Na conferência de imprensa o presidente do BCE foi mais optimista do que se esperava, em minha opinião, alertando para o facto de que os últimos dados têm sido mistos, mas afirmando que não existe evidências de que o reforço da economia da zona euro esteja em causa. Aqui fica um extracto do comunicado.
"On the basis of our regular economic and monetary analysis, we have not changed our assessment that the current stance of monetary policy remains in line with the maintenance of price stability over the medium term. Accordingly, the key ECB interest rates have been left unchanged. The low level of interest rates also provides ongoing support to the economic recovery in the euro area. We will continue to monitor carefully all developments that could affect our assessment of risks to price stability over the medium term.
Let me now provide a more detailed explanation of our decision, turning first to the economic analysis. With regard to real GDP growth, it appears that the recovery in the euro area has continued into 2004, following quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 0.3-0.4% in the second half of 2003. Recently released data on production and demand as well as confidence indicators have been mixed, implying some short-term uncertainty, while preliminary information available after the tragic events in Madrid on 11 March does not suggest a major impact on confidence. We will continue to monitor the situation closely. On balance, there is currently no evidence challenging the assessment of continued, though modest, real GDP growth in the euro area over the short term.
More fundamentally, the conditions remain in place for the recovery to continue in 2004 and to strengthen over time. First, global economic growth is robust and broadly based, both geographically and across sectors, thereby providing a positive external environment for the euro area. In this context, we expect euro area exports to grow significantly this year and next, despite some past losses in price competitiveness.
Second, on the domestic side, investment should be helped by favourable financing conditions, an improvement in corporate earnings and spillover effects from global demand trends. Some signs of an improvement in fixed capital investment are already discernible in the Eurostat data for the fourth quarter of last year. As regards private consumption, growth in real disposable income should lead to increased spending, in particular because there are no financial constraints for households which would pose obstacles to higher expenditure. Over time this should also be fostered by an improvement in employment and employment expectations.
This is our assessment and it is supported by the available forecasts and projections. Obviously, any such forward-looking evaluation is conditional and subject to risks. At this juncture, risks are primarily related to the persistent imbalances in some regions of the world and the weakness of private consumption in the euro area. Concerning private consumption, European citizens who still perceive that inflation is higher than measured by official indices should be assured that the official measures are accurate and that we will continue to maintain price stability in the future. ... Turning to price developments, we expect some short-term volatility in HICP inflation rates to continue. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, annual inflation in the HICP was 1.6% in March, unchanged from February and down from 1.9% in January. However, over the coming months, annual inflation rates could edge up again, on account of less favourable base effects and increases in indirect taxes."
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