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The Dollar Implications Are Less Clear?
Bush Is Bad For The Dollar - Taking a look at history, Republican Presidents tend to be more positive for the dollar than Democratic Presidents. However, given the stagnant labor market, the Bush Administration would be ill advised to do anything other than maintain the “soft dollar” policy that has been enhancing the competitiveness of American manufacturers and multinationals. Furthermore, Bush’s bid to make permanent the tax cuts from his election-year plan threatens to erode confidence in the greenback by creating persistently wider fiscal deficits. The 10-year cost of such an extension could be between 1 and 2 trillion dollars. Although the President has promised to cut the federal budget deficit in half over the next five years, making the tax cut permanent would make it very difficult for him to achieve this goal. Although some may argue that the less negative dollar ramifications of the incumbent President’s reelection may be less applicable in the upcoming election, markets (and the dollar) have generally welcomed a steady financial policy.
Kerry Would Be Worse - However, a Kerry victory may be even worse for the dollar. New presidents tend to often administer “bitter medicine” to correct economic problems once they take office in what may be taken as “correcting the previous administration’s problems,” creating uncertainty and hurting growth. Although he advocates more fiscal responsibility, his policies may lead to looser monetary policy and hence a slower pace of rate hikes. As mentioned earlier, his policies could also threaten growth and external confidence in the dollar. Furthermore, Kerry is more supportive of protectionism and barriers to free trade. As for offshore outsourcing, Kerry has come out against its use in government contracts and favors a Consumers’ “Right to Know” on Call Center Workers policy aimed at stifling the movement of these jobs abroad. The allure of the US economy and its markets stems from their flexibility, adaptability and openness. Protectionism is an antithesis to all of this, and the dollar tends to deteriorate when financial markets sense even a trace of it. It is important to mention that some international investors believe that Kerry’s foreign policies would be more inclusive and viewed positively. This could potentially reduce some of the risk premium that foreigners may have placed on US assets.
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