Autor: Davos
Data: 29-06-2003 08:10
Aqui vai uma explicação:
Large commercial hedgers have turned bearish on stocks.
The Commitments of Traders Report out Friday afternoon showed that these insiders, who went short the stock market in early 2000 and who stayed short right into March of this year, have again initiated large net short positions in the S&P 500 Index. This is the smart money, the ones you don't want to go contrary to. On the chart linked above, page down to the chart labeled, "COT - S&P 500" and look at the yellow line. That's the net position of the commercial hedgers and it has taken a big dive into negative territory. Then, continue paging down and see "COT - NASDAQ 100" and you'll see an even more eye-opening chart: the smart money is now more bearish on NASDAQ than they were in 2001, just as that market was early days into its 80%+ plunge!
The other line to look at is one you should go contrary to: that's the cyan line, which represents the small traders. That line has taken a leap skyward. You'll notice that the small traders were net long the market during this entire bear market — and wrong. Now that they've bought into this bear market, it's time for it to go down again.
Boas tardes,
Davos
|
|
