Look for any early attempts to push higher to get hit with more selling
ESZ03 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, September 12, 2003
Prev Day - SP
Range: 9.20 Value Area
Range: 3.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,019.90
1,019.75-1,018.75 Sell Pivot
1,019.20 Pit Bull MA
1,016.40
Close 1,015.20
Open 1,013.50
1,013.00
1,010.75-1,011.75 Buy Pivot
Low 1,010.70
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today on Friday's Morning Call
On Thursday we offered no Headline Call which is our practice on Rollover day when the new December S&P500 futures contract becomes the front month. We had suggested a bias for a slight move higher on Thursday and that was what we got.
There was a clear B/D with a neutral looking High Five and I know from the emails that some of you grabbed that trade at the B/D which is great. It actually turned out to be a nice trade that rallied up to +8 points if you got in just under the B/D.
Rollover went pretty quietly overall as there was nice movement with good backing and filling of prices but without much range. Remember, if the average 10 day range is under 15 points be prepared to scalp 5-8 points out of these TCF setups. Of course we like to wait for the full 8 points and are committed to that but you have to be realistic when the range average is (currently) 10.70 and grab what you can.
It appears the pressure is going to be on the downside for a little while longer. Here's the synopsis for today.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are expecting an early rise in prices to get hit with more selling. The key will be how far and how fast they move up early. Overall our expectation is that we may get a BreakOut attempt to rally but then the market will get hit with selling sending em back to where they belong for now...on the lower side.
We are looking for a stretch lower to fufill 1004-5 as the first target lower and then 998 as a primary first goal. Now this may not occur today but it should be in the cards pretty soon. For today we will be content to short rallies that are not setting up for a BreakOut Buy with a bullish High Five.
Now if we DO get a BreakOut as the first Hour One pivot and the Dow is not up over 50 but we have the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) moving ahead being up +12-15 or more then we will have to look to be buying the B/O. If we see TRIN backing up this move being at .70 or lower with VIX down especially -.50 or less then we are looking good for a BreakOut Buy.
However, I do not expect this today but rather expect to see the morning rally attempts hit with more selling as they send em down towards the mentioned 1004-5 area. On this section today I am more or less doing the TCF Trade setups to watch for in the body of this briefing.
Because of the Sell Mode we are in with the underlying Market Force indicators for the short term we will want to ALWAYS be prepared each day along the way for the potential of a Bear Ugly day with a hard slam lower. This could come out of the woods with some unexpected news sprung on us which would affect the markets in a big way.
To me that last Barrons Cover appeared to be a temporary lid on the market rise at least for the next few weeks. There were just too many slap happy bulls toasting the new "bull market". Although I have also been talking about certain factors since the Iraq war that could push the market up nicely going into the close of the year there are also some really heavy things getting ready to hit the news anytime that could send things reeling.
The way the world situation is setup right now with the volatile so called leaders and constant changes it just feels like we are always sitting on a powder keg lately. However, there are some very positive developments in the world communities in wanting to work to take charge and clean up the mess and make things positive again.
For now though I want you to be prepared each day to wake up to a Bear Ugly market situation and know how to react. If they hit the BreakDown today as the first pivot they are most likely going to drift lower.
We have hit several of our primary TCF Trade setups this week so you got a good demonstration of how they work. Also you got to see how they can be a little tricky sometimes. That is the nature of our business and I have made as honest and dignified attempt as I can in these briefings to open up the doors to showing you these TCF setups and how you can adapt to them to make money. I never said it was going to be easy or made any phoney promises about the market being a snap to trade. This is a professionals business and I aim to show you the path of the professional S&P500 trader.
So primarily look for the B/O as the first pivot today. Expect to Sell that B/O unless the Dow is lower and the NAZ is strong at the time of the B/O. Then....you know what to do.
STUDY OUR TRADING HANDBOOK AND MEMORIZE THE TCF SETUPS. You will get so good at this you will start to notice things in the market you never saw before using our parameters and outlines of the daily action.
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Value Area: 1,013.00 - 1,016.40
We are closing slightly below this and we are expecting that they will move a bit higher today. If you see this occur and then they fall back into the VA that will be a sign of weakness. If you are short and you see this occur it is a good confirmation to hold short. Always compare the High Five to what the prices are doing and you will get a good road map.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,010.75 - 1,011.75
No trade at this target today. We ALWAYS watch any reaction to these pivots and the -4.25 stop/pivot but no specific buy is recommended today. Let's let the new December contract numbers play out today and next week traders will be fully entrenched in the Dec. contracts.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,019.75 - 1,018.75
We have the Sell Pivot target right at the Pit Bull today and as such it should provide some stong resistance. Let's wait and compare the B/O today with this price area and the correct action to take on the B/O. If the prices hold below the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1024.00 that may be the spot to nail em short.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,019.20
I am expecting this area to be resistance for today as mentioned above. Let's watch the B/O and the B/D combined with the VA to see what the action looks like. It's Friday today and after rolling over to a new contract we want to let things settle in nicely to see where we can get the pure 8 point moves out of. Selling should be the right side of the market today.
Pro Trader's Action
The bottom line is that we are expecting an early bounce that we need to really hone in and determine if it will create a BreakOut buy today or if we need to sell that rally attempt. So far it appears from our Market Force indicators that any rally attempt will get hit with new selling force again. Let's take a look at things when and if we get there and it should be pretty apparent what the proper action is to take.
Good luck today. Stay humourous about all this crazy number crunching and lines wiggling all over the screen so you can be nice and loose to grab those TCF setups. Have a great weekend and I'll look forward to updating you on some more action on Monday. All the best to you and your family who support you in this amazing business, The Fastest Game in Town, trading the S&P500 Futures. Mohan
Se não receio o erro é porque estou sempre pronto a corrigi-lo
There's no bull side and no bear side. JUST THE RIGHT SIDE!
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