Definition: The composite leading indicator is a times series, formed by aggregating a variety of component indicators which show a reasonably consistent relationship with a reference series at the turning points. The OECD CLI is designed to provide qualitative information on short-term economic movements, especially at the turning points, rather than quantitative measures. Therefore, the main message of CLI movements over time is the increase or decrease, rather than the amplitude of the changes. A detailed information on the OECD methodology for CLIs can be found on the OECD website at http://www.oecd.org/std/cli.
Coverage: The CLI comprises a set of component series selected from a wide range of key short-term economic indicators. The following component series are used in the compilation: Production: Future Tendency Industrial production index: electricity, gas and water Unfilled job vacancies Order books: level Share prices: Lisbon Stock Exchange Export order books: level.
Calculation: The CLIs are compiled using a modified version of the method developed by the US National Bureau of Economic Research: CLIs are compiled by combining detrended component series in either their seasonally adjusted or raw form. The component series are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behaviour; data quality; timeliness and availability, etc.
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
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