Deixo aqui um artigo que se refere a uma notícia que poderá (ou não) ter implicações na cotação do Ouro (via valorização do USD). Tem a ver com legislação já aprovada pelo Senado mas que ainda requer apreciação por parte de outros organismos (House Ways e Means Committee).
De seguida deixarei igualmente um comentário do Jim Sinclair relativo a este assunto.
A very sinister piece of news has made almost no headlines It is a piece of legislation that has been passed by the Senate and is just waiting for House approval, which most likely will be certain.
I took this excerpt from Forbes
“The Journal's coverage of the tax measure focuses on a provision to allow U.S. multinationals a one-year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25%, instead of the current 35% rate. The bill would also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working overseas.”
Full story http://www.forbes.com/2003/05/16/cx_da_0516topnews_print.html
If you did not get the implication of that message, let me elaborate on it. First, by allowing US multinationals to repatriate their earrings back to the US at a rate of 5.25% is tantamount to a 29% across the board cut in Taxes, which will more than push them to come to the US. This 29% break more than makes up for the current devaluation in the dollar. Who would not take such an offer? Its basically free money.
Now here is where the situation gets sticky. In order to repatriate that money the multinationals have to change from whatever currency they are currently holding to the US ollar, effectively they will be buying the US dollar and dumping their local currency.
This will have the effect of suddenly propping up and giving the US dollar strength, and as the dollars starts to gain, Gold will definitely be its victim. So it’s highly likely that Gold’s upward trajectory will be momentarily halted and that the day of reckoning will be postponed till after 2004.
Not only will the multinationals benefit from the 29% break, but they will also benefit as the US dollar starts to gain strength. Notice how this provision is only effective for one year, which coincides perfectly with the coming elections. The companies who take advantage of this offer early will be able to make another 10-15% gains as the currency appreciates, so in total they stand to gain upwards of 39%.
Based on this information, I have to recommend that individuals who have two gold portfolios (trading and long term) take precautionary measures and take profits from their trading portfolio’s as Gold is going to run into some potentially very strong resistance soon. We, at the Tactical Investor, have already advised our subscribers to take profits and will be sitting and watching this situation closely.
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