Comecei a traduzir este artigo, mas depois pensei nas consequências de uma acusação séria de pelágio... :-) eh.eh.
Mas é um artigo giro para quem defendendo uma grande volatilidade cambial entre usd e eur (e também outras).
Aqui fica
Since the Asian crises of 1997-1998, Asian central banks have significantly increased their FX reserve holdings. This surge stemmed from the governments? belief that large FX reserves will provide the central banks with ammunition to defend against speculators who attack their currency. Also, faced with slowing global economic growth, many Asian central banks have further increased their reserves in the past year to protect against excess appreciation of the currencies, which would decrease the competitiveness of their exports.
Total USD foreign exchange reserves held by the Asian central banks excluding Japan equaled to slightly under US$1 Trillion in 2002, which is a 370% increase from 1993. To put this further into perspective, China?s central bank increased their reserves by US$74 Billion in 2002, which is the equivalent of nearly all of the US?s foreign exchange reserves. Taiwan, has foreign reserves that is half the size of its GDP and total foreign reserves for all Asian central banks last year is more than 50% of the annual imports for most countries. Of this total, nearly 70% of the foreign reserves are held in US Dollars.
What are they doing with this money?
Most Asian countries have large annual trade surpluses, with the US being their primary trading partner. As a result, these central banks are forced to hold large amounts of USD reserves. Their tools for holding USD reserves have primarily been US stocks or bonds. However, with the recent sharp decline in US interest rates, reserve asset managers may start to reconsider their US asset holdings.
What would induce them to shift foreign reserve holdings?
A number of factors would induce reserve asset managers to reduce their USD reserve holdings:
1) Low Yield ? With ample cushions already built up to defend against speculators, return considerations have become more important to foreign asset managers. The low yields offered by US fixed income instruments may induce these managers to start looking for higher yielding bond products in countries such as Australia, who is also one of region?s major trading partners. In addition, typically lower yields translate to higher bond prices, but with decreased demand in US fixed income products, bond prices have increased, but not sufficient enough to compensate for the lower yields.
2) Decline in USD ? Geopolitical uncertainty has taken a significant toll on the USD. In fact in 2002, the USD declined nearly 20% against the Euro and over 12% against the JPY. Asian central banks that have bought USD assets have seen their portfolios suffer from both low returns and depreciation in value. This provides a further incentive for reserve asset managers to invest elsewhere to ensure capital retention and appreciation.
3) Increase Trade with Europe ? The primary reason Asian central banks hold so much USD reserves is because of their significant trading activity with the US. However, trade with Europe has increased significantly in recent years. As a result, Asian central banks may consider mimicking Russia by diversifying their foreign reserves and increasing their holdings of non-dollar reserves. This decision would be reinforced by the fact that the trend rise in the EUR/USD and higher interest rates from the Euro region would generate more attractive returns.
4) Panic - Reserve asset managers are looking for yield and are responsible for reporting returns to their central bank heads. Therefore, with the USD declining across the board, if US bond prices collapse, they will lose out from both the decline in bond prices and the USD value. The fact that this potential exists will increase the probability of reserve asset managers shifting their USD reserve holdings to higher yielding currencies and assets.
What does this mean for currencies?
With nearly US$1 Trillion in foreign reserves, reallocation would have a significant effect on the USD. A 30% reallocation from dollars to Euros would equal to sales of $300 Billion dollars and purchases of the equivalent amount in Euros. Asian central banks are very active in the currency markets. If they decide that they are fed up with the USD decline and low yields and choose to reallocate their assets this would be a double blow on an already weak USD. This scenario is not completely unlikely, as Asian central banks are very sensitive to the activities of their neighbors. If China, one of the larger and more influential countries in the region announces that they are increasing non-dollar reserves, central banks in countries such as Thailand, Taiwan and Malaysia may do the same.
Therefore, Euro at 1.3000 is not too far fetched
As mentioned earlier, outside of this region Russia has already announced that they are increasing non-dollar reserves. The central bank deputy chairman Oleg Vyugin recently announced that they favor USD reserves at approximately 70% of total reserves. As of Dec 31, 2002, the central bank holds US$44 Billion in foreign reserves. Unofficial estimate puts current dollar reserves at 90% of total reserves. A 20% decrease in dollar reserves translates into a sale of US$8 Billion.
Of course, it is also important to mention that central bank reallocation usually is a gradual process. The central banks will not go out and sell $300 Billion dollars in one day. However, these factors and potential for asset reallocations will put negative pressure on the dollar in the long-term.
O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação
aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação
de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.
