Many Wall Streeters are taking off the rest of '03 -- and that could make for some bumpy trading.
December 21, 2003: 9:48 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money senior writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's been a very good year, and in celebration plenty of Wall Streeters are knocking off for the rest of it.
And who can blame them? After the previous three years of a lousy economy, falling stocks, big-firm layoffs and shriveling bonuses, 2003 sure is worth celebrating. The Dow's up 23 percent, the Nasdaq's up 46 percent, money's flowing into mutual funds and holiday parties aren't the dirge-like affairs they were in 2002.
"You have Christmas, and you have a bunch of half days that nobody is going to work," said Larry Rice, vice president at Janney Montgomery Scott. "Plus, it's been a hell of a ski season so far."
Rice has worked in the stock market since 1969 and he's never taken the end of the year off. Until this year -- he cut out of his office on Friday.
It's nice to know that people are going to be getting some R&R -- it almost makes you think that Wall Street is actually letting a little Bob Cratchit into its life.
But it also means that trading volume in the Christmas week could be even thinner than usual, which could make things choppy. (For a line up of the week's key events, click here.)
"Everybody is done with the year now, so it's just going to be traders that dominate the tape," said Tony Dwyer, equity market strategist at FTN Midwest Research. "I think that you're going to see a lot of intraday volatility without much real movement."
It isn't until the new year, thinks Dwyer, that things get interesting again. Many of his clients seem to be holding off on putting on new positions now, for fear of blowing their years. Come January, they'll be in the market again and, abetted by the usual big influx of mutual fund cash, they'll be buying.
Rice, for his part, thinks there could be more gains before the year closes out. Institutionally, Wall Street wants to close out the year in good fashion -- in part to ensure that investors are in cheery mood at the beginning of the year when they're thinking about 401(k) allocations and where to put that bonus.
"The market wants to start next year on a good note," he said.
Key events in the week ahead
On Tuesday, the government reports personal income and spending data for November. Economists expect income to have risen 0.4 percent, holding steady from October's 0.4 percent rise, but forecast that spending jumped 0.7 percent after a flat reading in the prior month.
Economists expect the final reading on economic growth in the third quarter, also due Tuesday, to come in at 8.2 percent, unchanged from the prior reading.
The University of Michigan's revised reading on consumer sentiment for December, out Tuesday, is expected to rise to 91.0 from an earlier reading of 89.6.
Wednesday brings durable goods orders for November, which economists expect to rise 0.7 percent after gaining 3.3 percent higher in October.
Economists forecast new home sales, also out Wednesday, to will come in at an annualized rate of 1.11 million for November, up from 1.05 million in October.
U.S. markets will be closed Thursday in observance of Christmas. The stock market will close at 1 p.m. ET, Wednesday and Friday. Bond, commodity, and currency markets will close around noon ET Wednesday and Friday, while oil trading on the NYMEX is set to end at 1 p.m. ET
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