O problema é que um dia isto vai estoirar pela simples razão que não existe PRATA para satisfazer a procura. A posição short é astronómica, muito maior do que a que existe no OURO.
Lê este excerto de um artigo do Brian Bloom, um analista australiano, em que ele alerta para os desequilíbrios entre oferta e procura:
To me, the most important factor in the silver market is that there is a serious imbalance in supply/demand having arisen from the greed (and outright stupidity) of the speculators.
In the week ended January 27th, 2004 the outstanding short positions of the traders (Commitments of Traders) was as follows:
Silver: 85,902 contracts, representing 429 million ounces ( equal to roughly NINE MONTHS of total world mine production of around 586 million ounces p.a.)
Gold: 132,970 contracts, representing 13.3 million ounces (equal to roughly only TWO MONTHS of total world mine production of around 83 million ounces p.a.)
A further factor of significance is that total world demand for silver is around 838 million ounces, of which photography represents around 200 million ounces. (Source: www.silverinstitute.org/supply/index.php)
IT FOLLOWS THAT EVEN IF DEMAND FOR PHOTOGRAPHY FELL TO ZERO, TOTAL ANNUAL DEMAND WOULD STILL EXCEED ANNUAL MINE PRODUCTION.
Of course, there has also been a supply of silver from above ground sources of around 250 million ounces p.a. (including, most recently, 70 million ounces from government sources which are now drying up). But what should also be focussed on is that the primary remaining source of above-ground silver is "scrap recycling" of around 180 million ounces, and the primary source of silver scrap is PHOTOGRAPHY!
The Silver Bears cannot have it both ways. If digital is going to decimate the demand for silver film, it is also going to decimate the supply of scrap from silver film.
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