A este teu comentário gostava de acrescentar um importante dado que muitas vezes não é referido, talvez por falta de feader para o mesmo, o VOLUME que vem diminuindo cada vez mais à medida que os índices se aproximam e testam as referências de alta de médio-prazo.
O Market WrapUp de ontem no FinancialSense pelo Ike Iossif é bem elucidativo sobre esta questão.
----------------------------
"The popular indices concluded a second week of price gains. In fact, they have rallied 8 out of the last 11 trading days, during which the Dow gained 3.75%, the SP500 gained 4.4%, and NASDAQ gained 5.5%. In studying the price/volume data of the past 11 days, we can make two very interesting observations:
1) The pattern of the advance has been a "V" type, and
2) Volume has been shrinking on a daily basis.
The charts of the DIA, SPY, MDY, and QQQ provide an excellent visual example of the negative correlation that we have witnessed between price and volume during the rally of the past eleven days. Notice that the higher the price, the lesser the volume that accompanied the move. To give you an even more clear idea of the relationship that has prevailed over the last 11 days, we have posted a table under the charts listing the daily price gain/loss, the daily volume, and the percent change in volume from one day to the next for the two most popular ETFs, the SPY, and the QQQ. Notice that the SPY gained--on average--0.40% per day, while at the same time the accompanying volume--on average--shrank 4% per day. In the case of the QQQ, it gained--on average--0.53% per day, while volume--on average--shrank 3% per day. NO RALLY CAN CONTINUE MUCH LONGER AT THE CURRENT RATE OF DECREASE IN VOLUME ON A DAILY BASIS. AT THIS RATE, IN 4 WEEKS, VOLUME FOR THE SPY WOULD BE ZERO! Sharp "V" shape advances that are accompanied by a consistently diminishing volume, are the dominant characteristics of short covering rallies. Before we continue further with our analysis, we need to make an important point: Not EVERY "V" shape advance, accompanied by shrinking volume is a short covering rally; however, EVERY short covering rally is "V" shaped, and it is accompanied by shrinking volume. Moreover, a rally being born out of short covering is not necessarily bearish; most rallies do start due to short covering. If real buyers step in and continue to buy with conviction--after short sellers are done covering--then the rally becomes a legitimate one, and usually turns out to be one of intermediate duration.
Given what we just described, there are three scenarios that in our view can take place going forward.
1) Since the current advance is displaying the characteristics of a short-covering rally, more than likely that is what it will turn out to be. If that is the case, real buyers who are committed to the long side need to step up to the plate and begin buying; otherwise, once the short-sellers are done covering in the absence of new buying interest, the rally will be abruptly aborted. Our Buy/Sell Equilibrium Indexes are indicating that given the current rate of short-covering, short-sellers will be done sometime this week. Consequently, the indices may get--in the coming week--a boost of 1.5% to 2.0%, courtesy of short sellers covering the remaining of their short positions. However, unless real buyers come into the market after the holiday weekend and push prices higher, 1.5%-2.0% is all that the current rally has left in it under the existing circumstances. NO RALLY CAN CONTINUE MUCH LONGER AT THE CURRENT RATE OF DECREASE IN VOLUME ON A DAILY BASIS.
2) How about if we are not dealing with a short-covering rally; how about if the bulk of the buying that we have witnessed the last 11 days is from real buyers; does that change anything? Does the picture turn bullish? Actually, NO! If the action of the past eleven days reflects real buying, instead of short-covering, then the markets could be in deep trouble rather shortly. Why? Because, there are only two explanations for such low participation; either a large number of traders/investors haven't return from their vacations yet, or almost everybody is already fully invested expecting the much advertised but elusive election year rally, and thus, there are very few--if any--left to buy. If that is the case, then the markets can experience a rather large decline unfolding over the next 3-5 weeks. NO RALLY CAN CONTINUE MUCH LONGER AT THE CURRENT RATE OF DECREASE IN VOLUME ON A DAILY BASIS.
3) The third possible scenario--and the most bullish of the three--is that many institutional/ individual investors are still on vacation, thus, although the markets may pull back to support this week, the week after when all these willing, ready and able buyers come back, they will provide the demand necessary to carry the markets higher into the election, or even into the end of the year.
From a return-to-risk point of view, the most ideal situation would be if the markets rallied another 1.5%-2% and then they reversed; in that case we would be willing to short the markets heavily. We would not be interested in the long side unless we saw the indices rallying on increased volume. We would like to see daily volume exceeding by 10%-15% its 45 day moving average in order to warm up to the long side."
O Clubeinvest.com informa que nenhuma da informação
aqui facultada deverá ser entendida como conselho ou recomendação
de qualquer tipo de transacção ou investimento.
