Um pouco em resposta a quem shortou no topo do canal.
Don Delavan
SBRB Management Corp.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 chart below shows a much weaker picture than the DJIA chart. Green Wave A down for SPX started on 3/24//00 and ended on 10/10/02. SPX fell -784 points or -50.5% during Wave A down while DJIA fell only -38.7%. Its green Wave B up may have completed today with a truncated black 5 of C up. Wave B up for SPX has retraced only 50% of its Wave A down while the DJIA has retraced 78% of its Wave A down.
But then green Wave C down should start soon and last for about the same amount of time as Wave B up lasted. Wave C down is known for its relentlessly falling prices, and the chart is showing SPX dropping to around 380-400 by the fall of 2006 with the bottom of the current 4-year cycle. Thus, the magnitude of Wave C might be the same magnitude of its Wave A down. So the next decline will be just black wave 1 of green Wave C down.
The 1998-2002 4-year cycle was bearish because it ended lower than it started. Since its 4-year moving average is still pointing down and is acting as resistance, the current 4-year cycle is still bearish. Its 4-year moving average has crossed below its 8-year moving average, which is a very bearish sign for the remainder of this 4-year cycle. The last time that a similar crossover occurred after a multi-year bull market was in 1971, and that bear market continued until 1982. The 8-year moving average will probably turn down later this year.
The wave count becomes more obvious when you look at the following chart of the SPX/VIX ratio. Because VIX usually moves opposite of SPX, this ratio amplifies the top and bottoms of waves. This ratio is just 2 points below its previous high in late August 2000 just before SPX fell in half in 23 months. The last several months have been similar to the summer 2000 when SPX was making lower highs while VIX was making lower lows, causing these ratios to rise, i.e., higher complacency without higher prices. What's amazing is that SPX closed today -25.6% below its 9/1/00 close when this ratio last peaked, and VIX closed today -27.7% lower than on 9/1/00. In other words, investor complacency is about 27% higher now than on 9/1/00 just before SPX fell in half in 23 months, even though price does not confirm this high level of complacency!
Mas isto de achar topos é muito difícil, por isso talvez seja melhor esperar mais um pouco para tomar decisões.
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