Provavelmente para alguns não é novidade, :-), mas só agora reparei que o Jim Puplava tinha publicado no passado dia 3, mais um interessante artigo da saga "Storm Watch": The 'OK' (unbalanced and at risk) Economy
Ainda não li na totalidade, é um pouco extenso :-), vai ser a minha leitura de fim-de-semana...;-)
Intro:
«The easiest way to gain an understanding of the U.S. economy is to think in terms of four words: debt, consumption, speculation, and illusion. When looking at the U.S. economy from the perspective of these four words, it becomes easier to understand why the recovery isn’t shaping up like the cyclical recoveries of the past.
It has become a start and stop economy for the last two years. The economy picks up steam after stimulus is applied, then it begins to fizzle once that stimulus has been exhausted. Without the constant input of new stimulus—either through interest rate or tax cuts or deficit spending—the economy rolls over. It is a bubble economy where real economic growth has been anemic, job growth has been nonexistent, and business fixed investment has been absent.
This sputtering economy requires an ongoing stream of new stimulus just in order to keep it afloat. Compared to past recoveries, economic growth has been half of what it has averaged over the last half century. It is also the first time in history that the economy went into recession against a backdrop of rabid money and credit growth. Fed stimulus failed to keep the economy out of recession.
What makes this situation more worrisome is that it has taken 13 rate cuts, three tax cuts, massive government deficits, and record growth in money and credit just to keep the economy growing. In economic terms, it is the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus the world has ever seen. What does the Fed have to show for its efforts other than multiple bubbles and the return of speculation to the financial markets?»
Once the consumption fallacy is understood, it is much easier to see why the economy is breaking down. Businesses are trying desperately to conserve cash and maintain profits by slashing payrolls and cutting capital spending. Workers are losing their jobs and going deeper into debt in order to maintain living standards. Consumer spending increasingly goes towards the purchase of foreign made goods. The money spent on consumption is then transferred to foreign producers. These foreign producers then take those dollars and deposit them in their own domestic banks. Central banks in those countries then take those dollars and recycle them back into the U.S. by buying up our financial assets.
This represents the largest wealth transfer in history. The U.S. is trading all of its accumulated wealth and savings for consumable goods. Our monstrous size trade and current account deficits are a reflection of this fact.»
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