"I read yesterday that the American Association of Individual Investors shows bulls at 71% and bears at 8%. That's off-the-charts. Sure, the market can go up for all these bulls -- for a while anyway -- but that's not the way markets ultimately work. Money flows from the majority to the minority. It has to. There is no other way for markets to function. Fresh liquidity can fuel aberrant market behavior, but that's a finite effect, as we find out at the end of the bubble.
I am seeing a lot of historical and technical comparisons right now to what happened in the late 90s bull market, as a way to justify what potentially can happen now on the upside. But it's essential to remember how that was an unprecedented equity bubble. (Yet with the Fed so aggressively trying to inflate asset markets now, in a sense there is a valid "bubble" comparison to the late 90s.) I think the right way to compare the action now to the action in the late stages of the bubble is to turn the chart upside down , and think of the current market as a mirror image of the bull."
Na mho se não fosse o FED isto já se tinha partido tudo, ou ia partir-se a partir de agora, caso fosse apenas agora o inicio das quedas seria de um modo dramático, mas o FED aguentou isto até aqui não sei se vai conseguir aguentar muito mais tempo .... mas como diz o David :"Fresh liquidity can fuel aberrant market behavior, but that's a finite effect"
um abraço
P.S. - No entanto uma coisa é certa no médio/longo prazo os erros do presente são sempre corrigidos pelos mercados.
"The point at which a competitor is pursuing the best possible strategy, given the strategies of the other participants" - John F. Nash
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