declines to 194.70 - 194.40 thereafter. However, the bullish bias remains and a new rally may develop into another test of the 200.00 resistance from there on. The target is the area of 205.00 and 207.00 further out.
Recommendations:
Stand by.
British Pound/Swiss Franc - June 25
Wednesday, June 25, 2003
GBP/CHF - (2.2125) 09:15 CET - the cross remain sideways bound -- no change in view or price. the cross recovers after falling sharply from 2.2366 high to 2.2000, which now becomes the next support. The cross may be targetting the area of 2.2500 short-term. We raise target to 2.2800 further out.
Recommendations:
Hold long position (2.2127). Initial stoploss: 2.1900. Trading objective: 2.2800.
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